If you have been following me you know I have been working on an election theory based on landlines, cell phones, SMS, or text. Well a firm called Patinkin Research Strategies, for those of you who like to roll around naked in crosstabs, well, flip on the lava lamp:
353 pages of crosstabs. And of course, I went through them, because well, this is what I do. And so what it shows is an emphasis on stratifying SMS vs. Cell only. While most polling organizations are doing partial landline samples, this one is very up to date in how it reaches people. And what it found is stunning:
In the race for Governor Stacey Abrams does 21.3 percent better SMS to cell only, and for Senator, Reverend Raphael Warnock does 18.6 percent better.
You will have to zoom in on those to see them here but on the link you can find them on pages 25 and 46. Now, I know the standard caveats apply. Limited sample, just one firm, and so forth.
But say that I am partially right, that a young person who is not reachable by phone, is far more liberal, and enthusiastic this time than at any point in history, and pollsters, while they are including youth, are getting the more ideologically indifferent statistical samples of them.
Remember my post from the other day:
Overall, self-designated political conservatives appear to be the least advanced, and active, when it comes to mobile technology. Pew found that while liberal, conservative and independent voters are equally likely to own a cell phone, only 40% of conservative voters own a smartphone, significantly fewer than liberal (56%) or moderate (55%) voters. Also, only 68% of conservatives use text messaging, compared to 78% of moderates and 81% of liberals.
Here is the takeaway from this: For years we have heard about polls not having enough cellphone users, and this is true, but even cell phone youth skew more liberal if they text only. In other words, a properly weighted electorate would require a text only, or realistically, a behaviorial weighting to truly account for the liberalism of Gens Y and Z. This is key.
This is not wishcasting. This is data.
Non response is the biggest threat to polling. If you can’t reach a voter, like a Trump supporter, you can’t gauge the electorate.
But Trump is not on a ballot this time. Freedom and Democracy are. So who do you think pollsters are most likely missing this time?
Young people.
You can put a mental asterisk next to it, but unlike Republican firms, this group has crosstabs.
353 pages of them.
And perhaps the secret to what I believe will be the reason so many will have so much egg on their face.
If I am right many polls will be so far off as to be useless. We are talking in some cases, 10 points or more. Emerson, I anticipate very strongly I will be looking at you.
-ROC
Love,
-ROC