The math seems inexorable. 47 Democrats means we are 20 Republican votes short of two-thirds of the Senate. Just assume things are bad enough that those 20 votes are conceivable — who might they come from? Look at the list below, and the reasons they might decide that saving the Republic is worth their vote. Maybe it’s not so unimaginable after all.
Half-a-Dozen Usual Suspects:
They don’t do it very often, but these are the Senators most willing to buck the Squatter in the White House to date, based on FiveThirtyEight’s vote tracking and PVI scores:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
Senator |
Votes w/ Trump |
Trump +/- |
Susan Collins ME |
67% |
+23% |
Rand Paul KY |
68% |
-20% |
Mike Lee UT |
73% |
-7% |
Lisa Murkowski AK |
75% |
-2% |
Mitt Romney UT |
81% |
+8% |
Jerry Moran KS |
83% |
0% |
(The +/- score shows how their actual vote percentage compares with expectations based on how red their state is — positive means they really could get away with dissenting more often, given their electorate.)
The Terrified Candidates
These are the handful of Senators who could be eager to throw the Cheeto-in-Chief overboard, if it’s the only way to save their jobs next November, based on Morning Consult’s net approval / disapproval ratings for the 2020 class:
morningconsult.com/…
Senator |
Approval |
Disapproval |
Thom Tillis NC |
33% |
38% |
Cory Gardner CO |
36% |
39% |
Martha McSally AZ |
39% |
37% |
Joni Ernst IA |
39% |
43% |
Halfway there...
What Passes for Moderates Nowadays
Another handful who are the least frothing-at-the-mouth right-wingers, based on DW-Nominate scores:
voteview.com/...
Senator |
DW score |
Shelley Moore Capito WV |
.26 |
Lamar Alexander TN |
.32 |
Chuck Grassley IA |
.35 |
Rob Portman OH |
.37 |
Just for context, Susan Collins is .11, Ted Cruz is .82 (and Bernie Sanders is -.52).
Yes, Virginia, a Few Republicans Still Have a Shred of Integrity
Finally, it’s totally subjective, but based on their history / personality / recent statements, some Republicans might actually do something because they think it’s the right thing to do. Some of them are retiring, some are iconoclasts in general, and some seem like they simply care about their country:
Senator |
(random notes) |
Johnny Isakson GA |
Retiring |
Richard Shelby AL |
Prob Retiring in 2022 |
Rick SCott FL |
Not beholden to the party |
Richard BURR NC |
Intel Committee |
Deb Fischer Ne |
Cover from her junior senator? |
Ben Sasse NE |
Pretty vocal so far |
If you don’t like some of these names, maybe you think there’s a better chance with Tim Scott, or Mario Rubio (especially paired with Rick Scott), or even Mike Lee. Hell, maybe Dan Sullivan, or one of those upper Midwest Senators who just can’t take it anymore, no matter how conservative their voting record.
Obviously some of these categories overlap, you could list the same people more than once. But count up the rows — whoa, that’s 20 senators!
And of course, if the rest of the rats detect a sinking ship, the ultimate number would be much more than 20. But that dynamic only kicks in, if the lunch-room chatter starts to generate rumors of getting to 20. Which is maybe not as impossible as Moscow Mitch wants us to think!