New surveys out of the battleground states Florida, Michigan, Arizona and Iowa show the state of the race pointing to a electoral college blowout. In two states Trump won handily, Arizona and Iowa, he is now either tied (Iowa) or behind by a decent number (Arizona). In Michigan the numbers point to a blowout, and the same is true for Florida. The Michigan and Florida polls were conducted by TIPP, a pollster rated highly by 538 — A/B. In addition, EPIC-MRA, one of the best pollsters for Michigan races, shows Biden’s with a large lead against Trump in the state of Michigan as well.
The obvious caveat is that this is just a snapshot of today only, there are still 140 days to go before the election. GOTV is highly important to make these numbers become reality. But the numbers, both nationally and on the state level, look very encouraging for us right now.
1. FLORIDA POLL 11% margin. AG/TIPP. 538 rated A/B. Biden 51% — Trump 40%. 11% blowout. MICHGAN POLL. Biden 51% — Trump 38%. 13% blowout.
AG/TIPP Poll: Biden Beating Trump By Double Digits in Two Battleground States
A new poll shows presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden beating President Donald Trump by double digits in the key swing states of Florida and Michigan. At the same time, a plurality of voters in Florida approves of the job Trump is doing with the economy, a key metric for determining success at the ballot box.
The American Greatness/TIPP Battleground Poll sampled 907 adults in Michigan and 910 adults in Florida in the online surveys.
In Michigan, 51 percent of likely voters said they would vote for Joe Biden, while only 38 percent said they would vote for Trump.
The president fared only slightly better in Florida, where 40 percent of likely voters said they would for Trump, as opposed to 51 percent who said they’d vote for Biden.
Even more encouraging than the raw numbers here are the findings on favorability. Biden appears to have turned his relatively low favorability numbers around.
Biden however had higher favorability ratings than Trump in both polls, with 48 percent of respondents saying they had a favorable opinion of the former vice president in Michigan, while only 37 percent said they have a favorable opinion of Trump. In Florida, 40 percent of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of Trump, and 50 percent said they have a favorable opinion of Biden.
Specifically, as for Trump, in Florida his favorability rating was 40% favorable and 56% unfavorable. In Michigan he fared even worse. 58% of Michigan voters view Trump unfavorably, only 37% view him favorably.
Biden, in contrast, enjoys posititve and relatively high favorability marks in both states. In Florida he is viewed favorably by 50% of voters, 43% view him unfavorably. In Michigan Biden is viewed favorably by 48% of respondents and unfavorably by 43%.
As has been seen in other polls out of Florida, Trump has a problem with older voters in the state, a voting group that supported him overwhelmingly in 2016:
We see 51% of voters age 65 and over choosing Biden, only 42% pick Trump. In 2016 Trump won the 65+ vote in Florida by 22%. By 22%. Now he trails Biden by 9% in that very sizable age group in Florida. If this holds, that would be a 31% turnaround in that one, for Florida very important, age group alone.
Biden also obliterates Trump with young voters, 18 to 24 years of age, 66% to 21%.
Here are the crosstabs for the Florida poll:
Florida poll crosstabs
Here are the crosstabs for the Michigan poll:
Michigan poll crosstabs
It has to be pointed out that AM Greatness is a conservative organization which hired the highly regarded and highly rated polling firm TIPP to conduct these polls for them. They were trying to spin the results, but failed. An example is here:
While the results seem ominous for Trump, some of it can be explained by the phenomenon of “social desirability bias.” In 2016, it appeared that many Trump voters gave inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they would open themselves up to criticism.
Here the person having to give the mostly conservative audience the bad polling news is trying to claim that Trump voters don’t tell pollsters their true feelings out of fear that “they would open themselves up to criticism”, as if that was actually a thing when someone tells a polling firm who one prefers to vote for in the anonymity of one’s home.
2. MICHIGAN POLL. 16% margin. EPIC-MRA, rated B+ by 538. 55% to 39%.
From the Detroit Free Press
Second Michigan poll shows Trump even farther behind, with Biden leading by 16 points
The damage done to President Donald Trump's standing in Michigan following recent protests outside the White House and in cities across the U.S. may have been even greater than originally believed, a new poll released to the Free Press said Tuesday.
Two weeks ago, EPIC-MRA of Lansing, a polling firm that does work for the Free Press, released a survey showing former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, leading Trump 53%-41% in Michigan, a 12-point edge.
But a second poll, started on May 31, a day after the first poll began, and concluded a day later than the first poll, on June 4, showed Biden leading Trump 55%-39% in Michigan, a 16-point margin. As it did for the first poll, EPIC-MRA surveyed 600 randomly selected likely voters for the second one, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
In the state of Michigan things have gone from bad to worse for Trump. No wonder, he decided to pick a fight with the very popular governor, Gretchen Whitmer, and has generally put himself well on the other side of popular opinion in Michigan on anything.
