Combat continues as winter preparation begins. Advances continue as Russia continues a pattern of disorganization, but with more missile attacks.
Key Takeaways
- Western and Russian reports of fractures within the Kremlin are gaining traction within the Russian information space, undermining the appearance of stability of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin may have waited to announce that he had replaced Eastern Military District (EMD) Commander Aleksandr Chaiko until he needed to use Chaiko as a scapegoat for Russian military failures in Kharkiv Oblast and Lyman, Donetsk Oblast.
- Ukrainian forces likely continued counteroffensive operations along the Kreminna-Svatove road in western Luhansk Oblast.
- Russian forces continued to establish defensive positions in northern Kherson Oblast, and Ukrainian and Russian sources reported ongoing battles north and northwest of Kherson City.
- Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.
- Anecdotal reports of poor conditions for mobilized personnel in the Russian information space are continuing to fuel the accurate narrative of Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) incompetence.
- Russian officials offered basic concessions for mobilized men and their families on October 7 but continue to rely on local governments and other non-federal institutions to provide support, including food and training, to newly mobilized men.
- Russian occupation authorities in Donetsk Oblast are continuing to forcibly mobilize Ukrainian civilians, belying Russian claims that residents of newly-annexed territories will not be mobilized.
- Ukrainian officials in newly liberated Kharkiv Oblast continue to uncover Russian torture chambers and other human rights abuses.
- Russian occupation officials have likely failed to repair necessary civilian infrastructure in occupied and illegally-annexed parts of Ukraine in time for winter as temperatures drop.
understandingwar.org/...
Eastern Ukraine: (Oskil River-Kreminna Line)
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to counterattack from Kharkiv Oblast in the direction of Svatove on October 7. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian advances on settlements east and southeast of Kupyansk.[15] Russian forces continued to shell Kupyansk and settlements in its vicinity.[16]
Ukrainian forces likely continued counteroffensive operations along the Kreminna-Svatove road in western Luhansk Oblast on October 7. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attempt at crossing the Zherebets River in an unspecified area in the Lyman direction.[17] Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai reported that heavy fighting is ongoing in unnamed settlements in Luhansk Oblast and noted that Russian forces are realizing the vulnerability of their defensive positions in Svatove.[18] Haidai added that Russian forces are mining infrastructure in Svatove and are stealing medical equipment from the settlement while calling on residents to evacuate.[19] Haidai added that Russian officers abandoned mobilized servicemembers in Kreminna.[20] Russian milbloggers reported that Central Military District Commander Colonel-General Alexandr Lapin is overseeing the situation on the Kreminna-Svatove stretch, especially Russian preparation of defensive positions in the area.[21]Russian sources claimed that Russian volunteer units BARS-16 and BARS-13 and elements of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division are entrenching their positions and uploaded footage of a military convoy reportedly moving in the direction of Svatove.[22] Russian and Ukrainian sources claimed that 1,000 Wagner soldiers redeployed to Lysychansk to prevent Ukrainian breakthroughs in the area following the fall of Lyman.[23]
Russian forces continued to launch unsuccessful assaults north of Kharkiv City on October 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault on Krasne, approximately 30km northeast of Kharkiv City.[24]
understandingwar.org/...
Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued conducting ground attacks throughout Donetsk Oblast on October 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults on Bakhmut, to the northeast near Vyimka, Bakhmutske, and Krasna Hora and to the south near Andriivka and Mayorsk.[40] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults around Avdiivka near Kamianka and Vesele to the north, Pervomaiske to the west, and Nevelske to the southwest.[41] The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults in western Donetsk Oblast near Pobieda and Novomykhaililvka.[42] The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) claimed that Russian and allied forces seized Otradivka, Vesela Dolyna, and Zaitseve, all south of Bakhmut, and geolocated footage showed that Russian forces entered Zaitseve on October 7.[43] A Russian source claimed that Russian forces are attempting to advance on Soledar and Bakhmutske.[44]A Russian source claimed that Russian forces made marginal advances toward Pervomaiske.[45] Russian sources claimed that the Russian 42nd Guards Motorized Rifle Division (MRD), which is subordinate to the 58th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District, stormed Ukrainian positions in Mariinka, and that unspecified Russian forces are advancing towards Novomykhailivka and Pobieda, south of Marinka in western Donetsk Oblast.[46] The 42nd MRD is based in Chechnya.
understandingwar.org/...
Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)
Russian forces continued to establish defensive positions in northern Kherson Oblast on October 7. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces continued to shell settlements in northern Kherson Oblast in an effort to prevent Ukrainian advances in the southern direction and fired S-300 air-defense missiles at ground targets in liberated settlements.[25] Kherson Oblast Military Administration Advisor Serhiy Khlan reported that Russian forces have urgently redeployed troops from Nova Kakhovka to Beryslav and emphasized that Russian forces still have the ability to cross the Dnipro River.[26] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance into Russian positions in Pyatokhatki, Sadok, Ishchenka, and Bezimenne.[27] Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces are forming defensive lines along the Sukhyi Stavok-Borozenske-Sukhanove-Mylove line, running from the Inhulets River to Dnipro River.[28] Some Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are still operating in Sukhy Stavok, however.[29]
Ukrainian and Russian sources reported ongoing battles north and northwest of Kherson City on October 7. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the direction of Zeleny Hai-Ternovi Pody (approximately 30km northwest of Kherson City) three times.[30] The Russian MoD and milbloggers, in turn, claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked Russian positions in Ternovi Pody.[31] Russian sources also claimed that Russian forces are consistently firing at Ukrainian forces in Pravdyne and Soldatske, and along the E58 (M14) highway.[32] Russian forces are also fortifying positions northwest of Kherson City by having the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 127th Regiment dig trenches in Kyselivka.[33] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked Maksymivka, about 33km due north of Kherson City.[34] Mykolaiv Oblast Administration Head Vitaliy Kim also stated that Russian command may have left Snihurivka (approximately 60km east of Mykolaiv City) but noted that he cannot confirm this information at this time.[35]
Ukrainian forces continued their interdiction campaign in Kherson Oblast to support their southern counteroffensive. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck an area of Russian force concentration in Borozenske (approximately 45km northeast of Nova Kakhovka), killing 10 servicemen and wounding 20.[36] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces struck three Russian ammunition depots in northern Kherson and southeastern Mykolaiv Oblasts and shot down a Russian Ka-52 helicopter.[37] Social media users reported that Ukrainian forces also struck Russian positions in Chornobaivka (northwest of Kherson City) and noted a gas pipe explosion in Kalanchak in southern Kherson Oblast.[38] Social media footage also showed the aftermath of a reported strike on a civilian mini-bus crossing the Inhulets River in Dariivka; Russian-appointed occupation officials blamed Ukrainian forces for the attack.[39]
understandingwar.org/...
The battles have been fast moving, and in the flight from Izium, produced a great deal of panic on the Russian side. After the capture of Izium, Swat said, his unit pursued Russian troops for 15 miles down the road in one day. A few more days and Ukrainian troops were at the gates of Lyman, 30 miles south of Izium; Swat’s group moved east to block any attempt by the Russian army to send reinforcements.
The day Lyman fell, his battalion was attacking another town further east. He asked for security reasons not to disclose the location. His units captured the town in a day, without losses, although nine soldiers were wounded. By the third day they had searched and secured the town and handed it over to another group so they could pull back and recharge.
[...]
The platoon commander named Boris said their units had carried out several assaults on Izium from the southwest in the weeks before the counterattack, luring the Russians into reinforcing in that direction. When the full force of the counterattack came from the north, they were not expecting it, he said.
That does not mean there was not resistance.
The Russians were often set up in well dug-in machine gun nests, several Ukrainian commanders and soldiers said. And once Russian troops pull back, there can be heavy bombardment from Russian planes, artillery, and long-range missiles. A powerful missile strike demolished a former Russian command post in the town they seized recently, killing five of his men, he said.
“It was like a cold water shower,” Swat said. Referring to the five who died, he said: “For two days I was like, crazy. They were young guys.”
