According to the report, next year, “8.1 million residents are expected to experience [at least one day] with temperatures above 125 degrees, the highest level of the National Weather Services’ heat index,” and by 2053, the report reads, 1,023 counties “are expected to exceed” 125-degree temperatures—a prediction that would affect 107.5 million residents.
These staggering prospects come just as the U.S. experienced its third warmest July on record, USA Today reports. Texas had its hottest-ever month in July, and Oregon sweated in its fourth-hottest July.
First Street’s modeling predicts that by 2053, Americans in 430 counties in 16 states will see the number of their hottest days more than triple.
“The largest increases occur in the southern half of the country, while the smallest increases in the amount of ‘Local Hot Days’ between this year and 2053 are spread over the northernmost region of the country,” the national risk assessment reads.
“For many places within the southernmost region, those hottest 7 days grow to about 30 days at the same temperature in 2053. This means that what would have hypothetically been the hottest week of the year in 2023 becomes the hottest month of the year in 2053,” according to the report.
Coastal regions have sea breeze to help cool things down, and although the West Coast region will be hotter than others, it will have something of a reprieve.
The top five cities most in danger of an increase in boiling hot days are St. Louis and Kansas City, Missouri; Memphis, Tennessee; Tulsa, Oklahoma; and Chicago, according to First Street's report.
One of the most concerning aspects of the warming trend is the lack of cooling temperatures at night.
Ashley Ward, a climate health scientist at Duke University, tells USA Today: “When overnight temperatures remain high, what we’re seeing is the body doesn’t have a chance to recover from any heat exposure during the day.”
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