On Wednesday evening, Russian forces invaded Ukraine. This invasion was not limited to the so-called “breakaway republics,” or even to the Donbas region. It is a general invasion affecting all parts of the nation. Russia has engaged in hours of bombing and shelling of military bases, airports, and major cities. Russian advanced forces have attempted to capture all or part of Kyiv’s international airport to use in landing Russian forces. Both Russian and Belarusian tanks have rolled into Ukraine from multiple locations. An amphibious force has landed at the Black Sea port of Odesa, where heavy fighting is reported.
The invasion was preceded by a recorded speech from Russian President Vladimir Putin in which he declared the democratically elected government of Ukraine to be a “Nazi junta.” Putin also stated that Russia was going to engage in a “denazification” of Ukraine and has sent messages to Ukrainian soldiers encouraging them to join with Russia in “defeating Nazis as their parents and grandparents did” in World War II. The lie is made particularly vile by the fact that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is Jewish. Putin’s speech also included a number of warnings to any nation or group that attempted to interfere in Russia’s takeover of Ukraine.
Overnight, President Joe Biden issued a series of statements saying that U.S. intends to take strong action against Russia and that he will meet today with G7 leaders and NATO allies as they execute a response to what Biden called Russia’s “unprovoked and unjustified” attack. Biden also spoke directly with Zelenskyy and assured him that Russia would be facing “severe sanctions” and that Ukraine would continue to receive U.S. support.
NATO leaders have moved more forces and more military equipment to neighboring regions, and on Thursday morning ships from multiple NATO allies are moving across the Black Sea. Russian guided missile cruisers are arrayed across the Black Sea in a face-off with U.S., Italian, and French carrier groups, creating a situation in which “incidents” are all too likely. Ukraine is preparing a formal request that Turkey close the Black Sea straits to the passage of Russian ships, which would greatly isolate both the Russian military and commercial vessels.
Thursday, Feb 24, 2022 · 1:47:28 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Ukraine has greatly expanded its military in the last five years, with over 240,000 troops supposedly in the ranks, 200,000 reserves, and 1 million auxiliaries who have had at least some training. How they will fare against modern, mechanized forces is unknown, but it certainly looks like they’re going to try.
Thursday, Feb 24, 2022 · 2:17:14 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
It was noticeable that a series of videos released as Russian tanks rolled, all featured Putin wearing the same suit and tie that he had worn during his earlier televised meetings with the Duma and advisers. Now we know why.
Thursday, Feb 24, 2022 · 3:06:29 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
President Biden is now meeting with the leaders of the G7 nations to determine next steps against Russia. Reuters reports that a series of extremely harsh sanctions are expected — especially because this session is being watched closely by China, who may be taking the temperature of this response as a guideline for how the world would react to an assault on Taiwan.
Thursday, Feb 24, 2022 · 4:08:05 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Can’t verify this information. However, the Ilyushin Il-76 is a multi-purpose strategic aircraft that can carry both troops and heavy weapons. During the Afghanistan invasion, almost all Soviet forces reached the battle zone on Il-76s.
Thursday, Feb 24, 2022 · 4:28:09 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Journalist Christo Grovez suggests that the Russian forces reportedly on their way to Kyiv may have a specific goal: “...to capture and subordinate Kyiv and install a puppet government today. “
If this is the case, what are the odds that the person who Putin declares “acting president” is someone who also chatted with Rudy Giuliani?
Thursday, Feb 24, 2022 · 5:14:45 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
To be clear, fighting in the area around Chernobyl should not concern us in the sense of posing a potential world wide disaster. Considering the state of the reactor and the massive “elephant’s foot” of concrete over the damaged core, there’s little chance that any explosion could spread significant radiation outside the immediate area.
However, for that immediate area, this is a disaster. For those in and around the exclusion zone, this is disrupting storage of low and medium level waste, stirring up a lot of particles that would otherwise stay put, and generally setting back efforts at clean up by decades.
Meanwhile, Russia’s stock market has ceased to trade after stocks there dropped by over 40% in the first hours after the invasion. The ruble is trading at its lowest rate ever on international markets—though it’s more accurate to say that it’s not trading—and reporters on the ground in Moscow indicate that foreign currencies are no longer available at banks and ATMs.
In the U.S., and in most markets around the world, stock prices also dipped, but much more modestly—the S&P 500 was down around 2% prior to opening on Thursday. However, the immediate effect of the Russian invasion was a sharp rise in oil prices, which blew past $100 per barrel overnight.
French President Emmanuel Macron is just one of several European leaders to speak to the significance of this event—the greatest disruption of post-war peace in Europe and the end of an era of relative stability. In Ukraine, President Zelenskyy declared martial law throughout the nation, urging citizens to stay at home if possible and seek shelter elsewhere if they must. On Thursday morning, images recorded a massive stream of vehicles attempting to flee the capital city of Kyiv.
As of early morning, there had been only a few reports of heavy fighting between Russian forces and Ukrainian military. Ukrainian forces were said to be in pitched battle with Russian occupation troops near the city of Sumy, which is fewer than 20 miles from the Russian border in the county’s north east. There have been reports that Ukrainian forces captured an armored BMP-1 amphibious assault vehicle and crew near Volnokava in Donbas, but this is unconfirmed. Overnight figures reported that 40 Ukrainian soldiers have officially been killed, but unofficial sources have been reporting hundreds more. In some areas, Russian tanks have been seen speeding down highways, apparently unhindered. Where the front lines are as of Thursday—or even whether there is a definitive defensive perimeter—isn’t clear.