[...]
But commanders and soldiers seemed to agree that Ukrainian troops should keep pushing before the Russian side could regroup.
“We have only one month to do this right now, because right now they are in panic,” Swat said. And winter was closing in. “Now we need to get winter clothes, and we are going to have mud.”
www.nytimes.com/...
Here’s what we know:
Nearly 40 rockets hit the southern city of Nikopol, an official said, as Russian shelling has picked up in recent days. Grave sites with scores of bodies are found in Lyman.
GRAPHIC CONTENT WARNING:
I've also Geolocated the spot this pair of Russian Su-25's launched rockets from:
They overflew the village of Bruskynske, Kherson oblast, firing toward or across the Inhulets river.
Pink box is 47.162214, 33.196270:
@GeoConfirmed
The pair of Russian Su-25's did cross the Dnipro River at about 46.991155, 33.617039 on the way to make their attack run:
Video of the Russian Su-25's over Kherson region from this thread archived with details here:
Maps like this show why Russian Su-25's or any attack aircraft, for that matter, were firing on the area of the Kherson front at Davydiv Brid/Bruskynske...
...Ukrainian Army broke through. This tells me the Su-25 video is pretty recent.
Green line added for Su-25 path from vid.
This again is the area Russian Su-25s were targeting on Kherson last week and perhaps over the weekend:
More pieces to what is happening on the ground coming together.
Time again to
#Geolocate a Russian Su-25 random rocket run!
Russia MoD released this video showing multiple Su-25's over southern Ukraine.
Their departure point is the same at Dzhankoi, Crimea--see top of this thread.
Here is the video:
#Geolocation:
Kherson front just northwest of Kachkarivka, 47.125110, 33.723288.
Video and location information archived here:
Notable for context that the Su-25's fired toward area of Dudchany, as this map indicates based on the flight path (red line).
General direction of rockets indicated by red arrow,
Vitebsk L370 IR jamming pods appear installed:
Sentinel-2 spots of aircraft on 3 and 6 Oct. let us draw a full route for these Russian strike missions on Kherson front.
Both spots are near village of Markeiev, 46.5206660, 34.0485530.
Credit to @bradyafr for these spots and the map!! #OSINT
• • •
Back in May, artillery men from Ukraine’s 14th mechanised brigade were struggling to hold back Russia's relentless offensive in Donbas, trying to answer an enemy firing five or seven times more shells than they could...
➡️ But last month they took part in the offensive that liberated the Kharkiv region.
Now they have crossed the strategic Oskil river and are firing in support of an imminent battle to liberate neighbouring Luhansk oblast
telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202…
'Their confidence is a mark of how profoundly the tide of this war has changed,' writes @RolandOliphant.
'Now, it is the Russians struggling to respond'
“If I was giving them marks out of five, they’d get a four plus,” says Denis, a career artillery man with more than two decades of service, of the enemy artillerists.
🗣️ “They’re working on their own kit and we are getting to grips with different modern things”
Their guns are still self-propelled 122 mm SAU’s - Soviet built weapons which the men wryly declare were “born in 1970"
🇷🇺 The Russian artillery set the tone for the first half of the war, battering cities like Mariupol into submission and blasting a path through Donbas for Vladimir Putin’s tanks and infantry
But the balance of power on the battlefield has changed decisively.
When the Russians were routed in Kharkiv region at the beginning of last month, their generals withdrew the survivors behind the Oskil river to establish a new defensive line
telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202…
🇺🇦 Within days, the Ukrainians had forced a crossing and were pushing the Russians back again.
'The speed and violence of the battle for Oskil is still evident' ⤵️
At one crossing, a hamlet has been reduced to a group of craters.
The remains of one or several tanks - the wreckage is so mixed up it is impossible to count - is strewn amongst rubble and destroyed trees
telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202…
At the current rate of advance, soon even the soldiers may be gone - marching east to dig into a new wood.
“The Russians are not like the Russians we were fighting on February 24,” said David, a young soldier.
“They’re not as brave”
• • •