The second poll also showed:
- The percentage of Michiganders surveyed who believe the country is headed in the wrong direction increased from 63% in the first survey to 70% in the second. The percentage who believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction fell from 30% to 22%.
- The percentage of those with a negative view of Trump as president rose from 56% to 61%, as the percentage of those with a positive view fell from 42% to 38%.
- While the same number, 51%, said they would vote to replace Trump in November, the percentage saying they would vote to reelect him fell, from 38% to 33%. The percentage of those saying they would consider voting for someone other than the president rose from 8% to 13%.
As in the aforementioned TIPP poll Trump’s favorability is cratering. Here only 38% view Trump favorably, with 61% viewing him unfavorably.
3. GEORGIA POLL. PPP, rated B by 538. Biden leads by 2%, 48% to 46%.
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In Georgia Trump is underwater by 3%, 44% favorable, 47% unfavorable. If things are close in Georgia (this poll shows Biden ahead by 2%, which is basically a tie), Trump is in big trouble elsewhere in the Battleground arena.
4. ARIZONA POLL. Civiq’s, rated B/C by 538. Biden leads 49% to Trump 45%.
Trump won Arizona by 3.5%. Now he trails the state by 4%. Biden is almost at the 50% threshold in this state.
Arizona poll crosstabs
While in this state both Trump and Biden have similarly sized favorability gaps, Biden’s lead is largely fueled by the fact that in Arizona he gets 7% of Republicans to vote for him while only 3% of Democrats intend to vote for Trump. And Independents go for Biden to the tune of 50%, a full 10% more than do the same for Trump (40%).
New Daily Kos/Civiqs poll finds Arizona Democrats on track for success in November
Today, Daily Kos announced key findings from a statewide survey of Arizonans commissioned through Civiqs. The poll of 1,368 registered voters was conducted online from June 13-15 and has Democrat Mark Kelly defeating GOP Sen. Martha McSally 51%-42% and Joe Biden besting Donald Trump 49%-45%.
“This Daily Kos/Civiqs poll is full of bad news for Arizona Republicans,” said Carolyn Fiddler, communications director for Daily Kos. “Most Grand Canyon State voters--55%, specifically--have an unfavorable opinion of Sen. McSally and are eager to replace her with Democrat Mark Kelly. This poll indicates that Democrats are poised for wins in the presidential and Senate elections in Arizona this fall.”
5. IOWA POLL. Selzer & Co. polling. A+ rated by 538. Trump 44%, Biden 43%.
Iowa poll crosstabs
Des Moines Register: Iowa Poll: Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by 1 point in tight contest for president
Four years after Republican Donald Trump decisively won Iowa and the presidency, the state appears to be a toss-up as he seeks re-election this November, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.
Trump carried Iowa by 9 percentage points in his 2016 contest against Democrat Hillary Clinton. But today, the Register’s Iowa Poll shows the president leading former Vice President Joe Biden by just 1 point — 44% to 43%.
The poll of 674 likely voters was conducted June 7-10 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
The significance here is that Iowa is a state Trump should already be well ahead in, this should not be a battleground state at all. Yet, it is, and it is in reach for Biden to win this state. That tells you the trouble Trump is in overall, the uphill battle he has, also reflected in the other states we are seeing polling numbers from.
In March Trump led Biden in this poll by 10%, now it is basically tied.
The president’s job approval rating has also fallen in that time. In March, his approval rating was above water for the first time in a Register poll, with 50% of Iowans saying they approved of the job he was doing as president. At the time, 46% of Iowans said the country was on the right track — another high-water mark for Trump’s presidency, and the highest that number had been recorded since May 2003.
But both measures have fallen substantially, the new poll shows.
Today, just 22% of Iowans say the nation is on the right track. Another 63% say the nation is on the wrong track, including a plurality of Republicans (45%). It’s rare for members of a political party to break with a sitting president of the same party, Selzer said.
Trump’s approval rating has fallen 5 percentage points from March to 45% today. Now, a majority of Iowans — 52% — disapprove of the job he’s doing.
The “right track” number is at 22% in Iowa. 63% state the nation is on the wrong track. That calls for change in leadership.
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Across the board great news from the state polling area. As always, don’t get complacent, GOTV is essential to make these numbers come to fruition. I think we’ll win Florida, Michigan, Arizona and Iowa. With dedication and that “crawl over glass to elect Biden and defeat Trump” quality. :-)
