This will be a very long and detailed diary. I will tell you that this is WELL outside my knowledge comfort zone, so any experts on these subjects are welcome to chime in and help me correct any errors or add knowledge.
I know that agriculture and food distribution are unsexy topics in the regular discourse of DailyKos, but I feel compelled to write this diary about one of the MAJOR ramifications of the current Ukrainian-Russian War that very few are talking about. This is sounding alarms amongst commodities traders and agriculture specialists and the food insecure nations of the world. The UN hasn’t sent out an alarm worldwide yet, but previous to the Russian invasion they have been sending out alarms about this in parts of the globe. This current crisis is about to get MUCH worse. And don’t think for a minute it won’t impact you as well. It will.
The world is at risk to enter a food crisis of which we have not seen since at least the Great Recession, and possibly a LOT longer. Why? It is summarized with this one tweet:
Keep reading below the fold to see the enormous implications and impacts that this war will have on an already fragile food supply. Oh, and it gets worse than even the tweet above.
Where Does My Food Come From?
Have you seriously ever asked yourself where your food is actually grown, how it gets from the farm to the table, and how much effort it takes to grow or raise your food? Many Americans (NOT all, there are plenty of Americans that are food insecure) take for granted that their food will always be there. Ever since the rise of the supermarket, the consolidation of agribusiness, and the globalization of the supply chain, many have not needed to ponder these issues. However, it is important to know that even before the impacts of global warming have been fully unleashed on the world, the global food supply chain has been collapsing. We have been shielded from the effects of this problem for the most part, but that is about to change.
With the war in Ukraine, it is obvious that the farmers in Ukraine will have to fight for the freedom of their nation instead of being the traditional ‘breadbasket of Europe’. Russian forces, once it is growing season, will likely attack the farm fields that remain much like they have been attacking civilian targets in the cities. This will turn that very important fertile region into basically unproductive land. That’s bad when you consider the tweet above the fold.
To make things worse, Russia is now a global pariah, which means that their wheat and corn are not going to be as available on the general market as before. Countries (see below) that traditionally buy Russian food supplies will be hesitant to do so because of possible sanctions. Putin will NOT sell to the Democratic Coalition, as they have frozen Russia out of their financial system. Putin will also look inward and restrict the supply to those loyal to his regime still. He likely wouldn’t be afraid of forcing a famine on his own people, but he cannot push hard or the people WILL stage an uprising. Hungry bellies make previous unthinkable actions possible.
Below are links to a handy bar graph showing who has bought the most wheat and maize from each country in the last five years.
Some of the main importers from both Russia and Ukraine are:
- Egypt, where a total of $3.02bn worth of wheat was imported in 2019, $1.44bn came from Russia, and $773.4m from Ukraine.
- Ethiopia, where a total of $458,42m worth of wheat was imported in 2019, $142.01m came from Ukraine and $64.77m from Russia.
- Yemen, where a total of $549.89m worth of wheat was imported in 2019, $145.81m came from Russia and $79.8m from Ukraine.
- Lebanon, where a total of $148.49m of wheat was imported in 2020, $119.1m came from Ukraine and $22.93m from Russia.
- Palestine, where a total of $10.98m worth of wheat was imported in 2020, $5.61m came from Israel (mostly via Ukraine and Russia) and $3.57m direct from Russia.
- Also, in 2019, Israel imported a total of $364.48m of wheat, of which $102.55m came from Ukraine and $90.43m from Russia.
The nations above are going to be in real trouble, especially nations such as Palestine, Ethiopia, Bangladesh, Lebanon, and Yemen. Turkey and Egypt will also need to find new suppliers for their grains, as you can see the large amount of global trade they take in from Ukraine and Russia. This will have huge ramifications for those countries, as well as for the global food system. But it still gets more alarming from here!
The Modern Agricultural Revolution
The world has only so much farm land, and that amount is shrinking constantly as cities expand to claim previously tilled fields. Less and less people have been needed to grow the food in the developed world due to a few factors:
- Global supply chain ensures that emergency supplies can be rushed to danger areas if crops fail (at a price).
- Consolidated monoculture and agribusiness has made vertical supply and demand chains more efficient.
- Increased mechanization has strongly boosted productivity. Tractors, combines, and other equipment is increasingly better.
- Increased ability to tap aquifers. This unfortunately is a short term solution that will bite us in the ass one day.
- Increased fertilizer use has allowed for greater yields (at the cost of dead zones at deltas) than previously possible.
