The GOP made a Faustian bargain by lining up behind Trump. Since it’s generally been in their nature to be good political apparatchiks, they did the usual lock-stepping behind a guy who wore lifts in his shoes and inspired comparison to Weebles during his odd dances (as in “Weebles wobble but they don’t fall down”).
I’ve suspected the Dobbs decision is a game-changer, however. First, the GOP lost a huge wedge issue to use against the Dems. The nuts who see The Handmaid’s Tale as a how-to will still be around. But what about the independents, the suburbanites, the people who aren’t religious nuts? Most Americans supported Roe, and already, Dems have seen a money haul from angry people. SCOTUS has lost credibility and support within a week. In a move that (frankly) should have happened long ago, House Dems are painting the GOP as the party of batshit crazy. Which is not a stretch.
But all this comes from outside the party. Inside? Well, apparatchiks can only keep up a united front for so long before something gives and they turn on each other. It doesn’t help when they throw their support behind a guy like Trump.
Clearly, “important” people in the party are pretending they are sick of him. (Actually, he was just their useful idiot all along.) But Trump is going to be running for president again. That is a given. And those nominees lining up to be the New Trump? The old Trump is still around. Does anyone think he will be happy to see, say, DeSantis, Cruz, or Youngkin zeroing in on the nomination? DeSantis is a vicious, dangerous person, but unlike Trump, he’s not delusional or quite as egotistical. He is also not as charismatic. How many MAGA faithful are going to really forsake their Trumpy Bear for DeSantis? And how long before Trump unleashes deranged social media posts aimed at DeSantis?
It’s coming. You know it is. Trump had no problem lashing out at his own daughter. He won’t stop with his primary opponents.
And in the meantime, the infighting begins at lower levels, with Dan Crenshaw being dubbed “Eyepatch McCain” by hecklers and Cornyn being booed for supporting a gun bill.
I don’t need to rehash how Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger are being pilloried either.
Basically, the MAGAts and the GOP base are now one and the same. As this Politico piece notes, plenty of Republicans believe that the election was stolen.
“I think a lot of Americans have just lost faith in American institutions,” said Sean Walsh, a Republican strategist who worked in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush White Houses.
For many Republicans, he said, “I think the lack of faith in the electoral system does outlast Trump. Sadly, I think it does.”
And it’s replaced by anger at Republicans who are insufficiently loyal.
All these indicate that the apparatchiks are now, at long last, turning on each other.
I am not saying that Dems should stop campaigning or simply let the GOP do themselves in. But I am saying that it looks like the cracks are now appearing in the party—the party faithful are faithful to Trump now. They have based their political identities on him, not the party.
From the outside, it’s easy to paint them as the party of complete un-American nutbags. From the inside is where the real trouble for the GOP is coming.
At least that’s my take. Or something I hope. Or whatever. But I think the GOP’s alliance with Trump is now coming back to haunt them.