Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)
Ukrainian military officials stated that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is ongoing in Kherson Oblast but did confirm any Ukrainian advances due to operational security measures as of August 30.[20] Kherson Oblast Head Yaroslav Yanushevich stated that Ukrainian forces are continuing to prioritize the destruction of Russian ammunition depots, command posts, and force concentration areas alongside conducting ground maneuvers. Geolocated footage showed that Ukrainian forces have entered Arkhanhelske on the eastern bank of the Inhulets River and south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.[21] The geolocation can further corroborate the CNN report from August 29 which reported that Ukrainian forces liberated Arkhanhelske on the first day of Ukraine’s counteroffensive operation.[22] Other evidence supports CNN’s report. Ukrainian military officials previously stated that the Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) forcefully mobilized 109th Regiment fled an unspecified area in Kherson Oblast on August 29.[23] The DNR deployed the 109th Regiment to Arkhanhelske and other settlements along the Inhulets River and Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border in late July.[24] All this evidence further indicates that Ukrainian forces have advanced to Arkhanhelske[25]
Ukrainian forces intensified their strikes against Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs), ammunition depots, and strongholds through northern and central Kherson Oblast on August 30. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported on August 30 that Ukrainian forces continued to strike the Antonivsky road and railway bridges over the Dnipro River and the Darivka Bridge over the Inhulets River.[26] Russian and Ukrainian social media users uploaded footage that shows the aftermath of the Ukrainian strikes on the Antonivsky Road Bridge.[27] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command also reported that Ukrainian aviation struck Russian forces and concentration points in Kyselivka and Kortyrka, along the frontline in Kherson Oblast.[28] Russian Telegram channels published the video of a smoke plume in Nova Kakhovka reportedly around the area of the Novokahovka Electromechanic Plant (south of the Kakhovka Bridge), though ISW cannot verify the cause or the precise location of the explosion.[29] Russian-appointed officials claimed that Ukrainian HIMARS strikes damaged residential areas in Nova Kakhovka, but ISW cannot verify this claim.[30] Social media footage also showed a smoke plume accompanied by audible explosions in Tavriisk (east Nova Kakhovka), and some social media users reported the activation of Russian air-defense systems.[31] Ukrainian forces also likely struck Beryslav, approximately 10km northeast of Nova Kakhovka and Oleshky, on the left bank of the Dnipro River.[32] Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels also reported explosions in Kherson City and Chornobaivka throughout the day.[33]
Ukrainian partisans likely engaged in combat with Russian forces in Kherson City on August 30. Geolocated social media footage from the Tavriiskyi microdistrict in northern Kherson City featured audible small fire in the distance.[34] Russian war correspondent Mikhail Andronik claimed that Russian security forces found an enclave of “Ukrainian militants” armed with small arms and improvised explosive devices in the Tavriiskyi microdistrict and noted that there was a shootout in the area.[35] Russian sources additionally claimed that Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian reconnaissance group in Kherson City, though it is unlikely that an unsupported Ukrainian reconnaissance element maneuvered from Ukrainian-controlled territory over 10 kilometers through Russian-controlled territory all the way to Kherson City.[36]
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Key Takeaways
- Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations with ground assaults and strikes against Russian GLOCs across the Dnipro River. Ukrainian forces made gains on the ground and have begun striking pontoon ferries across the river.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely setting legal and social conditions for the coerced cultural assimilation of displaced Ukrainians in Russia to erase their Ukrainian cultural identity.
- Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack north of Kharkiv City.
- Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks southwest of Izyum, south of Bakhmut, and near the western outskirts of Donetsk City.
- Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack in northern Kherson Oblast.
- An anonymous senior US military official stated that the US believes that Russia is firing artillery from positions around and in the vicinity of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
- Russian occupation authorities are continuing efforts to forcibly-integrate schools in occupied Ukraine into the Russian educational system and extending methods of social control.
- Russian forces are continuing to move military equipment into Crimea.
- Russian federal subjects (regions) are continuing to recruit and deploy volunteer battalions.
- Russian occupation authorities are taking measures to forcibly-integrate Ukrainian schools into the Russian education space in preparation for the approaching school year.
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Ukrainian forces began striking Russian pontoon ferries across the Dnipro River on August 29, which is consistent with the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The effects of destroying ferries will likely be more ephemeral than those of putting bridges out of commission, so attacking them makes sense in conjunction with active ground operations. Ukrainian military officials confirmed that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian pontoon-ferry crossing in Lvove, approximately 16km west of Nova Kakhovka on the right bank of the Dnipro River on August 29.[1] Ukrainian and Russian sources have also reported that Ukrainian forces struck a pontoon crossing constructed out of barges near the Antonivsky Road Bridge.[2]
Ukrainian forces have long undertaken efforts to destroy Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) prior to the announcement of the counteroffensive operation, which likely indicates that Ukrainian forces are committed to a long-term effort - composed of both strikes and ground assaults. Ukrainian strikes on Russian GLOCs disrupt the Russians’ ability to supply and reinforce their positions with manpower and equipment, which will assist Ukrainian ground counteroffensives. Satellite imagery shows that Russian forces are continuing to use ferries to transfer a limited amount of military equipment daily via the Dnipro River.[3]
The Ukrainian counteroffensive is thus a cohesive process that will require some time to correctly execute. The Kremlin will likely exploit the lack of immediate victory over Kherson City or Ukrainian operational silence on the progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive to misrepresent Ukrainian efforts as failing and to undermine public confidence in its prospects.
