“Russia’s continued failures to stop attacks against occupied Crimea may also spark public discontent within Russian society.”
Russian occupation officials in Crimea reported another drone attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in Sevastopol on August 20. Russian-appointed Governor of Sevastopol Mikhail Razvozhaev claimed that Russian forces were unable to shoot down a drone, resulting in the drone hitting the roof of the Black Sea Fleet headquarters.[1] Razvozhaev then retracted his initial statement and claimed that a fleet air defense post shot down the drone, which landed on the roof and caught fire.[2] Social media footage showed a loud explosion and a cloud of smoke around the headquarters, and the drone likely detonated rather than being shot down. Some OSINT accounts have identified the drone as a commercially-available “Skyeye 5000mm Pro UAV.”[3] Ukrainian officials did not claim responsibility for the attack as of the time of this publication. ISW has previously reported that Crimean occupation officials have obliquely accused Ukraine of orchestrating a drone attack on the headquarters on July 31 during Russia’s Navy Day.[4]
Russian occupation officials in Crimea are likely considering strengthening security on the peninsula following the attacks on Russian military infrastructure, and such measures may draw Russian security forces away from the front lines. Razvozhaev stated that all security services in Sevastopol are operating in “high alert” mode and controlling all entrances to the city.[5] Razvozhaev claimed that Sevastopol residents are asking the occupation administration to increase patrols in the city and establish new checkpoints, returning the peninsula to a security posture such as it had after Russia initially seized it in 2014. ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces have been using all types of security forces, including Rosgvardia, as combat forces and will likely need to divert some of these forces from the front lines and from occupation security duties elsewhere to defend occupied Crimea.[6] Russia’s continued failures to stop attacks against occupied Crimea may also spark public discontent within Russian society. One Russian milblogger criticized Russian forces for not using more electronic warfare (EW) equipment following the first drone attack on July 31.[7] Social media footage already shows many Russians waiting in traffic jams to leave Crimea and go to Russia, which may indicate growing public concern for the effectiveness of Russian security measures.[8]
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Key Takeaways
- Russian occupation officials in Crimea reported another drone attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in Sevastopol and are likely considering strengthening security on the peninsula.
- Russian forces conducted unsuccessful assaults across the Eastern Axis.
- Russian forces attempted limited, failed assaults north of Kharkiv City.
- Russian forces failed to advance after several assaults northwest of Kherson City and east of Mykolaiv City.
- Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian ammunition depots and positions in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.
- Russian and proxy forces are continuing mobilization efforts, including forced mobilization in occupied territories and advertising campaigns.
- Russian occupation authorities continued coercive measures to force civilian cooperation with the occupation administrations.
- Conditions in occupied territories continued to deteriorate, indicating ineffective governance.
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued to launch unsuccessful assaults southwest of Izyum on August 20. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance to Novo Dmytrivka, Virnopillya, and Kurulka, approximately 25 km southwest of Izyum.[9] Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian military equipment approximately 12 km northeast of Novo Dmytrivka on an unspecified date.[10] Russian forces also continued to shell Asiivka, Husarivka, Chepil, and Protopopivka northwest of Izyum and launched an airstrike on Zalyman on the Kharkiv City-Izyum line.[11]
Russian forces attempted several unsuccessful ground assaults on Siversk from the southeast on August 20. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched unsuccessful offensive operations from Spirne to Ivano-Daryivka and from Mykolaivka to Vyimka, all southeast of Siversk.[12] Russian forces also launched an airstrike on Ivano-Daryivka and shelled settlements around Siversk.[13] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces fired artillery near Pryshyb and Rozolivka, on the western bank of Siverskyi Donets River and just south of Sviatohirsk.[14] ISW previously reported that Russian milbloggers recessed Russian territorial control from Pryshyb on their maps.[15]
