The oozing heap of orange detritus in the Oval Office is already trying to cast doubt on election returns, saying Tuesday: "It would be very, very proper and very nice if a winner were declared on November 3, instead of counting ballots for two weeks, which is totally inappropriate, and I don't believe that's by our laws." Counting all the ballots received by state deadlines is, in fact, the law. It always has been. There has never been a law saying that the winner has to be declared on Election Day. He reiterated his intent to fight on Wednesday in remarks in Nevada, saying: "We'll see what happens at the end of the day [on Election Day]. Hopefully it won't go longer than that. Hopefully the few states remaining that want to take a lot of time after November 3rd to count ballots, that won't be allowed by the various courts." That's what Amy Coney Barrett is on the Supreme Court for. That's why Sen. Mitch McConnell stacked all the district and circuit courts with Trump loyalists.
States have days and weeks in some cases to actually count and certify the results of elections in a process governed by the individual laws of those states. They always have had. Except in 2000 in Florida when the Supreme Court decided to step in. It's no coincidence that both Barrett and another Trump appointee, Brett Kavanaugh, were on the George W. Bush legal team that secured that coup. Trump is laying the groundwork for the hell he'll raise starting election night, and the rest of us have to be prepared to counteract that.
If Trump attempts to stop the vote-counting, we need to take to the streets. The Protect the Results coalition has been preparing for this by organizing hundreds of post-election events across the country. Click here to find, and RSVP for, the Count Every Vote rally near you.
To that end, in part, The New York Times has a useful tool rounding up the results reporting process for every state and the District of Columbia, with estimates of what share of the vote they will have counted by noon on Wednesday, Nov. 4. The results are disquieting from a Trump chaos perspective—just eight states expect to have at least 98% of the vote counted on Nov. 4, and most of them are the small-population states that are either predictably Democratic (like Delaware) or Republican (like Wyoming). "Twenty-two states and the District of Columbia allow postmarked ballots to arrive after Election Day, so the timing will depend on when voters return them."
Here's what the Times heard from some of the key states, where in many cases the answer is murky but the bottom line is clear: state deadlines for vote certification are sacrosanct.
Arizona: "Officials are not predicting the share of ballots that will be reported by Wednesday. A new law allows officials to count mail votes starting two weeks before the election, so the first votes, typically reported at 10 p.m. Eastern, are likely to be relatively stronger for Mr. Biden."
Florida: "All early voting and previously tabulated mail ballots, which are likely to be relatively stronger for Mr. Biden, should be reported by 8:30 p.m. Eastern. Officials did not make a projection for the timing of full unofficial results, but they were allowed to process early-arriving mail ballots starting weeks before the election."
Georgia: "Officials did not provide an estimate but said that because of the large volume of mail ballots expected, it could take a couple of days for all of them to be scanned and counted."
Michigan: "Officials have said that full unofficial results could take until Nov. 6. Processing of ballots does not begin until Election Day, or the day before the election in some jurisdictions. If there are a significant number of mail ballots outstanding at the end of election night, the reported totals could be relatively stronger for Mr. Trump."
North Carolina: "Early votes and processed mail ballots, which are likely to be relatively stronger for Mr. Biden, will be reported around 7:30 p.m. Election day results, which are likely to be relatively stronger for Mr. Trump, will be reported between 8:30 p.m. and 1 a.m. Officials estimate that upward of 98 percent of ballots cast will be reported on election night."
Ohio: "Ballots cast before Election Day will be reported by 8 p.m., and they are likely to be relatively stronger for Mr. Biden. They will be followed by those cast in-person or arriving on Election Day. After election night, no more results will be released until final certification, which must be completed by Nov. 28. No predictions were provided for the share of results reported by Wednesday."
Pennsylvania: "Secretary of the Commonwealth Kathy Boockvar has said that she expects “the overwhelming majority” of votes will be counted by Friday, Nov. 6. Officials cannot begin to process mail ballots until Election Day, and if there are a significant number of mail ballots outstanding at the end of the night, the reported totals could be relatively stronger for Mr. Trump."
Texas: "No estimate was provided for the share that will be reported by Wednesday. Because an excuse is required to vote by mail in Texas, officials do not think that processing those votes will result in delays, though increased turnout could."
Wisconsin: "Gov. Tony Evers has said he expects to know the results on election night, or by the day after at the latest. The elections director in Milwaukee County, which officials say has the potential to be the latest to report, said that results could take until between 3 a.m. and 6 a.m. Wednesday."
The Times will update that table, checking in with states in the coming days to fill in the blanks. In the meantime, everyone has to fight back against Trump's disinformation. That means Biden and Harris and all of their surrogates and all elected Democrats have to counteract it with the truth. That the states deadlines for vote certification must prevail, even if that means the election results aren’t clear.
For our part, we have to call out disinformation when we see it on social media. And help get out the vote, with as much of the vote in elections officials’ hands on Nov. 3 as possible. The best outcome would be Biden so far ahead in all these battleground states Wednesday morning that Trump would demand the counts continue. But be prepared for this nonsense, because it's coming.