When it comes to Trump and his base there is this concept of “the other.” I think it’s fair to say that for Trump voters the “other” is black & brown people and Democrats/liberal regardless of their skin color/ethnicity. But the real question is how Trump himself (and GOP elected folks for that matter) defines “the other.”
I figure most people here have heard or read about one Crystal Minton of FL, a Trump supporter and federal worker complaining about the effect of the shutdown on her & her family. The portion profiling her is at the end of the story, concluding with the memorable final paragraph:
“I voted for him, and he’s the one who’s doing this,” she said of Mr. Trump. “I thought he was going to do good things. He’s not hurting the people he needs to be hurting.” (emphasis added)
Much has been written and said about Ms. Minton and her sentiments including here on DK. There is plenty of agreement as to the notion that her attitude is to be expected from Trump voters. Various things have been said, some of which have been (deservedly IMHO) less than kind and even cutting towards Ms. Minton and others like her. They center around the concept of “So they are shocked, shocked I say that this is hurting me & my family instead of those people. WTF? Did Trump voters actually think they were special? In some protected class?” Well, obviously the answer is yes, they really did believe only black or brown people, and also for “good” measure Democrats/liberals would be affected — or to put a finer point on it “hurt.” As far as I’m concerned if they want sympathy they can look for it in the dictionary.
It does however raise an interesting prospect which started rattling around in the back of my mind even before polling I saw today indicating cracks might be forming with Trump’s base supporters. From the linked NPR article:
"For the first time, we saw a fairly consistent pattern of having his base showing evidence of a cracking," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. "Don't know if that's temporary — tied to the government shutdown — or a broader problem the president is having."
It’s been noted that Trump assumes all federal workers are Democrats. It’s fair to say that in the DC area (not that he knows it all that well) Democrats on the federal payroll probably do outnumber Republicans. However 800,000 federal workers are affected by the shutdown and a much larger number than Trump ever imagined work outside the DC area or even the mid-Atlantic. The same is true of federal contractors. I have a high school pal who initially was delighted when we connected back up on FB back when I was still active on that site. I live in the Raleigh, NC area and he’s down in Fayetteville & owns his own business and has federal contracts. He’s been a die-hard Trump guy from the get go & when he found out I consider Trump a fraudulent, worthless P.O.S. (initially when we first talked on the phone it was catching up on almost forty years since we’d last seen each other) his invitation to have me start coming down to go fishing together again like the old days evaporated. We haven’t spoken in almost two years now. But I can’t help but wonder how he’s feeling, wondering about meeting payroll with no one in the govt. to process his invoices. Being a contractor who actually knows something about heavy equipment and having been in war zones supplying and operating it and maint. facilities including the kind of stuff say that can help build walls in his heart he knows it takes a helluva lot more than an actual wall to stop someone with determination to go over or under it. Or cut or blast their way through.
I’m sure he’s far from the only federal contractor taking a hard look at things and maybe, probably working like hell to justify continuing to blindly support Trump, Then there are all the federal workers in red states. For example here’s a list of IRS processing centers, each of which employs several thousand or more people with certain ones highlighted by me:
Andover Service Center 310 Lowell Street Andover, MA
Atlanta Service Center 4800 Buford Highway Chamblee, GA
Austin Service Center 3651 S. Interregional Highway 35 Austin, TX
Memphis Service Center 5333 independent Road Memphis, TN
Cincinnati Service Center 201 W. Rivercenter Boulevard Stop 11 Covington, KY
Fresno Service Center 5045 E. Butler Avenue Fresno, CA
Kansas City Service Center 2306 E. Bannister Road Kansas City, MO
Ogden Service Center 1973 N. Rulon White Blvd. Ogden, UT
Philadelphia Service Center 11601 Roosevelt Boulevard Philadelphia, PA
Got that? And keep in mind the Covington, KY facility (here’s looking at you McTurtle!) is across the river from Cincinnati. As in Ohio which is another red state these days. That’s a major employer in each one of those states. All going without paychecks and missing rent, mortgage, car & credit cards payments and who knows what else — which will hit the credit ratings of all those employees and their spouses even though eventually the federal employees at least will get their back pay. Those credit score company computers won’t forget. And for people living paycheck to paycheck and trying to get out from under something that wasn’t their fault to begin with will be difficult if not impossible. Do you think the credit rating companies will give rat’s ass about customer service and be sympathetic? Have you ever tried dealing with these people?
