Someone in New Jersey had to get shafted in redistricting, and this Majority Saver was the incumbent who drew the short straw. He faces off against the credible Tom Kean, Jr. in a seat that became redder after redistricting. In spite of a minor scandal handicapping him, I head to New Jersey’s 7th district to profile Rep. Tom Malinowski in a race that will be tough to hold.
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Tom Malinowski for New Jersey-7
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Candidate Background
Rep. Tom Malinowski has an interesting backstory, and I will share some tidbits from it. His whole reason for joining Congress was to give back to the country that took him in as a little boy.
- Malinowski was born in communist Poland. With the help of a corrupt official, he and his mother escaped from the country and fled to central New Jersey.
- He interned for Senator Bill Bradley, and then went to UC Berkeley for his undergrad. He was a Rhodes Scholar that attended Oxford University for his master’s degree where he studied philosophy.
- Malinowski is both a Clinton and Obama alumnus, always working in the State Department. He was on the National Security Council for President Clinton, and he was an Assistant Secretary of State for Obama. In between, he was a lobbyist for Human Rights Watch.
Signature Issues
Rep. Tom Malinowski is in the more moderate portion of the House Democratic caucus. He is part of the New Democratic Coalition, which makes him more pragmatic and solutions oriented than a pure progressive. This is also shown by him joining the Problem Solvers Caucus, which often attracts more moderate incumbents as well. This should be an asset in a tougher district than before.
Malinowski has a DW Nominate score of -0.271, which indicates a moderate voting record. He is more liberal than 57% of the entire body of the House. He is also more moderate than 84% of the Democratic Caucus in the House. His second dimension is also moderate in nature. He votes with Joe Biden nearly 100% of the time on the issues.
Tax Reform: Malinowski hails from New Jersey, which is a state with high local and state taxes. The 2017 TFG tax deform specifically targeted blue states by eliminating the SALT deduction, and one of his goals is to bring it back. He is also pushing to make sure the wealthy and corporations pay their fair share of taxes while easing the burden on the poor and middle class.
Health Care and Abortion: Malinowski led the charge to end surprise medical billing in Congress. He also pushed for Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices. He would be a staunch vote to protect the ACA from GQP vandalism. Finally, he is solidly pro-choice, and would vote to codify Roe into law, while Kean would pass a nationwide abortion ban.
Safer Communities: Malinowski wants to make sure that law enforcement has the tools necessary to carry out their jobs. He has been consistently sounding the alarm about the rise of domestic terrorism in the US from the far-right. He wants to hold social media companies accountable for amplifying messages of hate and terror and the algorithms that draw people to extremism.
Elections History
Recent Elections —
2020 President: Joe Biden (D) 51.0%, TFG (R-inc) 47.4%
2020 House: Tom Malinowski (D-inc) 50.6%, Tom Kean, Jr. (R) 49.4%
2022 Race Rating: Leans Republican (flip)
2022 PVI: R+1
This district has traditionally been a staunchly Republican district. This is spite of it being a swing seat that has been won by both parties in the presidential race in recent decades. Gore won the district in 2000, but Republicans shored it up to a district GW Bush won in 2004. Obama narrowly carried the district in 2008, but it was shored up again such that Romney won it in 2012. However, Clinton narrowly carried it in 2016, and Biden did much better in 2020.
The Republicans in the district tend to be “moderates” within the context of the Republican caucus. This includes Rep. Leonard Lance, who held the district between 2009 and 2019. He won a dicey first election while Obama won the district, but he wasn’t effectively challenged again until he lost in 2018. That’s when the backlash to TFG struck and many districts like this one revolted against him.
Rep. Tom Malinowski is the first to represent this area of New Jersey in a very long time. He barely hung on in 2020 in spite of Biden increasing the margins of the old district to 54-44. Tom Kean, Jr. is a respected name in New Jersey politics and he was able to keep the race very close. Kean is back for another round in 2022, and the district is much weaker than before. Malinowski isn’t favored to win.
Political Tour of the District
This district is still one that Biden won narrowly, but it was definitely shifted towards the GQP and it is much more likely to fall in 2022 than in 2020. The inclusion of Warren and parts of Sussex Counties are especially worrying, as they are blood red counties.
Here’s where this race will be won in the 7th district.
- Union County: Not all of this county is included in the district, but the portions of the county that are included are deep blue (except for the city of Clark). Malinowski will have to run up the score here to offset other portions of the district that aren’t as favorable. Failure to beat the Biden margins will lead to trouble, because Kean will do better in other parts of the district.
- Somerset County: This county isn’t fully included in the district, but it is the swing portion of the district. Malinowski will have his work cut out for him in this section, as Tom Kean, Jr. represents much of this area in the New Jersey Senate. Malinowski has to at least match the Biden margins here to have a chance of winning.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Hunterdon County and Morris County: These counties are wealthy, and they are rapidly trending our way (at least they voted for TFG by very narrow margins compared to the usual). They will likely vote for Tom Kean, Jr. by margins bigger than what Malinowski can accept, which is why he has to run up the score. Either that or he matches the Biden margins here to win.
- Warren County and Sussex County: These areas are blood red, and their inclusion in the district is ultimately what could doom Malinowski. Kean is likely to clean up in these counties, and by a bigger margin than TFG won by. Malinowski better pray that turnout here is less than elsewhere, or otherwise he will be in for a world of hurt when these counties report their votes.
Activism — Help How You Can!
Thankfully, Rep. Tom Malinowski is a fundraising dynamo. He raised a grand total of $1.26 MILLION for his re-election campaign in Quarter 2. He needs that kind of cash because his district spans two of the most expensive media markets in New York City and Philadelphia. Tom Kean, Jr. only managed to raise $697k, which is respectable. Expect dark money to go on the attack here.
Malinowski has even more money on hand, having a sum of $4.23 MILLION in which to spend. Tom Kean, Jr. still has quite a bit of cash, but nowhere near the amount Malinowski has. Kean has $1.31 MILLION cash on hand. I expect this to be one of the most expensive races in the nation, which is why Malinowski still needs your donation.
DONATE TO REP. TOM MALINOWSKI HERE
Just as beneficial as your donations will be volunteering for his campaign. He is what I call an orphan race, meaning there is no senate or governor race at the top of the ticket to help him out. He will need canvassers, text/phone bankers, people to update voting lists, etc. The place to go to volunteer is https://malinowskifornj.com/volunteer/. If you are in the area, please help him stay in Congress!
Malinowski has a huge Twitter following, with a total of 54.5k followers on his social media account. This is likely due to running two competitive races in a row. To help amplify his messaging, go ahead and follow him today!
He also has a Facebook account at malinowskifornj, an Instagram account at malinowskifornj, and also a YouTube account. Feel free to check them out at your own leisure!
It is a shame that Rep. Tom Malinowski got caught up in a minor stock scandal, because it won’t take too much to resolve the race in favor of Tom Kean, Jr. I still think Malinowski has a chance, or otherwise I wouldn’t be writing this diary. He better hope that the political environment improves between now and November, or otherwise he will possibly be ejected from Congress. Our majority is razor thin, so we cannot afford to lose this seat.
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Tom Malinowski for New Jersey-7
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