A week before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, I wrote a piece titled, “Putin has backed himself into a lose-lose corner. How much will the world have to pay as a result?”
Ukraine is ready to defend itself this time around. Not only are Ukraine’s armed forces better equipped and trained than in 2014, but Russia’s disastrous mishandling of the separatist region—now an economic basket case—has reportedly turned even Russian-speaking Ukrainians against Russia. It’s not as if Russia is interested in economically lifting any territory it holds, nor has it ever. Any ground Russia holds will face a low-grade partisan insurgency. The Ukrainian Army is specifically training to split itself into small resistance units in that eventuality.
Meanwhile, Russia would be cut off from the global financial system while economic sanctions from the west would further batter its fragile economy. Russia would likely respond with crippling cyberattacks against western targets (like the shutting down of the East Coast oil pipeline last year), but Russia itself wouldn’t be immune from such attacks. Indeed, Belarus anti-government hackers shut down their nation’s rail system to disrupt Russian troop movement last month. Russia wouldn’t be immune.
Putin’s other option is do nothing, withdraw, and then what? Look his people in the eye and say, “I tried but they didn’t bow to my demands”? Kremlinology isn’t my field, but Russian leaders who betray weakness historically don’t fare well. Meanwhile, a spooked yet energized NATO continues to upgrade Ukraine’s defenses while shoring up its eastern flank with new bases and permanent troop installations.
One of the mysteries of this war is the lack of Russian cyberattacks, not even against Ukraine (other than some early takedowns of Ukrainian government websites that amounted to nothing tangible). Other than that, this still holds up today. Even if Russia somehow manages to decisively defeat Ukraine’s regular army, something that’s no longer a given, Ukraine seems more motivated than ever to use every tool at its disposal to resist—from good ol’ fashioned street protests (Russian troops are loathe to open fire on their ethnic brethren), to guerrilla warfare. But even if Russia manages to somehow use its dwindling assets to win the conventional war, the next step isn’t much better for them.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has stated clearly that he won’t be calling up reservists for the war. He’s a liar, of course, but he’s also a liar paranoid about his people turning on him. There’s no way to message “the ‘limited military operation’ is going well, but hey, we need hundreds of thousands more bodies to throw at it!” All indications—both from the Pentagon, but also from private satellite observers, is that Russia has already committed its entire pre-invasion force to the battle. There’s no one else coming, which is why Russia is overly depending on a Chechen private army and recruiting Syrian mercenaries. Belarus has refused to send troops (despite its dictator promising them). The rest of its “allies” aren’t stepping up, nervously avoiding eye contact. Meanwhile, battlefield attrition is actually removing entire units from the battlefield. Russia may have equipment superiority, and a willingness to use artillery to level entire cities. But it will never have more troops than what Ukraine can bring to bear—an entire national resistance. The fact that Russia can't even get to the guerrilla phase of the war is just icing on the cake.
Some estimates pin the cost of the war at around $2 billion per day for Russia, all the while the ruble collapses and economic sanctions take a toll. The more Russians come home in coffins, the more POWs phone their moms, the more discontent Putin will face from his populace. Time is not on his side. But what other option does he have? If he pulls out now, he’ll be the laughing stock of the world, his mighty WORLD POWER army bested by a country Russia considered so inferior, that a big premise of the attack is “they should be our vassal state.” Ukraine is so emboldened, it easily swatted away Russia’s latest peace proposal (no NATO or EU, occupied Crimea and Donbas remain in de facto Russian hands), even as it constituted a major retreat from its original stance (complete capitulation). There is no “off ramp” possible that would allow Putin to save face. Capitulation likely means death (or a trip to The Hague to face war crimes trial). He can’t stop now. He can only keep going, sowing death and destruction for a prize that is beyond his grasp.
It’s been several weeks since I wrote that headline, and Putin is still backed into a corner. As to how much the world will have to pay? Ukraine’s price is unthinkable, and the economic consequences are just starting—for Russia, and for the rest of the world. And we can’t even guarantee that this won’t spread into a wider conflagration.
Wednesday, Mar 9, 2022 · 1:02:05 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
On Tuesday, IAEA officials stated that they had lost contact with monitoring equipment at Chernobyl. Now the situation there appears to have become worse.
At last reports, more than 200 Ukrainian staff were trapped at the site, working 13 days straight since Russia occupied Chernobyl on the first day of the invasion. UN and IAEA calls to allow the staff to leave the area and rest, while brining in additional staff, have met with no response from Russia.
Normally, over 2,000 people work at the Chernobyl site, traveling in and out, managing the decommissioned reactors and the related nuclear waste sites. It’s unclear how much radiation exposure staff forced to remain on site are getting or whether fighting in the area disturbed any of the nuclear waste.
Wednesday, Mar 9, 2022 · 1:09:03 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Crude oil prices have fallen over $5 on Wednesday morning. Oil futures prices are also sharply down through the end of the year.
In part, this shows how the U.S. and U.K. decisions to block sales of Russian oil had already been factored into the market prices. It also expresses a confidence by oil speculators that supply can be increased to match the loss represented by taking Russian oil out of the world market.
Wednesday, Mar 9, 2022 · 1:15:29 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Uzbekistan may be the most economically successful former Soviet Republic. Like other central Asian republics it has not come out in favor of Russia’s invasion, or offered up troops. Officially it is “neutral” in the conflict.
One thing Uzbekistan has not done, is to close it’s airspace to Russia, and while Aeroflot may have ended international flights, Uzbekistan Airlines is still flying in and out of two cities in Russia.
As it turns out, those flights have been so popular, that they’re now adding more flights. It would be interesting to do a headcount on the flights going into Russia, compared those those coming out.
Wednesday, Mar 9, 2022 · 1:21:17 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Ukrainian troops removed barriers and mines to open a humanitarian corridor out of Mariupol, as part of a negotiated agreement with Russia. But just as the first people were moving down that corridor, Russian artillery began shelling the escaping civilians. Then Russian forces began to push up the corridor, trying to use it as a means of invading the city. They managed to get closer to the city core than previous efforts before Ukrainian defenders halted that advance.
Now the city continues to be encircled, Russian forces are able to shell the city center, and civilians have no way out. Also, Russia did not allow agreed on supplies of food and medicine to enter the city.
What Russia is doing has been described as medieval siege tactics.
Wednesday, Mar 9, 2022 · 2:16:31 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Bloomberg appears to be finally admitting what’s been obvious since Russian forces began shelling civilian areas in Kharkiv and the Kyiv suburbs on the third day of the invasion.
Watching Russia’s military machine grind a gruesome path through Ukraine, it’s impossible not to feel you’ve seen this tragedy before. The artillery volleys slamming into apartment blocks, the firing on evacuation corridors, and even the disorganization and hubris of the attack are all familiar scenes from Chechnya, Georgia, or Syria. Whatever the location, the ending has been the same: cities reduced to rubble.
Wednesday, Mar 9, 2022 · 2:32:02 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Nevzlin has been on the outs with Putin for over a decade and has been protected by Israel from a series of what are, presumably, trumped up charges levied in an effort to get Nevzlin back in range of a suitably open top floor window. So this isn’t exactly a shocking move.