I will discuss #1 later in this diary, because there have been huge disruptions to the global supply chain. But I bolded the 5th reason because there is a HUGE issue that few are aware of. Who makes most of the world’s fertilizer?
To make matters worse, Russia and Belarus, a staging ground for the invasion and close ally of Russia, are also major exporters of fertilizer, with Russia leading the world; prices, which were at historically high levels before the war, have spiked. Fertilizer scarcity jeopardizes global crop production at a time when some or all of the 13 percent of global corn and 12 percent of global wheat exports from Ukraine could be lost.
Again, Putin will be reluctant to sell to the Democratic Coalition because of the sanctions. Brazil will be especially vulnerable, because Brazil buys a LOT of Russian fertilizer as shown in the tweet below.
Nations will have to find their supplies elsewhere in the face of Russia not being able to export. That means fertilizer costs will dramatically increase which will put even agribusiness farmers (who often run on the margins) at risk of bankruptcy. Here’s who produces the most fertilizer in the world:
The global production of nitrogen fertilizer amounted to some 117.5 million metric tons in 2018.
...
Production volume of nitrogen fertilizer worldwide in 2018, by country (in thousand metric tons)
Characteristic |
Production in thousand metric tons |
China |
28,943 |
United States |
13,617 |
India |
13,337 |
Russia |
9,430 |
As you see, Russia is 4th overall, and also the world’s main exporter. This fertilizer is now going to be difficult to get on the market, and it is very difficult to ramp up production quickly. And prices were already spiking BEFORE the invasion (underlined emphasis mine):
Ben Riensche, who farms 16,000 acres in Iowa, would be ecstatic to get $80 per acre selling his corn. But it’ll cost him $240 an acre to feed the plants with nitrogen, triple what he’s used to paying. And that’s not counting what he’ll spend on two other important fertilizers, phosphate and potash, which he says have each doubled in price since he purchased supplies for his 2021 crops.
Pandemic-induced supply bottlenecks and the rising cost of natural gas, a key production input, are among the factors sending fertilizer prices soaring. Add disruptions stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and consumers will be paying more for almost every plate of food. “You think they squawk about having gas go from three to four dollars a gallon?” says Riensche. “Wait until the grocery bill is $1,000 a month.”
Modern agribusiness needs fertilizer to keep up the productivity of their monoculture fields to feed the world. Better understanding of fertilizer is what makes our current world population possible.
It’s hard to overstate the importance of fertilizer. The advent of synthetic ammonia fertilizers about a century ago is widely credited for helping food production keep pace with global population growth, freeing humankind from its Malthusian constraint. In that time, the planet’s population has gone from 1.7 billion to 7.7 billion, largely thanks to enormous growth in crop yields. Some experts have estimated that the global population might be half of what it is today without nitrogen fertilizer.
If the global trade in fertilizer is further disrupted, it will mean higher costs for farmers across the globe, and in turn more food inflation at a time when global food prices have already been hitting record highs. Prices for the widely used nitrogen fertilizer urea in New Orleans surged 29% from the previous week—a record for the 45-year Green Markets index—after Russia invaded Ukraine.
If the above doesn’t frighten you, there are still further problems surrounding the global supply chain that will make the problems above even WORSE.
Global Supply Chain Will Be a Problem
The global supply chain has already been greatly disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is part of what is fueling discontent in this country as people who are used to having everything they want the day after they buy it thanks to Amazon suddenly have to wait their turn. People here are so spoiled, that any little thing not instantly gratified becomes an issue. Welp, the supply chain issues are about to get a LOT worse.
The global supply chain is why we have strawberries (from the Southern Hemisphere) in winter. It is why we have things like quinoa (at the expense of the natives who farm it). It’s why we have produce from the Imperial Valley and elsewhere in winter. It’s why all of the manufacturing can happen in China and the consumption can happen in America.
Thankfully, Russia does not own a large shipping company, so there should be no issues with a reduction in the amount of ships. However, there are two issues that will greatly increase the cost of shipping goods from location to location.
The first one is that the cost of oil is going to skyrocket. No one is willing to buy Russian oil even at a steep discount right now. Refineries are refusing to refine it. Buyers are wary of running afoul of international sanctions.
Russian oil accounts for about 8%, or 1/12th of the total global supply. Even if the US isn’t dependent on Russia for its oil, there will still be HUGE consequences.
There are two potential scenarios to consider, according to analysts.
