When special counsel Robert Mueller brought charges against former Donald Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort in Virginia and D.C., Manafort did a curious thing: He split the charges. Given the option to consolidate the two cases in D.C., he chose instead to proceed in both jurisdictions. Maybe he thought it was more likely he could get the charges dropped on a jurisdictional argument in Virginia; maybe he thought the jury would be more favorable. Whatever the reason, he chose to face two cases rather than one.
Manafort tried his luck getting out of the charges in both Virginia and D.C.; that was a no-go in both courts. His prison shenanigans-seeking delay only won him a spot at a less comfortable jail closer to the court. His bid to get evidence suppressed didn’t succeed, either.
Now, having been convicted on eight of the 18 charges against him in Virginia, facing a maximum of 10 years in prison, Manafort’s given up fighting, it seems. He pleaded guilty on Friday to two counts: conspiracy against the United States, and conspiracy to obstruct justice by witness tampering. Prosecutors have released few details: Manafort’s forfeiting $46 million in assets and has to abide by a 17-page cooperation agreement with Mueller that spells out full cooperation.
Why’d he plead guilty?
After all, by pleading guilty and offering full cooperation, Manafort’s burned the Trump bridge. Recall that the last time Trump publicly praised Manafort, it was because Manafort hadn’t yet flipped.
Trump not only really, really hates ‘flippers’—he thinks flipping should be illegal.
So, why’d Manafort do it? Trump was sending less than subtle signals that Manafort could look forward to favorable treatment—cough, pardon—if he refused to flip.
I have two theories.
The first is that Manafort decided Trump wasn’t going to pardon him, at least not any time soon.
Trump has sought advice from his lawyers on the possibility of pardoning Manafort and other aides accused of crimes, his attorney Rudolph W. Giuliani previously told the Washington Post, and was counseled against pardoning anyone involved in the ongoing probe. The president agreed to wait at least until the investigation concludes, Giuliani has said.
If he no longer believed he could count on a pardon, flipping would be the best option for both Manafort and his family. He may even have pleaded even if he had hope of a pardon because a pardon from Trump wouldn’t protect his assets; a plea deal may leave his family in a better position.
Second theory: This is Manafort’s Hail Mary. He flipped and cooperated because he knows that the others who have ‘flipped’ will reveal additional crimes that haven’t yet come to light.
Manafort has to be the most significant addition to the growing ‘flipper’ club. He joins former business associates Rick Gates and Sam Patten, former national security adviser Michael Flynn, Gates and Manafort lawyer Alex van der Zwaan, and former foreign policy advisor George Papadopoulos. Lest Manafort have any thoughts about less-than-full cooperation, he’s got Papadopoulos’s recent two-week prison sentence for lying as proof that the FBI isn’t playing around.