MN-01 (Special): Three of the seven outstanding counties have reported: GOP-leaning Fillmore and Waseca Counties, as well as Dem-leaning Blue Earth County. The net result? The lead for Republican Brad Finstad is now down to 53-44, with the most populous county (Olmsted) still to report.
Now, based on 2020 numbers, we would assume that Democrat Jeff Ettinger could pick up as many as 5000 votes in Olmstead County, but he is likely to lose about 1300 votes in Brown County, the home county of his Republican opponent. The other counties are small, and would probably net Finstad no more than about 900 votes. So when all is said and done, best guess is that the GOP will claim this special election, but only by a margin of about 4000 votes (which would translate, assuming turnout is as expected in these last three counties, to about a 3-5 point win).