A member of a Territorial Defence unit guards a barricade on the outskirts of eastern Kyiv.
A week before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, I wrote a piece titled, “Putin has backed himself into a lose-lose corner. How much will the world have to pay as a result?”
Ukraine is ready to defend itself this time around. Not only are Ukraine’s armed forces better equipped and trained than in 2014, but Russia’s disastrous mishandling of the separatist region—now an economic basket case—has reportedly turned even Russian-speaking Ukrainians against Russia. It’s not as if Russia is interested in economically lifting any territory it holds, nor has it ever. Any ground Russia holds will face a low-grade partisan insurgency. The Ukrainian Army is specifically training to split itself into small resistance units in that eventuality.
Meanwhile, Russia would be cut off from the global financial system while economic sanctions from the west would further batter its fragile economy. Russia would likely respond with crippling cyberattacks against western targets (like the shutting down of the East Coast oil pipeline last year), but Russia itself wouldn’t be immune from such attacks. Indeed, Belarus anti-government hackers shut down their nation’s rail system to disrupt Russian troop movement last month. Russia wouldn’t be immune.
Putin’s other option is do nothing, withdraw, and then what? Look his people in the eye and say, “I tried but they didn’t bow to my demands”? Kremlinology isn’t my field, but Russian leaders who betray weakness historically don’t fare well. Meanwhile, a spooked yet energized NATO continues to upgrade Ukraine’s defenses while shoring up its eastern flank with new bases and permanent troop installations.
One of the mysteries of this war is the lack of Russian cyberattacks, not even against Ukraine (other than some early takedowns of Ukrainian government websites that amounted to nothing tangible). Other than that, this still holds up today. Even if Russia somehow manages to decisively defeat Ukraine’s regular army, something that’s no longer a given, Ukraine seems more motivated than ever to use every tool at its disposal to resist—from good ol’ fashioned street protests (Russian troops are loathe to open fire on their ethnic brethren), to guerrilla warfare. But even if Russia manages to somehow use its dwindling assets to win the conventional war, the next step isn’t much better for them.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has stated clearly that he won’t be calling up reservists for the war. He’s a liar, of course, but he’s also a liar paranoid about his people turning on him. There’s no way to message “the ‘limited military operation’ is going well, but hey, we need hundreds of thousands more bodies to throw at it!” All indications—both from the Pentagon, but also from private satellite observers, is that Russia has already committed its entire pre-invasion force to the battle. There’s no one else coming, which is why Russia is overly depending on a Chechen private army and recruiting Syrian mercenaries. Belarus has refused to send troops (despite its dictator promising them). The rest of its “allies” aren’t stepping up, nervously avoiding eye contact. Meanwhile, battlefield attrition is actually removing entire units from the battlefield. Russia may have equipment superiority, and a willingness to use artillery to level entire cities. But it will never have more troops than what Ukraine can bring to bear—an entire national resistance. The fact that Russia can't even get to the guerrilla phase of the war is just icing on the cake.
Some estimates pin the cost of the war at around $2 billion per day for Russia, all the while the ruble collapses and economic sanctions take a toll. The more Russians come home in coffins, the more POWs phone their moms, the more discontent Putin will face from his populace. Time is not on his side. But what other option does he have? If he pulls out now, he’ll be the laughing stock of the world, his mighty WORLD POWER army bested by a country Russia considered so inferior, that a big premise of the attack is “they should be our vassal state.” Ukraine is so emboldened, it easily swatted away Russia’s latest peace proposal (no NATO or EU, occupied Crimea and Donbas remain in de facto Russian hands), even as it constituted a major retreat from its original stance (complete capitulation). There is no “off ramp” possible that would allow Putin to save face. Capitulation likely means death (or a trip to The Hague to face war crimes trial). He can’t stop now. He can only keep going, sowing death and destruction for a prize that is beyond his grasp.
It’s been several weeks since I wrote that headline, and Putin is still backed into a corner. As to how much the world will have to pay? Ukraine’s price is unthinkable, and the economic consequences are just starting—for Russia, and for the rest of the world. And we can’t even guarantee that this won’t spread into a wider conflagration.
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