Here’s the big question.
Who told Donald Trump he should order a drone strike on Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani — and why?
The man doesn’t read anything. He hates to sit through briefings. He doesn’t listen to his own intelligence agencies. Not that long ago he was confusing Quds with Kurds. So how did he decide to take out Suleimani? What was the process?
• Would I be jumping to conclusions if I speculated this happened not as part any coherent strategy in the Middle East, but because Trump heard about an American contractor getting killed, ordered a big response, got caught by surprise by the reaction and the attack on the Embassy, and decided to double down by taking out a high-ranking Iranian?
• Did someone in his inner circle decide this was the time to advance their own agenda for Iran, and calculated that suggesting Suleimani’s assassination by drone would get the war with Iran the Neo-Cons have been lusting after for decades? Trump has been beating the drum about Iran all along — it wouldn’t take much.
• Did Trump or someone around him look at how more damaging information keeps coming out daily about Ukraine, and now his Russian financial backing through Deutsche Bank? Did Trump and/or his people decide that they needed something big to distract the press and the people away from those stories? Trump getting out of a scandal by creating a new scandal has been SOP all along; possible war with Iran is a measure of just how urgent Trump’s troubles have become.
• Did someone come up with the idea that Trump had to take out a “really bad guy” to rally his base around him, and pitched the idea that this was something he could do that Obama wouldn’t/couldn’t? Did he anticipate his base would be cheering that at last America has a president who doesn’t take any crap and is willing to kick butt? Is this a MAGA ploy? Is this Trump trying to out-Osama Obama with this strike?
• Did Trump think he could catch Democrats in a trap, by forcing them to choose between condemning him for killing Suleimani and provoking retaliation or celebrating taking out a terrorist and preparing to fight back?
• Did Trump think starting a war would save him from impeachment, and did he ask someone for a provocation to get one?
• Did Trump see/hear something on Fox or in a tweet?
• All of the above?
Meanwhile,
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Air strikes targeting Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces umbrella grouping of Iran-backed Shi’ite militias near camp Taji north of Baghdad have killed six people and critically wounded three, an Iraqi army source said late on Friday.
Two of the three vehicles making up a militia convoy were found burned, the source said, as well as six burned corpses. The strikes took place at 1:12 am local time, he said.
But it may not have been the U.S. who did it.
The American military did not carry out the reported attack, according to a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity.
There are some things we can assume with a high degree of probability:
• Trump and the rest of his administration have no clue about what will happen next.
• Everything Trump and the rest of his administration are saying about this is so much bull shit.
• They will ride this as long as it keeps working for them, and drop it if it doesn’t.
• They have no long-term strategy for the Middle East; they’re making it up as they go along.
• The Republican Party will continue to back Trump whatever he does.
• Outside of his inner circle, no one in Trump’s administration or the GOP knew this was coming.
• People will die, our standing in the world will continue to decline, Putin will smile.
• Trump will do something worse if at all possible.
• No way of knowing for sure — but it won’t be good.
Here are some guesses from the NY Times.
UPDATE: This post from Mark Sumner lifts some of the veil over how Trump got us here. It still doesn’t explain exactly how or why — but it does seem to show the reasons they are claiming are all bull shit.
UPDATE: This report from the NY Times states that killing Suleimani was on a list of options given to Trump to respond to the initial missile attack on a base that killed an American contractor. It was considered the most extreme choice, and the supposed purpose was to make the others seem more reasonable. Trump chose airstrikes, and then when the embassy was attacked, put out the order to have Suleimani killed. This particular bit is especially alarming:
They didn’t think he would take it. In the wars waged since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, Pentagon officials have often offered improbable options to presidents to make other possibilities appear more palatable.
emphasis added
It’s an admission that the Pentagon routinely attempts to manipulate the Commander in Chief. That explains a lot. It shows they still think he responds to reason. Oops.
Good thing nobody put a nuclear option on the menu...