We all want our rights. Some of us want to give everybody rights, while others want to be More Equal—to have Privilege that will be denied to others. We would like to be left alone, but they constantly overreach and force us to take action against them.
So it is today. Alito’s draft decision would overturn, eviscerate, trash, shred, set fire to Roe v Wade and Planned Parenthood v Casey. He explicitly says that he is not concerned with politics. But politics is definitely concerned with him, and the others who have gone in on this plot against the Constitution and the American people—women and girls in the first instance, but also all of the men and boys in their lives.
Within an hour of the draft being leaked, there were nighttime demonstrations going on outside the Supreme Court building. They went on all day yesterday, and are continuing. Others are coming together all around the country. This is going to get worse for Republicans right up to the November elections and long beyond.
Their Plan
This does not stop with Roe. Alito has challenged the entire notion of a Constitutional right to privacy, so all other decisions that rely on it are now up for grabs. Further, the Wrong-Wing loathes and despises the SCOTUS doctrine of Substantive Due Process arising from the 14th Amendment, and they intend to tear that down, too, together with all decisions dependent on it.
The natural second target would be Griswold v. Connecticut, the case that legalized contraception nationwide. Evangelicals tell themselves fairy tales and fan fiction about contraception being abortion and thus infanticide.
Among their fan fictions is the notion that Human Rights come only from God, so anything not in the Bible is necessarily a Human Wrong. That puts all pro-LGBTQ decisions on the chopping block, including Obergefell (marriage) and Lawrence (“sodomy”).
Some of them want to overturn Loving v Virginia, on intermarriage/ ”miscegenation”.
Look, I’m not the one making this up.
Our Plan
- The demonstrations began within an hour of news about the leak. They are going around the clock, and are expanding everywhere.
- We have bills being written in Congress to codify abortion rights nationwide, and get rid of the Hyde amendment while we are at it. That forbids spending any Federal government money on abortions. Majority Leader Schumer has vowed to bring one to the floor of the Senate and force all Senators to go on the record about it.
- This will be one of the top issues in the elections, first in the primary season that just saw its first results yesterday, and then in the general elections in November.
- Everybody you can think of is strategizing messaging and actions around these issues—abortion itself, Republican authoritarianism and patriarchy, the failures of imagination that let this get this far, expanding the Supreme Court, an ethics code for SCOTUS…
- Some want to impeach a few Injustices for lying to Congress and other crimes, but the Powers that Be won’t touch that with a three-meter pole—unless enough of us can raise enough of a stink to make them talk about it. Of course, impeachment only goes so far with a Senate Republican caucus that excuses bribery, corruption, and insurrection.
Remember,
Grokking Trumpists: We are Not Helpless before These Losers
We can’t let our people refuse to vote. I don’t care if you didn’t get your sparkle pony this year. I can promise you you’ll never have anything nice again if these paskudnyaks can take control once more.
Guttmacher Institute
The History of the Guttmacher Institute
The Center was originally housed within the corporate structure of the Planned Parenthood Federation of America (PPFA). Its program, however, was independently developed and overseen by a National Advisory Council separate from the PPFA Board of Directors. In 1977, the Center was renamed in memory of Dr. Alan Guttmacher, a long-time PPFA president and leader in the reproductive health movement. The Alan Guttmacher Institute was incorporated as an entirely independent nonprofit policy research institute with its own Board in 1977. It remained a special affiliate of PPFA until 2007, when Guttmacher’s special affiliation status was terminated; PPFA’s limited financial support to the Institute was phased out over the next several years.
26 States Are Certain or Likely to Ban Abortion Without Roe: Here’s Which Ones and Why
Thirteen of them have trigger laws on the books to ban abortion the moment SCOTUS announced that Roe v. Wade is no longer the law of the land.
Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, North and South Dakota, Wyoming, Idaho, and Utah
Others have laws that are not so complete or will take some time to come into operation, because they are not tied directly to this decision, or have had anti-abortion laws in the past but now want to pass new ones.
State Abortion Bans
State |
Population, M |
Notes |
Alabama |
4.9 |
Pre-Roe ban, Near-total ban, State constitution bars protection |
Arizona |
7.6 |
Pre-Roe ban
|
Arkansas |
3.0 |
Pre-Roe ban, Trigger ban, Near-total ban |
Florida |
22.2 |
In 2021, the state legislature attempted to ban abortion at 20 weeks of pregnancy and an effort to adopt a Texas-style six-week ban was publicized. In April 2022, a 15-week abortion ban was enacted that is scheduled to go into effect in July. |
Georgia |
10.9 |
Six-week ban |
Idaho |
1.9 |
Trigger ban, Six-week ban |
Indiana |
6.8 |
In the past decade, the legislature has enacted 55 abortion restrictions and bans, paving the way for a comprehensive ban. |
Iowa |
3.2 |
Six-week ban |
Kentucky |
4.5 |
Trigger ban, Six-week ban |
Louisiana |
4.6 |
Trigger ban, Near-total ban, Six-week ban, State constitution bars protection |
Michigan |
10.0 |
Pre-Roe ban |
Mississippi |
3.0 |
Pre-Roe ban, Trigger ban, Six-week ban |
Missouri |
6.2 |
Trigger ban, Eight-week ban |
Montana |
1.1 |
For the first time in nearly a decade, new abortion restrictions were enacted in 2021, including restrictions on medication abortion and abortion at 20 weeks of pregnancy. (These restrictions currently cannot be enforced due to a court order.) |
Nebraska |
2.0 |
Although not one of the most prolific states on enacting abortion restrictions, it was the first to adopt a 22-week ban (in 2010), and in 2020, enacted a ban on the standard method for abortion after 15 weeks. |
North Dakota |
0.8 |
Trigger ban, Six-week ban |
Ohio |
11.7 |
Six-week ban
|
Oklahoma |
4.0 |
Pre-Roe ban, Trigger ban (effective November 1, 2021), Near-total ban, Six-week ban |
South Carolina |
5.3 |
Six-week ban |
South Dakota |
0.9 |
Trigger ban |
Tennessee |
7.0 |
Trigger ban, Six-week ban, State constitution bars protection
|
Texas |
30.1 |
Pre-Roe ban, Trigger ban, Six-week ban |
Utah |
3.4 |
Trigger ban, Near-total ban
|
West Virginia |
1.8 |
Pre-Roe ban, State constitution bars protection
|
Wisconsin |
5.9 |
Pre-Roe ban |
Wyoming |
0.6 |
Trigger ban |
October 2021 Policy Analysis
That comes to 165.4 million inhabitants, nearly half of the country. But look at the biggest swing states holding elections for Governor this year.
