Max Boot/WaPo:
The midterms are a referendum on democracy in America and Ukraine
If you support democracy in America and Ukraine, you need to vote for Democrats on Nov. 8. But if the current trends hold up, Republicans are likely to take over at least the House and quite possibly the Senate, too, along with many state offices. This is how democracies die, both at home and abroad.
Jennifer Rubin/WaPo:
Why White evangelicals won’t recoil against the worst MAGA pols
In short, White evangelicals have never had a robust political ethic based on rigorously developed principles but rather an ends-justify-the-means approach to politics that starts with support for outcomes that are perceived to serve their interests and then marshals theology as backfill.
NY Times:
Fears Over Fate of Democracy Leave Many Voters Frustrated and Resigned
As democracy frays around them, Republicans and Democrats see different culprits and different risks.
Allyse Barba, a 34-year-old in the insurance industry, watched excitedly upstairs at Thrunie’s Classic Cocktails as Mandela Barnes, the youthful Democrat running for the Senate, tore through his stump speech just 19 days before the election.
Then Ms. Barba reflected on the politics of her state: the divide between the blue dot of downtown La Crosse and the surrounding red reaches of western Wisconsin, where she said she could not have a civil conversation; the Republican favored to win the seat in her congressional district, who was at the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021; and a Legislature so gerrymandered that her Democratic Party does not stand a chance.
“It is disheartening to live in a state where nothing happens,” she said glumly. “Voting isn’t making a difference right now.”
Seventy-one percent of all voters believe that democracy is at risk, according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, but only 7 percent identified that as the most important problem facing the country. Americans face more immediate concerns: the worst inflation in 40 years, the loss of federal abortion rights after 50 years and a perception that crime is surging, if not in their communities then in cities nearby.
The state level gerrymandering and inattention to political niceties in places like WI and OH are undercovered.
STATNews:
Covid-19 is an inverse equity story, not a racial equity success story
Covid-19 laid bare inequities that reflected poorly on what is supposed to be one of the most advanced nations in the world. Narratives like Leonhardt’s allow Americans to feel better about the mistakes we collectively made; they assuage the consciences of those who made decisions that created and perpetuated those disparities in the first place. It’s no surprise, then, that White House Chief of Staff and Covid advisor Ron Klain retweeted it, posting “Progress on racial equity in battling COVID.”
But to understand what’s really going on requires paying attention to the many things omitted from the narrative. It is true that vaccinations have improved now, and that the racial gap in death rates have narrowed now, but to call that a “public health success story” is a failure to “acknowledge the full picture,” as [NYT columnist David] Leonhardt’s essay implores us to do.
That’s good news.
Quoctrung Bui/NY Times:
Frustrated With Polling? Pollsters Are, Too
But what’s really troubling pollsters going into this election is that it’s unclear how much more error these problems will add during this cycle. In fact, many think it’s unknowable.
To be fair to pollsters, many Americans demand more certainty and precision from political polls than they do from other disciplines of social science. Just a couple of percentage points can make all the difference in an election.
I talked to 10 of the country’s leading pollsters to discuss the midterm elections and what worries them the most about polling. Most understand the public’s frustrations. Some are experimenting with new approaches. Others are concerned that the problems are deeper than what their current toolkit can fix. Spend several hours talking to them, and there’s only one conclusion you can reach: the same cross-currents of mistrust, misinformation and polarization that divide our nation are also weakening our ability to see it for what it is. The stronger those forces grow, the worse our polling gets.
On its surface, that will undercount Republicans, but only if they vote. Early voting says they certainly will, though some small number might be discouraged by ‘my vote doesn’t count’.
Madeline Peltz/Twitter:
A week ago Donald Trump threatened American Jews to "get their act together" "before it is too late" on his social media website.
The right-wing media has turned up the volume on antisemitism considerably.
A non-exhaustive thread of examples: 🧵
And this morning from ABC…
Adidas terminates relationship with Ye 'immediately' amid antisemitic comments
Outrage continues to grow following the rapper's antisemitic comments.
Voting News
You can get Georgia early vote data from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and from Ryan Anderson. Look at Black % of the vote as an imperfect surrogate because GA doesn’t list by party. In any case, a lot of people are voting, and from counties for both sides. This is on track for a record breaking midterm. {While in person is as strong as 2020, a presidential year, the enormous mail 2020 in vote is not there this year.]
You will eventually get useful info on Nevada early voting from Jon Ralston, who says:
Still too early to tell anything. I'll tell you when it's not...
but unlike GA, the early vote did not start out strong.
Alaska is pro fish:
Their survey has Lisa Murkowski winning in the third round of Ranked Choice Voting (RCV), which allocates the bottom candidate’s votes to the rest of the remainers.
This is a voting reform method Alaskans are warming to, even though the GOP hates it. Among other things, it ruins running spoiler candidates as a strategy to draw off opposition votes. And between Alaska and Maine, they’ve lost seats Republicans literally feel entitled to win.
The Lower 48 can learn a bit from the Last Frontier.
In NC:
Absentee by mail in NC is not especially popular. Absentee one-stop (aka early in-person voting) is the most popular way to vote in NC. See link for numbers.