A Jim Krane article in Forbes discusses the stakes of continued conflict with Iran.
If reprisals continue, we’ll soon be at war. That would be a tragedy. It would also hurt our vital interests.
For starters, war with Iran makes attacks on the US homeland, on American troops, and on US allies far more likely.
Although Iran does not yet have nuclear weapons, it does have chemical weapons and capability to produce biological weapons. Iran also has missile delivery systems and perhaps unconventional stockpiles outside the country. One analyst suggests the possibility of reprisal by “dirty bombs” in US cities.
By risking war, is Trump’s brinkmanship somehow dissuading Iran from seeking nuclear weapons?
Wishful thinking. US hostility has a better chance of doing the exact opposite.
There is no question that Iran abided by the commitments it made in 2015. It opened its nuclear sites to inspection, dismantled most of its centrifuges, handed its uranium stocks to Russia, and even poured concrete into the reactor core that might have given it weapons-grade plutonium.
Trump’s re-imposition of sanctions – despite Iran’s compliance – was a major strategic blunder. It reinvigorated Iranian hardliners, who now have evidence that Washington can only be counted on for one thing: betrayal.
Iranian hardliners are finding a receptive audience for their more worrying message. Until it develops a nuclear weapon like North Korea’s, Iran will be unable to deter a US attack or embargo, or even win the respect of its neighbors.
Is there anything the Trump administration can do to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran?
www.forbes.com/...
The reality of the decision to not attack Iran is more complicated considering the incompetence of Trump.