On Friday, former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore told a conservative radio show that he was “seriously considering” seeking the GOP nod for another campaign against Democratic Sen. Doug Jones. Moore was Team Red’s nominee in the 2017 special and lost 50-48 after multiple women accused him of preying on them when they were teenagers. Moore never conceded defeat to Jones (nor has he conceded his 2006 and 2010 primary losses for governor) and continued to raise money for what he called an “election integrity program” months after that contest.
Moore began making noises about running last month, with Jones all but daring him to jump in. Unsurprisingly, national Republicans had the opposite reaction, with the NRSC’s executive director telling the Washington Examiner, “The NRSC’s official stance is ABRM: anyone but Roy Moore.”
It’s tough to see Moore winning the GOP nod again after all that happened in 2017. It doesn’t help him that Alabama requires a runoff in primary contests where no one earns a majority of the vote, so he couldn’t just get through a crowded field to win with only a plurality of the vote.
However, a Moore-Jones rematch isn’t something we can rule out. Moore has long had a solid base of support among Alabama’s numerous social conservative voters, and that may not have changed even after the 2017 race. Moore has always claimed that the numerous women who accused him were part of a conspiracy against him, and plenty of his fans, including one in the White House, agreed with him. However, that doesn’t mean Donald Trump will be so keen to see him run again.
While Trump ardently supported Moore in the general election even after his accusers came forward, he’s used Moore as a cautionary tale since then. Most notably, in a 2018 primary for New York’s 11th Congressional District, Trump tweeted his support for incumbent Dan Donovan. Trump also implored voters to reject former Rep. Mike Grimm, who had spent seven months in prison for tax evasion, telling them that Donovan “will win for the Republicans in November...and his opponent will not. Remember Alabama.” (Donovan won, but contrary to Trump’s prediction, he lost in in November to Democrat Max Rose.)
Trump can be incredibly fickle with who he views as a friend and who he sees as an enemy, but if he too remembers Alabama, it could be very tough for Moore to take the GOP nod. Moore’s supporters (as well as Democrats who hope he’ll be the GOP nominee again) will certainly remember that in 2017, Moore won the GOP nomination even though Trump was supporting appointed Sen. Luther Strange. However, Trump still spoke well of Moore throughout that campaign, even saying during what was supposed to be a rally for Strange that he “might have made a mistake” by not backing Moore instead.
Things could go very differently, though, in a primary where Trump was actually opposing Moore. In today’s environment, where a tweet from Trump is often the biggest factor in deciding who wins or loses a GOP primary, that distinction could make all the difference.
