Okay so bombshell
If the Election was today, any the trends continued, Trump would lose at near 1980 levels. My optimistic map has Biden winning 406 to Trump’s 132. While we are not yet at Reagan Revolution levels, we are certainly headed there.
A new CNN poll has Biden with a 14 point lead. That is the highest of any Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Quick note Carter lost his 25 lead over Ford, and won with only a 2.1 majority. Largely due to Carter very weak fall campaign, and Ford’s likability (Trump has never come within 20 points of reaching both 1976 candidates likability)
Look I know we are all still shell shocked by the 2016 election. These entries are my opinion, based on all the projections and polls available. I am not trying to spread Complacency and I think we still need to work like hell to make these numbers stick. In the past week me and my friends have been petitioning our families and asking them to support Biden. We have also been gathering petitions for down ballot campaigns.
Each election cycle I put together a weekly electoral college poll based on the numerous state wide polls and the various site consensus. I make these projections out of fun and also I suppose out of interest. Its a great way to handicap the race and I’ve usually had a pretty good idea about who will win the general election. The Clinton lose of WI is still pretty shocking to me.
So I figured since I was already making them, I’d share them. I wanna see what you guys think, what your predictions are, and what I maybe missing.
So the image above is today’s map from the fine people at Electoral-Vote.com. link below
Link
Currently it matches closer to me conservative map than my optimistic map. Which never happens, usually there map is about 30 points higher to optimistic map.
Currently my usually conservative map is similar with a slight difference, I still have Trump winning Texas and the 2 district of Maine. However Biden wins Ohio,Florida, and North Carolina. That makes Biden’s total at 351 which is what his own campaign is seeing at the moment and what is their battle plan. My optimistic map has Biden winning Texas as well which is currently tied and winning in Fl,Oh,AZ, AND NC. Trump is still winning Ga on my conservative map.
Now to those of us ( myself included) who are still nervous from 2016, it must be stated that no Democrat has had these numbers in June. Not one since 1976. Give you a glimpse of the recent polls. Tell me if you see a pattern here.
Now as I mentioned earlier we are not at either 1980 or 1992 levels, but at this time we are a bit over 2008 levels and miles away from 2012. In my optimistic map I give Biden TX,GA,FL,and NC by very slim margins. I don’t for the record think we have enough info to bring all of these over to Biden, but I can tell you this, he’s going to win some. Trump is not going to be able to hold on to all of them, his numbers are just not that strong, he has too many fronts to defend.
The Dems are not defending any of their 2016 states and only a few of their 2012 states (the usual suspects). They are opening up a larger battle plan, according to campaign reps this morning. Trump is holding on to Ia, Mo, and Utah by single digits and Montana by only a few points. All are going to be contested by the Dems. It also seems likely that the Neb 1st congressional district will turn blue this year.
Dems are still putting all of their efforts in the rust belt and Arizona. Yet they are starting to focus on Ga and Fl thanks to their slim leads there. Mich and Penn is starting to look out of reach to the President, and WI is still a bit closer towards Ohio than Minnesota if that it is a light blue. Minnesota is starting to darken weekly and also seems out of the President’s reach.
Ohio and NC are honestly the biggest question marks for me, I feel Ohio is pulling away from Trump following the protests and thats when he started losing the state in the polls, which makes me think it maybe a temporary setback.
Now I know we Democrats are not the party of absolutes, and we are naturally worried about polls and elections. Yeah its only June, yeah I remember 2016, yeah there is only one poll that matters. Here’s the thing, in this election, in this moment in time, none of that is true.
Hillary was never winning every poll and never at double digits, she was never at 280 when you removed the in the margins states. Yeah its only June and Biden has been winning for several months straight. Yeah only one poll matters, except thats not really true. Polls can actually convince undecided towards a winning candidate, and excitement about winning actually turns out more people. Polls are a moment in time and here’s the thing, each moment is being won by one person, who keeps doing better!
I have from the beginning said this was going to be either a repeat of 1976 or 2012. I now think we’re looking at another 2008.
Anyway let me know what you think in the comments, input is always welcome. I am never going to be rude to people with different views and I respect everyone’s various opinions.
Be sure to also vote in the poll.