Armageddon
President Biden this week blurted out what many may have thought was an unintended gaffe. In an unguarded moment speaking with donors at a New York fundraiser, the president spoke of Vladimir Putin’s threat that nuclear weapons were an option that the beleaguered Russian was considering in his conflict with Ukraine. Biden is known for shooting from the lip but this may be a time when Biden was strategically messaging the future former guy in Moscow whose saber-rattling has now introduced the unthinkable. Let’s begin with the understanding that presidential statements are rarely unscripted— even when one considers Biden's propensity for oversharing. Scranton Joe is known to bluster, but in this situation, the words seemed not only prepared but targeted:
“He is not joking when he talks about the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons,” Biden told donors. “I don’t think there’s any such thing as an ability to easily use a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon.”
— The Guardian, October 7, 2022
The emerging Biden policy of publicly releasing active intelligence as a preemptory alert to our enemies and friends to demonstrate our intelligence capabilities has proven to be an effective tactic. Previously, Biden informed allies of Putin's intentions during the run-up to his invasion of Ukraine opening up a front in the information “war” with the Russians that unsettled Putin and revealed the reach of our intelligence capabilities. His choice of words this week suggests that his words may not have been unplanned.
General Mark Milley has acknowledged in the past the U.S. has used backchannel communications with our Russian counterparts as a safeguard against unintended consequences-— a clarifying option to avoid fateful misinterpretation of words or actions that may arise between the two military powers. In February, Milley met with Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian Armed Forces general staff, in Helsinki. According to Politico which reported on the Milley meeting, the Joint Chiefs Chair remarked at the time:
“When military leaders of great powers communicate, the world is a safer place.”
This comes after the revelations in Bob Woodward’s and Robert Costa’s Peril (2021) that during the end days of the Trump Administration Milley was in contact with the Russians assuring them that our government was indeed functioning and that the rule of law would prevail. Tense times require level heads and the Milley-Gerasimov meeting last February as the Ukrainian hostility was beginning suggests that back channels between the two have remained open.
intentional ‘slip’
Could it be that Biden’s message many believed was unplanned was actually intentional and carefully crafted notice to Vladimir Putin to let him know that we are privy to his plans— meanwhile alerting the already nervous Russian populace to what their leader was up to? Was Biden alerting his Russian counterpart that we have plans as well?
Biden’s warning and use of the word “Armageddon” was not a one-off, he repeated a version of his remark several times. In another variation the American President added:
“We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis… We’ve got a guy I know fairly well. He’s not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming.” (emphasis mine)
— The Washington Post, October 7, 2022
The specificity of Biden’s speculation and the addition of the judgment that the Russian military was in disarray, seems far more strategic and less improvisational. In the Kremlin, the message was surely received with mounting anger and frustration. Meanwhile, in the Russian streets and in the minds of Putin’s enablers, Biden’s words may have been a signal. Was Biden warning the Russians of the precariousness of their position given the nuclear and tactical advantages of NATO nations that surround Mother Russia and are championing Ukraine? Over the past month Putin has been schooled by his allies in China and India that in a confrontation with the West, given the poor performance of his generals and their military combined with the lack of support within Russia, Putin may have to go it alone.
This may explain the more strategic and less daunting attack unfurled this week by Putin and his OPEC pals. Cutting oil production and raising energy costs, while a discomforting thought (especially for Biden’s party in the mid-term elections) is hardly an Armageddon-like response given Biden’s stark rebuke that Russia is getting kicked out of Ukraine with the help of our munitions. The OPEC deal is hardly a precursor to a nuclear response by Russia that would exacerbate Russia’s isolation among nations and would surely broaden the retaliatory measures by NATO forces.
endgame
What is perhaps more insightful when viewing Biden’s words is the designation that the failing military is totally the responsibility of the suddenly faltering Russian leader. ”His military” is a form of political shade inviting others in the country to reconsider their support of a weakened leader who was fighting a war he was losing badly. Scranton Joe just might be making a play to the growing internal opposition in Moscow.
As the war in Ukraine turns against Putin his desperation grows. This is a time of imminent danger because despots generally are most lethal when they are closest to their end. Biden and his advisors are not reading tea leaves. They may be simply reading the available intelligence that reveals the thoughts of Russians who are tired of the war and even more, tiring of Putin’s reign:
“It seems to me his position is fragile,” one Russian official said of Putin in an interview on the day the mobilization was announced.
“In all these months we have heard that half the world is on our side. But neither Modi nor Xi are now supporting this,” the Russian official said...
In another conversation this week, the official said he had not heard about any direct challenges to Putin from within the inner circle. But “there are protests” by the heads of parliamentary committees about how the president and the military are conducting the war — “about why the army is not being supplied properly, about why the campaign is not going as it should,” ...
One senior European security official described growing “criticism of Putin — behind his back,” including from within the Kremlin ranks. “They think he’s stubborn,” the official said, and “obsessed with Ukraine” — an “obsession they do not necessarily share.”
---Washington Post, October 7, Putin confronted by insider over Ukraine war, U.S. intelligence finds, by Greg Miller, Shane Harris, Paul Sonne, and Catherine Belton
Maybe Joe isn’t so sleepy after all. Maybe, unlike his predecessor, he reads his intelligence briefs and is more careful and strategic with his threats. Biden has inherited a world afire, in part due to the incompetence and corruption of the former president. History will make the final judgment, but his presidency may be the most consequential since FDR. For those who deny his legitimacy and ridicule his mannerisms, never underestimate his resolve. While in Florida this week, a hot mic picked up Biden telling the mayor of Fort Meyers, “No one f***s with a Biden." Vladimir Putin may well take pause. He may be in line to share the fate of his MAGA buddy, tfg. He may soon become the Russian former guy— and Joe Biden may in part be the reason why.
