The disinformation campaigns continue as the bombardments become sharper and more accurate. Contradictory personnel reports mention new conscription and minimal casualties even as numerous targets like ammunition depots are hit. There is some indication of a Ukrainian insurgent resistance in Russian occupied areas with a local Russian-installed politician assassinated.
Putin's next move is anticipated to be a drive into Donetsk, which if captured would fulfill the Kremlin's primary objective: overrunning the entire Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, which has housed Russian-backed separatist factions since 2014.
But when and how that takes place is unclear. While Russia has continued intense airstrikes on various fronts in Ukraine, the US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Sunday that Russian ground troops were in the middle of an operational pause to "rest, refit, and reconstitute."
That could give Ukraine's army time to prepare to defend the parts of Donetsk it still holds; chiefly the industrial belt running south from the city of Sloviansk. And the threat of Ukrainian counter-offensives elsewhere in the country, including the key southern city of Kherson, remains.
The next phase of full-scale fighting, when it does break out, may not be the last. But it may determine the future of
Ukraine's heartland region -- and analysts say it will go some considerable way to determining the war's results.
Key Takeaways
- The Kremlin likely ordered Russian “federal subjects” (regions) to form volunteer battalions to deploy to Ukraine.
- Russian forces conducted failed ground assaults north of Slovyansk and around Bakhmut.
- Russian forces continued air and artillery strikes around Siversk and west of Donetsk City.
- Russian forces continued targeting Ukrainian rail lines on the Eastern Axis.
- Russian forces attempted limited and unsuccessful ground assaults north of Kharkiv City.
- Russian forces prioritized defensive operations on the Southern Axis as Ukrainian forces continued targeting ammunition depots.
- Russian occupation authorities are increasing financial incentives for civilians working in occupied Ukraine.
- Russian occupation authorities may be setting conditions to forcibly relocate Ukrainian children in occupied territories to Crimea.
fighters on both sides are steeling themselves for a third act of fighting that could tip the balance of the conflict.
"It's a very attritional struggle," said Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow for Airpower and Technology at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), describing the tone of the war after three months of fighting in Donbas.
"It's a struggle between two armies, both of whom have taken huge losses and are very close to exhaustion."
Putin's next move is anticipated to be a drive into Donetsk, which if captured would fulfill the Kremlin's primary objective: overrunning the entire Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, which has housed Russian-backed separatist factions since 2014.
But when and how that takes place is unclear. While Russia has continued intense airstrikes on various fronts in Ukraine, the US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Sunday that Russian ground troops were in the middle of an operational pause to "rest, refit, and reconstitute."
That could give Ukraine's army time to prepare to defend the parts of Donetsk it still holds; chiefly the industrial belt running south from the city of Sloviansk. And the threat of Ukrainian counter-offensives elsewhere in the country, including the key southern city of Kherson, remains.
The next phase of full-scale fighting, when it does break out, may not be the last. But it may determine the future of
Ukraine's heartland region -- and analysts say it will go some considerable way to determining the war's results.
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A deal to resume exporting Ukrainian grain has been announced with the establishment of a coordination and monitoring centre in Istanbul. Turkey’s defence minister Hulusi Akar said Ankara will ensure the safety of shipments in transit and the parties will jointly check grain cargoes in ports after officials from Ukraine, Russia, United Nations and Turkey met for talks in Istanbul on Wednesday. UN chief António Guterres described the talks as a “critical step forward” but said more work was needed before a deal is set to be signed next week.
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A traffic jam of more than 130 cargo ships loaded with Ukrainian grain is waiting in the Black Sea to pass into the Danube. The ships are waiting to access exit routes through the Sulina and Bystre estuary canals to reach a series of ports and terminals in Romania from where the grain can be transported on around the world
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Russian and proxy forces have reportedly entered the town of Siversk in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, according to Russian media reports. State news agency Tass quoted Vitaly Kiselyov, an official from the self-appointed Luhansk People’s Republic, as saying the town could fall within a couple of days, but it was not clear what that claim was based on.
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Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has ruled out ceding territory to Russia as part of any ceasefire deal. In a briefing, Kuleba said no peace talks were under way between Moscow and Kyiv “because of Russia’s position and its continued aggression against our country”.
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Russia has forcibly removed nearly 2 million people from Ukraine, including several hundred thousand children, since its invasion of the country, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said. Tens of thousands of Ukrainian are being held in filtration camps in the temporarily Russian-occupied territories, Zelenskiy said in a video address to the Asian Leadership Conference in Seoul on Wednesday.
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Russian forces will probably focus on taking several small Donbas towns during the coming week, including Siversk and Dolyna on the approaches to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, according to the UK Ministry of Defence. “The urban areas of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk likely remain the principal objectives for this phase of the operation,” the British intelligence report said.
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Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)
Russian forces continued to conduct limited and unsuccessful ground assaults northwest of Kharkiv City on July 13. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled another Russian attack on Dementiivka and noted that units of the Western and Eastern Military Districts continue to maintain defensive positions on the Kharkiv City axis.[30] The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Russian forces neutralized a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group in the area of Dementiivka, but ISW cannot independently verify if Russian forces recaptured territory in Dementiivka’s vicinity.[31] The Ukrainian General Staff also stated that Russian helicopters launched airstrikes on Petrivka and Verkhniy Saltiv, both northeast of Kharkiv City.[32] Russian forces continued to shell Kharkiv City and settlements northeast, northwest, and southeast of the city.[33]
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Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces continued to undertake defensive operations across the Southern Axis amidst Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammunition depots. The Kherson Oblast Administration reported that local residents observed Russian forces fortifying the Antoniv Bridge over the Dnipro River, just east of Kherson City, which may indicate Russian preparations for Ukrainian counteroffensives all the way to Kherson City.[34] Russian forces will likely attempt to defend the bridge to preserve their access to the western bank of the Dnipro River. Geolocated footage showed that Russian forces deployed Tochka-U tactical ballistic missile systems to Melitopol, reportedly in response to the increase of Ukrainian strikes on occupied territories.[35]
Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian ammunition depots along Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) on the T2207 highway on July 12 and July 13. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian aircraft struck a Russian ammunition depot in Novopetrivka (near the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border) and launched missile strikes on a Russian manpower concentration point in Chkalove (approximately 65km northeast of Kherson City), both settlements situated along the T2207.[36] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command also reported that Ukrainian forces again struck a Russian ammunition depot in Chornobaivka.[37]
Russian forces continued to shell Ukrainian positions along the Kherson-Mykolaiv and Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast borders and settlements on the Zaporizhia Oblast frontline.[38] Russian forces reportedly launched missile strikes onto an industrial facility in Zaporizhia City, a farm in Odesa Oblast, and social infrastructure in the Bereznhuvatskyi district in Mykolaiv Oblast.[39] Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Administration Head Dmytro Reznichenko also reported that Russian MLRS struck Nikopol, Chervonohryhorivka, and Myrove, all situated on the northern side of the Kakhovske Reservoir.[40]
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