“The first is with the oil supply, and the short answer is it would not affect the US that much,” Adam Pankratz, a professor at the University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business, told Al Jazeera.
“If it really goes drastic the US has a strategic petroleum reserve,” he said.
However, according to Pankratz, there is also a broader economic effect to consider.
“If the US stopped importing Russian oil, that would mean that likely many other countries would also no longer be importing Russian oil, and that would make a very tight oil market already much tighter, and that would drive up the price of oil and that in turn can drive inflation, which in turn can affect the US economy,” Pankratz said.
The second reason is that already disrupted supply chains are becoming even further disrupted.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has rattled global supply chains that are still in disarray from the pandemic, adding to surging costs, prolonged deliveries and other challenges for companies trying to move goods around the world.
The clash in Ukraine, a large country at the nexus of Europe and Asia, has caused some flights to be canceled or rerouted, putting pressure on cargo capacity and raising concerns about further supply chain disruptions. It is putting at risk global supplies of products like platinum, aluminum, sunflower oil and steel, and shuttering factories in Europe, Ukraine and Russia. And it has sent energy prices soaring, further raising shipping costs.
The conflict is also setting off a scramble among global companies as they cut off trade with Russia to comply with the most far-reaching sanctions imposed on a major economic power since the end of the Cold War.
The world will eventually adjust to these supply chain issues on commodities, but that will take time. What will be much more difficult to handle will be the increased costs of shipping and the fact that the backlogs due to COVID have yet to resolve themselves.
Even Higher Prices are Coming
Remember that chart showing where Ukrainian and Russian wheat and corn go? Well, those are countries on that list that are going to have to find new sources to supply their people. That will come at a cost as many of those sources are already traded with other buyers. Egypt and Turkey in particular have the resources to seek wheat elsewhere, and that will drive up the price. Look at some of the tremendous spikes in food commodities since the start of the invasion:
A little explanation about commodities futures:
Commodities futures contracts are agreements to buy or sell a raw material at a specific date in the future at a particular price. The contract is for a set amount. It specifies when the seller will deliver the asset. It also sets the price. Some contracts allow a cash settlement instead of delivery.
The three main areas of commodities are food, energy, and metals. The most popular food futures are meat, wheat, and sugar. Most energy futures are oil and gasoline. Metals using futures include gold, silver, and copper.
Commodities futures effect the economy in this fashion:
Companies use futures contracts to lock in a guaranteed price for raw materials such as oil. Farmers use them to lock in a sales price for their livestock or grain. Futures contracts guarantee they can buy or sell the good at a fixed price. They plan to transfer possession of the goods under the contract. The agreement also allows them to know the revenue or costs involved. For them, the contracts reduce a significant amount of risk.
Hedge funds use futures contracts to gain more leverage in the commodities market. They have no intention of transferring any commodity. Instead, they plan to buy an offsetting contract at a price that will make them money. In a way, they are betting on the future price of that commodity. Price assessment and price forecasts for raw materials are how commodities futures affect the economy. Traders and analysts determine these values.
These futures trending sharply upward signify that investors and the world think that the price of food is going to rise dramatically. That means that your grocery bill is going to be substantially higher on top of having a higher energy bill, a higher price at the pump, and higher prices on goods due to increased shipping costs. You think inflation was bad before? Well, it is about to get worse.
I think in the near term there’s likely to be some spike in commodity prices, but then how does the rest of the globe react? Do they start looking for alternate sources, alternate types of food to meet the demand? I think the impact could be volatility.
And then when we think about one area of outlet for food for some of our commodities versus fuel, versus some of the other uses it’s going to, I think it creates a lot of volatility.
It might be some near-term gains, but probably, in the long term, we’ll see some wild swings to high and low commodity prices. And then just layer that in with some of the other things that we already have going on, with inflation, with input costs and things like that.
And for some parts of the world, the consequences of that will be dire.
Already Poor Situations Are Going to Get Even Worse — Feast or Famine
When you think of the word famine, you think of war torn, impoverished, or totalitarian nations. That is essentially correct in the late 20th and 21st century. However, places where food insecurity and famine are occurring or could possibly occur are sharply rising in recent times.
Food insecurity was already on the rise in the world before COVID-19 as shown by this decade old detailed report:
It is one of the most striking paradoxes of our time. Today, more people around the world go hungry than ever before in human history. At the same time, even more people are now classified as obese–part of what observers are calling an overweight 'epidemic' and health crisis.