Russian forces continued to focus on advancing northeast and south of Bakhmut on August 20 but did not make territorial gains in the area. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked Bakhmut, Soledar, and Bakhmutske (northeast of Bakhmut).[16] Russian forces reportedly failed to advance to Zaytseve and Kodema, approximately 9 and 13 kilometers southeast of Bakhmut, respectively.[17] Russian forces also conducted unsuccessful attacks in the direction of Horlivka-Mayorsk, about 21 km due southwest of Bakhmut.[18] The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Militia claimed that the DNR “Kalmious” Brigade is supporting Russian forces advancing north of Horlivka with artillery fire but did not make any territorial claims.[19] The DNR Militia also claimed that the DNR’s 3rd Brigade seized Ukrainian positions around Zaytseve, but ISW cannot independently verify the DNR’s claims.[20] The UK Defense Ministry noted that Russian forces have approached the outskirts of Bakhmut but have not broken into Bakhmut’s defensive areas.[21]
Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks northwest and west of Donetsk City on August 20. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces launched unsuccessful assaults on Opytne, Pisky, and Pervomaiske, all northwest of Donetsk City.[22] Deputy Commander of the DNR’s 1st Army Corps Eduard Basurin claimed that Russian forces are fighting for Krasnohorivka and Tonenke, 19 km west and 18 km northwest of Donetsk City, respectively.[23] Geolocated footage also showed Ukrainian forces striking an advancing Russian unit in the southern part of Mariinka, about 22 km west of Donetsk City.[24] Geolocated footage also showed that Russian forces are attempting to advance to Mariinka from its northeastern outskirts.[25]
Russian forces continued fighting near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border on August 20. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces carried out failed assaults on Zolota Nyva, about 20 km east of the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border but were unsuccessful and withdrew.[26]
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Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)
Russian forces attempted limited ground assaults north of Kharkiv City on August 20, all of which failed. Official Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces attempted assaults northeast of Kharkiv City near Borshchova but failed and retreated.[27] The Derhachi City Council reported that Russian forces also conducted a failed assault on Pytomnyk, north of Kharkiv City.[28] Geolocated footage published on August 18 shows Russian forces operating around Dementiivka, indicating that Russian forces have only made marginal territorial gains toward Dementiivka north of Kharkiv City despite prolonged efforts to seize the settlement.[29] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted airstrikes near Ruski Tyshky north of Kharkiv City and Zolochiv northwest of Kharkiv City.[30] Ukrainian Kharkiv Oblast Administration Head Oleg Synegubov reported that Russian forces conducted missile strikes on Kharkiv City and throughout Kharkiv Oblast overnight on August 19-20, damaging critical infrastructure.[31] Russian forces continued shelling Kharkiv City and surrounding settlements.[32]
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Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces launched several assaults northwest of Kherson City and east of Mykolaiv City on August 20. Ukrainian military officials reported that a Russian platoon unsuccessfully attempted to advance to Tavriiske, about 38 km northwest of Kherson City.[33] Two Russian amphibious assault detachments also failed to advance to Partyzanske, approximately 44 km east of Mykolaiv City along the T1508 highway that goes to the Russian strongpoint in Snihurivka.[34] Geolocated footage also showed a small Ukrainian detachment raid an unspecified building in northern Snihurivka on an unspecified date, which could indicate that Russian positions shifted south within the settlement.[35] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces launched an Iskander missile at Voznesensk (about 81 km northwest of Mykolaiv City) hitting a residential building and continued striking Mykolaiv City with S-300 missiles.[36]
Russian occupation authorities again accused Ukraine of shelling the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), while Russian forces continued to shell settlements in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast across the Dnipro River. Russian-backed Zaporizhia Oblast Military-Civilian Administration Head Vladimir Rogov claimed that Ukrainian forces shelled in the vicinity of one of the administrative buildings at ZNPP using Western-provided military equipment on August 20.[37] ISW cannot independently verify if shelling occurred on August 20. Editor and correspondent for NPR Science Geoff Brumfiel concluded that available satellite imagery from August 19 will not suffice to make assessments of whether or not shelling occurred without footage from the ground.[38] Russian occupation authorities have control of the narrative given that they have access to the occupied ZNPP and have notably failed to present clear evidence to support their claims. Ukrainian local officials reported that Russian forces continued to fire Grad multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) rockets at Marhanets and tube artillery at Nikopol.[39] Ukrainian forces also shot down four Russian Kalibr cruise missiles over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[40]
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