- Georgia, Stacey Abrams vs. Brian Kemp
- Florida, Charlie Crist vs. Ron DeSantis
- Texas, Beto vs. Abbott
Close your eyes and imagine for a moment a string of victory parties for the good guys right after the November elections. If we can knock off those three states, that’s 60 million people that we can start to get out from under the corrupt MAGA Christianists. Now, open your eyes and get to work.
I miss 100% of the shots I don’t take.
Wayne Gretzky
Notes from Guttmacher
States Certain to Ban Abortion
If Roe were overturned or fundamentally weakened, 22 states have laws or constitutional amendments already in place that would make them certain to attempt to ban abortion as quickly as possible. Anti-abortion policymakers in several of these states have also indicated that they will introduce legislation modeled after the Texas six-week abortion ban.
By the time the Supreme Court hears oral arguments in the Mississippi case, there will be nine states in this group with an abortion ban still on the books from before Roe v. Wade, 13 states with a trigger ban tied to Roe being overturned, five states with a near-total abortion ban enacted after Roe, 11 states with a six-week ban that is not in effect and one state (Texas) with a six-week ban that is in effect, one state with an eight-week ban that is not in effect and four states whose constitutions specifically bar a right to abortion. Some states have multiple types of bans in place.
Pre-Roe ban: Law enacted before 1973 and never removed
“Trigger” ban: Law designed to be “triggered” and take effect automatically or by quick state action if Roe no longer applies
Near-total ban: Law enacted after Roe to prohibit abortion under all or nearly all circumstances (several of this type are currently blocked by court order)
Six-week ban: Law prohibiting abortion after six weeks of pregnancy (one in effect)
Eight-week ban: Law prohibiting abortion after eight weeks of pregnancy (none in effect)
State constitution bars protection: Constitution amended to prohibit any protection for abortion rights
- Alabama—Pre-Roe ban, Near-total ban, State constitution bars protection
- Arizona—Pre-Roe ban
- Arkansas—Pre-Roe ban, Trigger ban, Near-total ban
- Georgia—Six-week ban
- Idaho—Trigger ban, Six-week ban
- Iowa—Six-week ban
- Kentucky—Trigger ban, Six-week ban
- Louisiana—Trigger ban, Near-total ban, Six-week ban, State constitution bars protection
- Michigan—Pre-Roe ban
- Mississippi—Pre-Roe ban, Trigger ban, Six-week ban
- Missouri—Trigger ban, Eight-week ban
- North Dakota—Trigger ban, Six-week ban
- Ohio—Six-week ban
- Oklahoma—Pre-Roe ban, Trigger ban (effective November 1, 2021), Near-total ban, Six-week ban
- South Carolina—Six-week ban
- South Dakota—Trigger ban
- Tennessee—Trigger ban, Six-week ban, State constitution bars protection
- Texas—Pre-Roe ban, Trigger ban, Six-week ban
- Utah—Trigger ban, Near-total ban
- West Virginia—Pre-Roe ban, State constitution bars protection
- Wisconsin—Pre-Roe ban
- Wyoming—Trigger ban
States Likely to Ban Abortion
An additional four states have political composition, history and other indicators—such as recent actions to limit access to abortion—that show they are likely to ban abortion as soon as possible without federal protections in place.
- Florida—In 2021, the state legislature attempted to ban abortion at 20 weeks of pregnancy and an effort to adopt a Texas-style six-week ban was publicized. In April 2022, a 15-week abortion ban was enacted that is scheduled to go into effect in July.
- Indiana—In the past decade, the legislature has enacted 55 abortion restrictions and bans, paving the way for a comprehensive ban.
- Montana—For the first time in nearly a decade, new abortion restrictions were enacted in 2021, including restrictions on medication abortion and abortion at 20 weeks of pregnancy. (These restrictions currently cannot be enforced due to a court order.)
- Nebraska—Although not one of the most prolific states on enacting abortion restrictions, it was the first to adopt a 22-week ban (in 2010), and in 2020, enacted a ban on the standard method for abortion after 15 weeks.