While we celebrate the victory I anticipated in NY 19 last night, we have to sit back and take a look at the relevant polling.
There was none.
These polls add up to an average of R 7.6. Pat Ryan has won by about four. That is a, gasp, 11.6 miss. Take a look at the DCCC poll. Even that poll had it by 3 for Molinaro, although it showed the race within reach. If we assess this as the most accurate poll, it still missed by 7 points. Point of fact, were we to win seats Trump won by less than five, we would gain 30 in the House. By 7?
Seven is a Blue Tsunami. Now, this was a Biden plus 1.5 district, and an R PVI of 2 overall according to Cook Political Report. But this would still suggest the environment is 6 points more favorable to Democrats than neutral.
I keep my receipts, for those that might think I am frontrunning here.
Of course, I can’t remember when I ever lost a battle by ignoring a pundit, but the reason I am writing this is more simple. I just read a story about “Despite the President’s low approval.”
Good gracious these people could miss spoiled milk in a saucer. This is not happening in only a Post-Dobbs vacuum. Here is what they are missing:
If the polls on average are underestimating Democratic performance in elections by eight points, sometimes even more, then guess what else they are underestimating?
The President’s approval rating. And right now, unbelievably, his best numbers pending today’s release are in Rasmussen, at 47. By election day, I believe he will be right at 50 not in daily releases, but the voting electorate overall.
Just thought I would throw that out there for anyone bending over backwards to try to rationalize these results away. Bottom line:
If we put in the work, and I mean hard hard work, we can gain a net of 30-40 seats in the House, win 54 seats in the Senate, and regain lost ground in battleground state legislatures.
Congrats to Pat Ryan!
-ROC
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-ROC