(mobile twitter won’t copy right for me so this is the link)
Plenty more videos like that out there if you want to look. Really, don’t you think shit like this spreads like a wildfire with people living there? Days or weeks? It started to hit the fan about 4 days ago. Like you can lie about the war to those people, kill children — if you don’t fuck with their money kind of thing.
I gotta think Russia is really trying to block these videos hitting the internet — I thought they could — but they sure aren’t able to block all of them clearly.
About the Ruble
Here is the six month chart — since July it has dropped about 25% and a good chunk of that is pretty recent.
www.google.com/… (about when they started losing the war)
I think those numbers are complete bullshit. The black market in Russia for USD is astronomical, at least 200 rubles for a dollar. That chart suggests 70 rubles for a dollar. Its pretty close to a break here. You need to understand that every .1 cent move = 7% move. It is at 1.41 cents right now. I see very little chart support. And that is just on the manipulated figures, god knows what it is in reality now.
Consider this — when the war started rubles fell to about .7 cents — that was when they were supposed to win. Well now they are losing. Call me crazy, but I sure don’t think that low will hold. And Russia has pretty much used up it’s bag of tricks to stabilize it I think.
Leading to the question of how much does Russia have to import? Russia imports an awful lot of stuff. I found this on it “(Of the top ten imports)
In 2017, around half of Russia’s total imports in terms of value were purchased from European countries. Russia main imports include machinery, electrical machinery, vehicles, pharmaceuticals, plastics, optical, articles of iron or steel, iron and steel, edible fruits & nuts and rubber... Russia top 10 imports accounted for approximately 60% of the overall value of its products bought from other countries. Refer the below table to check the trade figures of Russia major imports recorded in 2017.” www.exportgenius.in/…
Everything they have to buy is with a failing currency they have to convert to USD! I think in China on a limited basis they could convert to yuan — but make no mistake here — They are not going to take rubles.
It leads to this in the end I think
Destruction of a currency is directly tied to military defeat — feeds on each other. Like — loss on a battlefield can drop the value of a currency and the drop in the currency leads to shortages on a battlefield (or the population generally) — simplistic way of looking at it I admit. That is what Chase did to Memminger in the civil war for example. He pushed it so hard that by 1864 even in the south they used mostly Union greenbacks you know. Hence the 55,000% drop in CSA dollars at the extreme end of the spectrum.
You can understand why Russia is trying to keep this quiet but I think Ukraine will just sit back and watch it burn too. It does not matter what starts a bank run — it does matter what people think the value of the currency is in actuality. It is really only worth what you believe it is — there is no gold standard anymore. It is just faith and credit. So they could print more rubles I guess — it will be worth toilet paper too. They are NOT a reserve currency. And they have fucked with people too many times.
And I am dead sure Russian central banks are just shitting their pants. Really, what are their foreign currency reserves now (falling like a rock I am sure) — and maybe they could get taken in the end for reparations? What can they fucking do to stop it this time? Maybe there is some kind of voodoo out there I don’t see. I doubt it.
These are a couple good interviews on Russia’s predicament. They go into more depth than I did, obviously. Well done.
I like this one better — they are clearly both right to me, slightly different takes. Interesting that they both are originally Ukrainian to me.
I bet my ass that when the currency fails Putin will say it was his plan all along — wanna bet?
Boy Putin better stay away from windows right now. But you gotta think that the smarter Russians got their ass out of rubles if they could have a long time ago. So really, this pretty much is gonna hit the average people there the hardest.
If you want to go deeper into the ruble situation I would recommend CNBC or Bloomberg for the best market analysis— I think the consensus is they are surprised the currency has held at all for this long. Me too. It is ONLY down 25% — right??
This is basically a continuation of what I posted the other day. But now there are videos out there. I find them hysterically funny. I just posted a few examples - there is sure more. And they are from Russians for Christ sake. Yeah — I would say Russia is fucked here. Chickens are coming home to roost.