At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the UN issued a warning that the impacts of the disease could trigger a famine that could kill as many as the disease itself.
They said millions of people in Yemen, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Honduras, Venezuela, Nigeria, Haiti, Central African Republic, Uganda, Zimbabwe and Sudan faced starvation and appealed to governments to respond to increasing levels of hunger, stressing that billions of pounds in investment was urgently needed.
In the letter, the organisations including the International Council of Voluntary Agencies and the World Food Programme (WFP) said: “Girls and boys, men and women, are being starved by conflict and violence; by inequality; by the impacts of climate change; by the loss of land, jobs of prospects; by a fight against Covid-19 that has left them even further behind.”
In the weeks leading up to the Russian-Ukrainian War, the UN issued several dire warnings about the situations in the following countries:
- Yemen: due to the continuing civil war which is a proxy war for UAE/Saudi Arabia and Iran. Note that Yemen takes in much of its grain and corn from Russia and Ukraine as shown above.
- Syria: due to the ongoing civil war and now likely withdrawal of Russian supplies to the puppet Assad government.
- Sahel Region: due to a combination of inflation and continued insurgencies in places like Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.
- Horn of Africa: continued conflict in the Tigray War, chronic instability in Somalia, and the worst drought in about 30-40 years are contributing.
- Tonga: the nation is still reeling from the volcanic eruption a month ago and now has a COVID crisis to handle as well.
- Sudan and South Sudan: food stocks are running low in both countries, and UN food convoys have been increasingly attacked.
- Afghanistan: famine may have been averted for now, but the financial crisis is almost at the point of no return. Relief efforts will likely be shifted away.
- Nigeria: the northeastern region of the country is going into the highest amount of food insecurity ever heading into the lean season due to ongoing conflicts.
- North Korea: they have been cut off from the world since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and even admitted recently that they are suffering an acute food crisis in a rare admission of problems by the regime.
- Other nations that could be at risk include Honduras, Haiti, The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Madagascar, Central African Republic, Bangladesh, Palestine, Lebanon, and Venezuela. And this is not an exhaustive list either.
An additional problem is the refugee and likely food crisis in Ukraine is sucking up all of the oxygen of the world and the UN and the World Food Program at the present time. The nations above risk that so much focus is on Ukraine that their problems get neglected. Race also plays a factor in the neglect.
This doesn’t even factor in the increasing role of climate change in food insecurity, with India in particular being recently singled out for harsh adverse effects. I’d love to write more about this and the impact it is having, but that information is large enough for a separate very long and detailed diary.
Regional Communities (such as CARICOM) are already discussing the impacts that this invasion and the supply chain issues will have on their ability to import food. In this week of Caribbean Matters, Denise Oliver Velez shares:
The issue of food security is of major importance. Caribbean journalist and environmental writer with a focus on food and agriculture Daphne Ewing-Chow wrote this for Forbes on the likely impact of the Ukraine invasion:
With an annual average of 19 per cent of all imports to the 15-member states of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), consisting of food and agricultural goods in the amount of more than $5 billion each year, which is typically covered by tourism-generated foreign reserves, Caribbean food security is deeply threatened by any major disruption that impacts the region.
And for those member states that import up to 60% and sometimes as much as 90% of their food supplies, there are massive implications surrounding any war on this scale in the context of Covid-19 stricken flailing economies and struggling tourism sectors. “As small island developing states that are still largely import dependent for our food, we remain extremely vulnerable to these external shocks,” says Floyd Green, Jamaican Minister of Government and former Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries.
And no group stands to suffer more from the fall out than the poor and marginalized who were already feeling the financial brunt of the pandemic.
Nations at risk are already counting on reduced aid, higher prices, and supply chain issues. If world events continue to spiral downward, we could be looking at one of the largest combined famines in world history.
What Can Be Done?
If you’ve made it this far, you are likely despondent and depressed about this dire situation. This is a grim diary with not much positive information for the world at large. Luckily, there are a few actions that you can take to help ease the possible shortages if at all possible. We need to create and save as much food as we can so that it can go to people who need it the most.
Suggest a Temporary Repeal of CRP to Congress
CRP is a program which sets aside farm land to remain fallow in order for the soil to replenish. Granted, this will not greatly increase the supply of produce for the world, but every little bit helps. Of course, this strategy also comes with risks such as environmental degradation and increased chance of Dust Bowl like conditions. Those are risks we may have to take to avert famine.
The next tweet shows a graphic of the limitations of relying on CRP farming.
