I keep seeing a lot of people posting in comments that some online community on twitter or some subset of mainstream media are being down on Ukraine and are maybe even suggesting Ukraine is about to surrender. The Kos analysis then is brought up as a standout and is questioned. So I think it is worthwhile to write a simple note on this.
The first thing that has to be said is that in a war you cannot trust any analysis from any side. This is doubly true now, when every state actor has perfected the art of online spin and disinformation. Moreover, Russia in particular has invested much money over many many years into cultivating ties with western journalists and agents of influence. They are not alone. USA and China are certainly playing the same game. In more local and specific contexts you see the same from smaller players like Saudis. It only takes a few people in some online community to make a coherent message and the community can often be swayed. This applies to Kos as much as to twitter clusters. It only takes a few journalists at some outfit to not even lie but to superficially analyze stuff and you have a biased narrative in major media.
So then… who and what can you trust. The general answer is that you have to think for yourself. The answer specifically when it comes to the war in Ukraine is that you can trust large well-documented events like a depot being hit but not claims of how many people have been killed or captured (unless there is overwhelming evidence and rough agreement on both sides). Big changes in front lines are likewise easily evident because both sides will agree. For example when Russians first claimed Severodonetsk was taken it was clearly bogus since Ukrainians did not agree. But now both sides agree so it is safe to say that town has fallen. Similarly, Ukrainians have made dubious claims about advances near Kherson but there is no clear evidence this has happened.
When you look at it this way, you realize that it is important to filter out noise. A small village changing hands may be important tactically, perhaps even very important, but in terms of the state of war you want to wait for that tactical advantage to materialize before paying too much attention. Would it matter if Ukraine got Kiselyovka near Kherson? Sure. Should you pay attention? Not really. It only matters if it helps Ukraine liberate Kherson. Don’t get too caught up in the minutiae and you will be much better equipped to make overall judgment about the state of war. The big picture is a lot more reliable and understandable so focus on that.
Now then, what would indicate that Ukraine is in trouble? Not necessarily near surrender but actually losing and in need of a major turnaround. Here is the big picture:
en.wikipedia.org/…
Ukraine has four cities with a population of a million or more: Kiyv, Kharkiv, Odesa, Dnipro. If any of those cities falls to the Russians then that signals trouble. Until that happens, you can tune out of the little details and conclude that the war is in a slow attrition phase and Ukraine might be trading land for Russian attrition but it is inconsequential to the broader picture.
And what would indicate that Ukraine is winning? The biggest Ukrainian cities controlled by the Russians are Donetsk and Sevastopol (I am drawing the line at roughly 500,00 people because Russians do not control any big cities with a million or more — Donetsk comes closest). If any of these two cities changes hands then Ukraine is doing well. Until then, nothing much is happening. Yes, a lot of people are watching what happens in Kherson. But in the grand scheme of things it is a small town (less than 300K people). For context, imagine Mexico attacking USA and taking over El Paso. That tiny town has population of 600K. It is much bigger than Kherson. But even if such a preposterous imaginary scenario had happened you would not conclude that USA was about to lose the war, would you? Kherson’s capture by Ukraine would have major tactical benefits (including control over western bank of Dnipro river) but it wouldn’t bring the war near the end or signal a major change in fortune. When it happens, it will merely make it easier for Ukraine to first isolate Crimea and eventually to go after Sevastopol.
In summary, it is easy to get caught up in little details and make big conclusions from tiny unimportant events. Take a deep breath. Look at the big picture. Don’t trust anyone, trust the big picture everyone can agree on. Realize that nothing much is happening. Nobody is winning or losing. It’s a slog for now.