I live in Trump Country. In 2016, Trump won 72% of the votes in my precinct in rural southwestern Pennsylvania. I know a lot of people who voted for him. A lot.
But right after the election, before there was time to assess the disaster that was about to unfold, I kept hearing voter remorse. Why?
One friend: “The polls said Hillary was going to win. I don’t like her, so I just wanted to send a message about how unhappy I was.”
One voter doesn’t count, you might say? Hardly.
I heard the same thing over and over.
•“I hated Hillary and I think it is SOOO important to vote, so I did. I had no idea he could win.”
•“He wasn’t supposed to win. I wanted the Democrats to know how mad I was.”
•“Bernie got screwed so I would never vote for her, so I didn’t vote.
•“This is the first election in my life where I did not vote.”
You get the drift.
So what’s it like here on the ground in 2020? My evidence is not a scientific poll, I use no survey methodology and I’m not even distantly related to Nate Silver. But if you want a sign, it’s in the signs.
In 2008, 2012 and 2016, my yard signs, which are placed significantly back from the road, were stolen within a few days of erecting them. My Biden signs have been up for three weeks. They haven’t moved. (Full disclosure: This year, I took a Sharpie and wrote: “If you steal this sign I will donate $250 to Joe Biden.” Could have made the difference.)
When I drive from the highway to the center of our small town, about three miles, there are five Trump signs and two Biden signs. In 2016, it was more like a ratio of twenty to none. And most important: that huge 4-foot Trump sign, placed prominently on the hill at the entrance to town, is not there. Gone. Nada.
And just today, as I drove home about 2 miles from my house, right there in the middle of a cow field, a man was putting up a 4-foot Biden/Harris sign. There was no one else on the road, so I stopped the car. I saw him look up, warily. I could see it in his face. Was I going to scream at him or try and run him down? I rolled down the window, applauded and gave him two thumbs up. He broke into a relieved smile and waved back.
And finally, when I dropped my ballot off at the County Courthouse, I struck up conversations with strangers who were also holding ballots, and they were all voting for Biden. All of them.
Can you imagine anyone in 2020 saying, “I hate Biden so much I am sending a message?” Can you imagine anyone saying , “I decided not to vote because I’m mad at the Democratic Party?” Can you imagine anyone saying, “Bernie didn’t get the nomination so I won’t vote?”
Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,000 votes out of almost 6 million. My non-scientific self says that there were a lot more than a few voters in the Send a Message Crew.
I hope that’s a smile I see on your face.