Lobby to switch production away from corn and soybean ethanol
Both Groundnut and FIshOutOfWater have brought up that much of our corn and soybean production is for conversion into ethanol, which gets put into E10, E15, and E85 biofuels. We could allocate less of our arable land to this purpose and convert it to land to grow livestock feed corn or corn for human consumption. The same goes for soybeans.
Background:
One of the main controversies involving corn ethanol production is the necessity for arable cropland to grow the corn for ethanol, which is then not available to grow corn for human or animal consumption.[29] In the United States, 40% of the acreage designated for corn grain is used for corn ethanol production, of which 25% was converted to ethanol after accounting for co-products, leaving only 60% of the crop yield for human or animal consumption.[3]
Environmental impacts[edit] of Corn ethanol results in lower greenhouse gas emissions than gasoline and is fully biodegradable, unlike some fuel additives such as MTBE.[14] However, because energy to run many U.S. distilleries comes mainly from coal plants, there has been considerable debate on the sustainability of corn ethanol in replacing fossil fuels. Additional controversy relates to the large amount of arable land required for crops and its impact on grain supply and direct and indirect land use change effects. Other issues relate to pollution, water use for irrigation and processing, energy balance, and emission intensity for the full life cycle of ethanol production
Statistics on usage of corn production in the US:
Quick google search shows the following:
On average in the U.S., about 45 percent of corn is used for animal feed, 44 percent is turned into ethanol, and 10 percent is used as food. Within corn used for food, about one third is converted into high-fructose corn syrup.
All of this comes with political risk of course. There is a reason so much corn and soybeans go into ethanol use — because it is rather profitable for agribusiness farmers backed by the ethanol lobby to plant and sell it. The farmers in the Midwest will be highly resistant to such measures for that reason, and they will take it out on the remaining Democratic incumbents in the area.
Instead of Demonizing and Deporting Undocumented workers, Support them instead
The sad truth is that much of our homegrown food supply relies on undocumented workers to pick our crops and to work in the slaughterhouses — often under inhumane conditions. Push Congress to pass immigration reform as a matter of ensuring food security. Push to improve the conditions of undocumented workers that are ruthlessly exploited by their employers. Undocumented workers have been an asset to our country in spite of the xenophobia and racism displayed by the white supremacist GOP.
Reduce Food Consumption, especially Meat
Many people eat much larger portions than they honestly need. This combined with a sedentary lifestyle and lack of exercise leads to alarming obesity rates. The goal here is to ease demand for food (and thus increase the potential supply which lowers the price) and allow others to afford it. Try to go on a diet — it may help our food supply out! But be careful to choose items that don’t take advantage of farmers — quinoa comes to mind as a food that became a health craze that has greatly harmed its traditional farmers.
Meat isn’t the best for your health already, and it takes up to 45% of our corn and grain consumption to quickly grow animals at industrial farms out in the middle of nowhere. The conditions of those farms are often deplorable, with the animals sometimes not allowed to move (free-range). Also, antibiotic usage in livestock to promote growth is thought to be a main contributor to the rise of drug resistant superbugs that will make modern medicine MUCH more risky and ineffective. You don’t have to go vegetarian or vegan (that is your choice), but you can certainly cut out at least 3-4 meat portions a week!
Look Into Programs that aim to Reduce Food Waste
Here are some policies that can be adopted throughout the supply chain and as a consumer to reduce our food waste. Honestly, the amount of food that goes to waste in this country is shameful. Look into ways to buy produce that would otherwise go to waste, and also see what is available at your local farmer’s market to keep food locally grown and cut out the shipping costs.
Donate Food to a local Food bank or Funds to an organization fighting hunger
Food banks were stretched to the limit during the pandemic as more people had to rely on them to make ends meet. They are likely to be stretched once more if food prices dramatically rise. After being a customer of food banks when I taught in Arizona, I did donate what I didn’t absolutely need during the pandemic. Doing that now would greatly relieve the pressure on our food supply and help reduce food insecurity.
If you are really looking to make a difference, talk to your boss or HR about starting a company food drive. Many companies may even match your donation (tax write off)!
As a parent, talk to the PTO or the teacher of your child to start a school food drive. This can really alleviate child hunger, as up to 1 in 6 children here in the US don’t know where their next meal will come from (if not at school).
Here are links to some organizations to donate volunteerism or money to. I think these can be trusted, and they have different levels of outreach and focus. Many also support nutritional and educational programs.
