Let me start with the caveats…
Yes, it’s early.
Yes, we have to work hard.
Yes, we should NOT get complacent.
Yes, we need to vote.
Yes, we (all other variations of not counting your eggs before they’ve hatched).
This entire preamble is to head off comments that boil down to “we need to worry about winning”, “we can’t assume anything” etc. I am well aware of all of that.
This diary is also not intended as prediction, rather for conversation. If you Google “Trump” and “landslide” a whole bunch of Republican-friendly scenarios emerge. Those results and scenarios include wishful thinking by tools such as Hannity and Guiliani. Others are political porn published by right-wing websites.
But if you look for “Landslide against Trump”, “Trump loses in landslide” you do not find much in the way of possibilities. Indeed, of the possible outcomes for 2020 it comes down to Trump landslide, Trump narrow victory and Democratic narrow victory as the three most popular scenarios. There is a lot of credence to those, especially considering that Trump is an incumbent and incumbents tend to win reelection. Analysts like Rachel Bitcofer predicts a close election (and she hit the election bullseye for 2018). That’s the smart money.
So Is An Anti-Trump Landslide Impossible?
Nothing in politics is impossible. Trump has given us a litany of bad examples of that. Him losing in a landslide is possible granted you will need elements present. Here is where you get into scenarios. How could an anti-Trump landslide come about? What factors would be in play to peel away enough states and voters? In today’s polarized times what is the ceiling on a landslide?
For starters, let’s acknowledge that an incumbent president losing in a landslide is not common. The last time an incumbent president lost a race was 1992 when Bill Clinton put George H.W. Bush out to pasture. That race was also not a landslide, although it’s remarkable looking at places on the map that were blue that year with the South still mid-transition to the GOP.
To get to a true landslide loss for a presidential incumbent you have to go back further, all the way back to 1980. That’s when Ronald Reagan cleaned Jimmy Carter’s clock. For those of you wanting a strong repudiation of Trump’s policies, personality and competence, you’re hoping for a Democratic version of 1980 in 2020.
Look at the margins in that race. Carter lost by about 9% nationally. Nearly all of the country turned red. It’s noteworthy that right now Trump is trailing most Democratic candidates by larger margins than this. If those margins translated into electoral outcomes you would have a very blue map. Yet that margin will likely tighten as we approach Election Day 2020. The Democratic candidate will come into focus and be attacked by Trump and the Republican/campaign apparatus. Trump’s incumbent advantage may also buoy him upwards.
How Trump Loses In A Landslide
So how do we get to 1980, or at least the 2020 version where Trump loses in a landslide? There are several key factors that could combine to crush Trump by 9 points or more. Let’s take each of them in turn below.
1. The Economy Slows. The economy already appears to be showing signs of cracks and slowing. Some industries are already contracting. The worst case scenario for Trump is continued slowing over the next 6 months and then falling into an outright recession in Q2 and Q3 of next year. If that happens his numbers are not likely to improve and may drop further from where he is now. Even the economic numbers slowing without an outright recession may be enough for the Democratic candidate to stiff arm him with the “are you better off than you were in 2016” line of attack.
2. Record Turnout. The 2020 Election is predicted to have one of the highest turnout rates in recent memory. The 2008 Election is the recent high bar for the Democrats with 61.6% turnout. Predictions for 2020 turnout range from 60 to 70%. Let’s be more conservative and say that it just beats 1960 at 64%. Yes, that higher turnout can help the GOP in spots (see Florida in 2016 and key Senate races in 2018). However, the Democrats have higher ceilings in red-to-purpling states like North Carolina, Georgia, Texas and Arizona.
3. Trump Remains Trump. This is the most reliable factor, but one that is needed. If Trump suddenly tied his shoes and wasn’t disgustingly awful for a week the media would begin to slobber that the long awaited pivot to presidential has finally arrived, and just in time for term 2 by golly! GAG. As we have seen, that is unlikely. Trump handled, Trump careful, eventually devolves into who Trump is, which is to say an awful person (and that doesn’t even touch on politics). It’s likely that Trump continues to be Trump and in fact may heighten the worst aspects of his personality and presidency to motivate the worst aspects of the electorate (Republicans) to turn out. That’s fine for Republicans. Not fine with Democrats. And not fine for independents, fence sitters or people who only tune in near the end of the race. Trump will keep reminding voters why we do not want another 4 years of him.
4. The Democrats Are Competent. Notice that I haven’t said much about the Democratic party directly. #2 relates to their efforts, but what about the candidates themselves? First and foremost, the Democrats need to run a strong campaign in 2020, whomever the nominee is, for a landslide. You might get a closer victory with a mediocre campaign, but for landslide you need prime time. We can argue about what that looks like, but in short they need to put forward a compelling, alternative vision to Trump’s leadership. In 1980 it was a combination of a weak campaign by Carter (that was part of a pattern as his 1976 campaign almost let Ford make the comeback of comebacks), as well as a strong campaign by Reagan. Take either of those away and the margin of victory would have been much narrower.
5. Undecideds Break Against Trump. I expect this group to be smaller than normal, especially by the last month of the campaign. A big chunk of voters are baked in and will not have their minds changes one way or the other on anything Trump does between now and November 2020. But undecideds are still worth a few points and the above (especially #1) lead them to dump Trump in favor of the Democrat.
What Trump’s Loss Would Look Like
In an election where Trump loses by 9 to 9.5 nationally the conservative estimate is him losing all states that he is currently at or below 49% in. You could argue that states he is above water in could also go blue, but it feels like we should acknowledge the intransigent nature of GOP voters in here somewhere. Some polling variations would help the Democrat land Kansas and Utah, but I have a very hard time seeing those truly go blue.
The below map shows Trump losing all of the states that he is currently at or below 50% approval in (according to Civiqs average over the past month or so). Keep in mind that the factors above would erode his approval below the majority, which is why the Democrat picks up the close states.
States like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin return to the Democratic fold. Iowa and Ohio join them, along with those extra electors in Nebraska and Maine.
More surprising is the Democrats sweeping purpling states such as Georgia, Texas and Arizona. Georgia, Texas and North Carolina still make it harder to vote and play other suppression games, but the turnout is enough to swamp those efforts. Florida is of course there when you don’t need it. A 2020 map like the below would represent a fast forward to a more typical electoral map for the late 2020’s, at least as far as Georgia, North Carolina, Texas and Arizona are concerned. Massive turnout would tilt these states bluer than normal (more than one of these would likely go back red in 2024). Arizona would have an excellent shot at staying blue and follow Virginia’s path.
This would be a good night to be a Democrat. The best since 1964.
Repercussions for the above would be enormous. A presidential win with this margin would pull other Democrats over the finish line. In the Senate the Democrats would have excellent odds of picking up Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa and one of the two Georgia seats up. Even if Alabama was lost that would mean a Senate majority. The House would likely tilt further for team blue, picking up another 10 to 15 seats minimum. The state and local races would be even more of a bloodbath, especially with the RNC-Trump merger largely ignoring them.
The above would represent a realignment election, especially if the Democrats were even marginally more effective than they were from 2008 to 2010, which would increase their chances of retaining power. Most important would be the economy showing recovery (recall the above relies on at least a moderate slowdown). Other more aggressive actions (new Voting Rights Act, new states and/or reapportioning the House) could lock in Democratic control in at least one house of Congress for the foreseeable future. It would be a realignment as GOP policies would be perpetually stymied and peppered with periods of progressive legislation (the opposite of what we have had since 1980).