Russian forces are continuing to react and adjust their positions throughout southern Ukraine, likely both as a response to the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive and in preparation for broader Ukrainian counter-offensives further east. Russian forces are continuing to transfer large convoys of military equipment from Crimea and Melitopol.[4] Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov also noted that Russian forces have opened up around five military bases and barracks in Melitopol and will likely continue to prepare defenses around Melitopol given its strategically vital GLOCs between Rostov Oblast and southern Ukraine.[5] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces in Kherson Oblast are attempting to conduct rotations of troops, likely in an effort to reinforce some vulnerable positions.[6]
The Ukrainian counteroffensive is likely driving Russian redeployment and reprioritization throughout the theater. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are reinforcing the grouping of forces operating west of Donetsk City area with elements of the Central Military District (CMD).[7] ISW has previously identified that CMD units, under the command of the CMD Commander Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin, operated in the Lysychansk-Siversk area and recently concluded an operational pause in mid-August.[8] The movement of CMD units to Donetsk City area further suggests that Russian forces are deprioritizing the Siversk advance in favor of attempting to sustain momentum around the Donetsk City area. ISW has previously reported that Russian advances around Avdiivka and the western Donetsk City area have effectively culminated following Russian limited breakthroughs around the Butivka Coal Mine ventilation shaft.[9] The redeployment suggests that the Russian command has recognized that it cannot pursue more than one offensive operation at a time.
The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Russian forces are deploying elements of the newly-formed 3rd Army Corps, which is at least in part composed of inexperienced volunteers, to reinforce neglected Russian positions in Kharkiv and Zaporizhia Oblasts.[10] The deployment of the 3rd Army Corps may indicate that Russian forces seek to recoup combat power for use in offensive operations around Donetsk City or defensive operations in Kherson by replacing experienced troops with raw and poorly trained volunteer units.
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Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack on the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast front line on August 30. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces withdrew after an attempted ground assault towards Potomkyne, south of Kryvyi Rih on the T2207 highway.[56] Russian forces struck Mykolaiv City with 16 S-300 missiles and conducted airstrikes and S-300 strikes on the Bashtanka District, northeast of Mykolaiv City on the H11 highway on August 29.[57] Russian forces conducted UAV reconnaissance near Davydiv Brid, Snihurivka, Pravdyne, and Velyke Artakove, all northwest of Kherson City on the front line on August 30.[58] Russian forces continued firing on settlements along the line of contact.[59]
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Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)
Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack north of Kharkiv City on August 30. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted a ground assault near Udy, 32km north of Kharkiv City.[54] Russian forces struck the center of Kharkiv City and continued tube and rocket artillery strikes on the surrounding settlements.[55]
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Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack southwest of Izyum on August 30. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops unsuccessfully attempted to advance in the direction of Shnurky, about 30km south of Izyum and northwest of Slovyansk near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border.[43] Russian forces additionally continued air, artillery, and MLRS attacks along the Izyum-Slovyansk line and struck Husarivka, Krasnopillya, Dolyna, Bohorodychne, Virnopillya, and multiple other settlements near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border.[44]
Russian forces did not conduct any ground attacks towards Siversk on August 30 and shelled Siversk and surrounding settlements.[45]
Russian forces conducted a series of limited ground attacks south of Bakhmut on August 30. Russian troops have likely advanced into Kodema, 13km southeast of Bakhmut. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian troops are trying to consolidate control of Kodema from multiple directions and that fighting is continuing in the area of the settlement.[46] Russian sources state that Russian forces have not yet fully cleared Kodema as of August 30, however.[47] Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Commander Eduard Basurin claimed that Ukrainian forces launched a localized counterattack in Kodema on August 30, which indicates that Russian forces are holding parts of the settlement which are under active contestation.[48] Several Russian milbloggers amplified claims that Russian troops are fighting to fully consolidate control of the entirety of Kodema and use this position to launch attacks northward onto Bakhmut. The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported that Russian troops are attempting to push towards Bakhmut from further south in the Horlivka area and attempted to advance from around Zaitseve (20km south of Bakhmut) and Shumy (23km southwest of Bakhmut).[49] Russian forces continued to strike Bakhmut and its environs with tanks and tube and rocket artillery to support ongoing ground operations.[50]
Russian forces continued ground attacks near the western outskirts of Donetsk City on August 30.
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One Russian official who tangled with NAFO is Mikhail Ulyanov, Moscow’s ambassador to international organizations in Vienna and a well-known peddler of Kremlin propaganda via his 30,000 Twitter followers.
Since the Kremlin ramped up its assault in February, the Russian diplomat has accused the United States of creating a “ministry of truth,” berated social media users for peddling “fake news” and claimed Russia only invaded Ukraine in response to Kyiv’s aggression. That last declaration caught NAFO’s attention.
When someone from the movement accused Ulyanov of rewriting history, the Russian responded with a line he would later regret: “You pronounced this nonsense. Not me.” After more fellas piled on, his message became a meme, quickly emblazoned on NAFO mugs and T-shirts. Ulyanov first accused his Twitter critics of being bots, and then took himself offline for a week after NAFO fellas bombarded his social media account. He later said the social media detox was because he was on vacation.
“This is a group that has done something. It’s a social media force against Russian propagandists,” said Benjamin Tallis, a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank in Berlin, who secured his own “doge” avatar after donating to Ukrainian causes. “They were able to take Ulyanov offline in a week.”
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