Action Against Hunger
Feeding America
Second Harvest
Bread For the World Institute (note: faith based)
Food Bank for New York City
Freedom From Hunger
The Hunger Project
Heifer International
Meals on Wheels
No Kid Hungry
Food for the Hungry (note: faith based)
Of course, there is always the World Food Program that the UN runs, and there will likely be many Ukraine specific food and supply programs running as well. Just vet the Ukrainian ones that are popping up to avoid fraud and scams.
Plant your own Garden
CONCURRENT DIARY on recommended list: KISS Garden with excellent instructions!
If you have the time, funds, space, and energy, consider making your own garden or supporting a community garden. This concept was very popular during World War II when almost everyone had a Victory Garden where they could find space. I consider ourselves to be fighting World War III at the present moment, whether we like it or not. Here is a resource to explain how to start and maintain one.
If you have the funds and are trapped in an apartment, that is no excuse. Hydroponic gardening has come a LONG way recently, and it is what our family uses in the winter when produce is scarcer. Lettuce, dill, and basil have done particularly well for us, but I did not have success with grape tomatoes. Do note the increased power needs that you will incur by using them.
We use AeroGarden systems for our hydroponics. We have two three pod models and a six pod model that I bought as a Christmas present for the family at the start of the pandemic because I knew shit was going to hit the fan. It’s really hard to fail to grow these as the instructions are literally right on the device. Keep a diligent check on the water level and give plant food when the red light comes on. If you time the cycle right, your plants will even get natural sunlight during the day and LED light at night!
Nebraska mom writes:
Grow bags are a great way to bring your garden inside. You can get these other places but Amazon has a huge selection for any budget. You can get a 5 pack for $20. Growing root vegetables? Some have flaps so there's limited mess. Soil is separate.
Reduce your Fuel COnsumption
FishOutOfWater points out that reducing your fuel consumption (especially given high gas prices) allows for more fossil fuels to be directed for the transportation supply chain and less for unnecessary personal trips. Try to carpool if possible, try to take public transportation (sadly, it is weak in most areas). Used cars are outrageously expensive right now, so trade in that gas guzzler for a smaller and more fuel efficient vehicle.
If you have gas or propane heating, turn down the thermostat by a couple of degrees. Your body will get used to it (and you can always wear layers) and you will save money on what will be even higher energy prices. Going for more efficient appliances, weatherproofing your home with better insulation and sealing penetrations, and unplugging unused items also help.
Conclusion
I pray to the Lord that I am merely being alarmist about something that may not come to pass. With so much attention being paid to the actual war and the economic boycott of Russia, I fear that this scenario will come to pass and much of the world will be caught off guard and shocked. Rise in food prices is one of the chief causes of social unrest in nation after nation, and if the prediction above that groceries will approach $1,000 a month in the near future, there will be extreme social unrest even here. Since Democrats are in power, the backlash will fall on our party. The political fallout could make the 2010 wave election look like a ripple in comparison. Raise awareness now or we will rue the day much later!
Friday, Mar 4, 2022 · 8:06:03 PM +00:00
·
bilboteach
I hate relying on one source, so I will look into finding more sources. Here is where we could be heading if this war lasts a long time.
Also, some more background about what is grown in Ukraine and where.
It looks like winter wheat is favored and should be being harvested right now in Southern Ukraine (where Russia has taken over the most territory).
It looks like March-April is planting season for corn in Northern Ukraine. It is very unlikely that this crop will be planted if the war continues.
It looks like April-May is time for planting sunflowers, which may still be possible if the war concludes.
I got that information from this twitter thread:
Sunday, Mar 6, 2022 · 2:28:55 PM +00:00
·
bilboteach
On the good news front:
on this issue, just in from the UK Guardian liveblog
Ukraine’s state-run railway operator is ready to organise agricultural exports by rail as a matter of urgency, it said on Sunday, after closure of the country’s Black Sea ports because of the military invasion by Russia.
A major global agricultural producer and exporter, Ukraine has historically exported its grain, vegetable oils and other food products by ship.
“This situation causes problems not only for Ukraine. The share of Ukrainian grain on the world market is 11%, the share of sunflower oil is 55%,” Ukrainian Railways said on social media.
“To prevent the global food crisis and save Ukrainian exports, Ukrainian Railways is ready to organise agricultural products delivery by rail urgently.”
Ukrainian Railways said that it might deliver grain to borders with Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland, from where the grain can be delivered to ports and logistics hubs of European countries.