American farmers have been hit especially hard by Trump’s trade war with China. Soybean sales have at times been entirely cut off by the Chinese government and despite booming demand for pork due to disease in other regions, retaliatory tariffs on pork by China have caused a glut of inventory and falling prices to hit American hog farmers. Under the Trump administration, farmer bankruptcy is up; debt load and mental health crises are near record highs.
Trump’s foolish trade practices are hitting farmers on another front. New data from Japan’s trade ministry confirms previous reporting from the Nikkei Review that despite imports of meat soaring, Japanese imports of American pork have also fallen over 3%. Imports of beef have risen, but up to 20 times slower than imports from other countries.
Unlike China, Japan has largely not retaliated against the Trump administration’s tariffs on Japanese steel and aluminum in the interest of diplomatic ties with the United States. Tariffs on agricultural products remain unchanged and the United States even enjoys favorable inspection procedures at the port of entry. The problem that’s killing the competitiveness of American farmers is instead increased access to the Japanese market for rival suppliers.
Perhaps the Trump administration thought that when they pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, that would kill the deal and usher in an end to the rest of the global trade order. The other member states, however, decided that instead of waiting helplessly for the US they would simply forge ahead without. Japan’s new trade deals with the former TPP members (excluding the United States) and a separate recent trade agreement the European Union, along with several older deals with South and Central American countries, have opened the world’s third largest economy to virtually every meat farmer in the developed world...unless that farmer is an American.
Now, the same American farmers that put Trump in office are calling for Japan to open its markets up to them. It won’t be free, desperate to shore up falling support with farmers before the 2020 election, Trump is trying to rush a trade agreement through with Japan that would grant Japanese automakers greater access to the US market in return for granting American farmers the same access as CPTPP members. Despite complaining about the trade deficit with Japan, such a move by Trump would certainly dramatically expand this deficit as nearly 2/3 of it already comes from Japanese auto imports under current tariffs.