The IRS is just one example. All those folks out west who pride themselves on their ruggedness and “don’t need no damn gubmint” yet work in the National Park system, the Forest Service and so on are scattered throughout those mountain west states that also happen to be Trump/GOP country. Then there are the small businesses (another GOP constituency) who depend on federal workers coming to their restaurants and other businesses who aren’t doing so anymore. And all the employees who’s hours have been cut or have been laid off. Even in a place like DC this will hurt, and the effect will be far greater in those states in the Midwest, South and Southwest.
Then there’s the Coast Guard, the only branch of the armed services outside the umbrella of the DOD. The other branches are still getting paid but they have to be taking a hard look at what’s happening to the Coasties. And many of the four branches still getting paid have spouses/partners who are federal employees or contractors who are affected by the shutdown and not getting paid. Trump’s support in the military has already been startlingly low for a Republican and the Officer corps has actually had lower approval ratings than enlisted from the start which is truly shocking.
IOW, even though it’s only part of the government that’s in shutdown mode it’s a bunch of departments that really hurt, particularly in numerous red states and even constituencies scattered around the country.
“He’s not hurting the people he needs to be hurting.” What they haven’t realized but might, only might I must note be starting to get through their heads is that as far as Trump is concerned the only Republicans worth protecting from harm are the GOP donor class. Rich people. Not even well off Republicans who might donate the maximum allowed by law qualify as rich enough to worry about. We know Trump doesn’t read anything longer than a one pager that’s large type and bullet pointed and is sprinkled with praise of him and his “awesomeness.” But somewhere along the line books like What’s The Matter With Kansas was explained to him and like any con man he realized a whole slew of working class up through relatively well off middle class folks people would vote for him just because he ran as a Republican and spouted some conservative red meat applause lines with a mix of catering to KKKristian values types. They’ve never been anything but sheep to be shorn to Donald Trump.
Only time will tell but his polls numbers have dropped during the shutdown and blame is squarely placed on him and the GOP. He’s not helping with himself by cancelling the plane for a CODEL to Afghanistan with a stop in Brussels to meet with NATO over the long weekend — and then turning around and using the very same plane that was going to fly those Congress folks (which included Speaker Pelosi which is why he cancelled the plane of course) was repurposed to fly the First Lady to their winter home. Mar A Lago. By herself. On a freaking Air Force owned and operated 757! If only with Shep Smith and Chris Wallace even Fox will mention that one tomorrow!
Right now that NPR/Marist poll provides only one data point. But Speaker Pelosi has been handing Trump’s ass to him. Using her as a foil in combination with “The invading hordes of brown people are coming” leading up to the midterms failed miserably. That’s WHY it’s Speaker Pelosi instead of Minority Leader Pelosi for chrissakes! Now there are even folks on the teevee flatly saying he’s afraid of Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh. Being accused (and knowing his base is hearing it too) is bad enough for Trump but as I said in another diary yesterday the fact Coulter is a woman has to be eating him alive. But again, his base voters are hearing the very same thing. And a LOT of them are either being affected by going without paychecks or have a family member or friend who is doing so. Or a business owner getting screwed because all those federal workers haven’t been patronizing their businesses.
Including and especially in red states.
Falling polls numbers and especially the poll I linked to indicate some real cracks in his armor. With everything else going on including the drip drip of news about Michael Cohen’s upcoming testimony (and a real bombshell that dropped while I’ve been writing this) Trump is in the news alright. But he’s not even close to controlling it. Neither is the GOP. It seems like every time they’ve tried to seize control of the narrative lately and this week (so far) in particular it’s backfired and made things worse. We keep hearing about behind the scenes loss of support with Republicans on the Hill. Trump might have taken consolation in McTurtle browbeating enough Senators to hold the line on letting the administrations lift sanction on a major Russian oligarch & Putin pal (wonder what U.S. aluminum companies and workers feel about that one) but today a hundred thirty or so Republicans joined Democrats in the House and voted overwhelmingly to keep the sanctions in place. Given the mix of the eleven Senators that bucked Trump on the issue and so many Representatives, all of whom worry about their own re-elections down the road I can’t help but wonder if what they’ve been hearing was predictive of what the poll I’ve cited indicates.
Which is that actual cracks have opened up in Trump’s (and the GOP’s since it’s his Party now) base.
Because rank & file GOP/Trump voters are starting to think the unthinkable — that as far as Trump and GOP elected folks are concerned they too are part of those “other” people. The ones they thought Trump would be hurting. I’m not about to go hoping they will go bat shit crazy and actually think about voting for a Democrat. But I’ll settle for them being disgusted and staying home when it comes time to vote.