Jamie Dupree/Substack:
GOP rebellion leaves House without a Speaker
McCarthy falls short on three straight ballots
Remember this: Kevin McCarthy’s weakness is why Marjorie Taylor Greene and George Santos will be seated in this Congress.
Want to make lemonade out of this lemon? Republicans might now be pushed to be honest about how insane their caucus is.
Did McCarthy know he was going to lose by at least 19 in the first three rounds? With anyone else it'd be a ridiculous (and humiliating) question, but it's McCarthy, who was a terrible whip. So it's merely humiliating.
Meanwhile, today’s pundit roundup is brought to you by the number five.
Norm Ornstein and Dennis Aftergut/The Hill:
Five things to expect from the incoming House
Leadership chaos
The chaos will start today, as the new Republican-controlled House selects a Speaker. It takes leadership to herd political cats into the disciplined force necessary to get things done for the American people.
The incoming House doesn’t have it. With House Republican infighting untamed, current House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) remains short of the votes he needs to become House Speaker.
To get them, he has reportedly floated a concession aimed at the right-wing Freedom Caucus’s demands that five members may call a vote to replace the Speaker. That Sword of Damocles hanging over his head would effectively strip him of authority to do anything other than what the most extremist members want.
Mick Ryan/News:
Five factors that will shape the Russia-Ukraine war in 2023
There is much in the Ukraine War that is shrouded in uncertainty.
As Prussian general and military theorist Carl von Clausewitz wrote, "part of the information obtained in war is contradictory, a still greater part is false, and by far the greatest part is of a doubtful character."
Predictions about the outcomes of this war are nearly impossible.
However, there are some variables which are likely to have a significant impact on the course of the war in 2023.
…
3. Will the West step up?
A third variable is the willingness of the West to provide more sophisticated ground and air offensive capabilities to Ukraine.
Western nations have taken a stepped approach to providing weapons to Ukraine. Eschewing the provision of tanks, fighter aircraft and long-range strike missiles, America and Europe have focused on simple to use, tactical weapons.
Part of the theory for this is to ensure that training and logistics are given to ensure that systems provided to Ukraine are supportable over the long term.
But there are also some in the US and Europe who see the provision of advanced weapons such as tanks and the long-range missiles as an escalation.
NY Times:
Trying to Trademark ‘Rigged Election,’ and Other Revelations From the Jan. 6 Transcripts
The Jan. 6 committee released a whirlwind of documents in its final days and wrapped up its work on Monday.
The nation’s top military officer saw the Jan. 6 attack as similar to the “Reichstag moment” that led to Nazi dictatorship. Aides for former President Donald J. Trump saw their future job opportunities slipping away, and predicted being “perpetually unemployed.” Mr. Trump himself saw the push to overturn the 2020 election as a financial opportunity, moving to trademark the phrase “Rigged Election.”
These were among the latest revelations from the House Jan. 6 committee, which released a whirlwind of documents in its final days and wrapped up its work on Monday. Since Friday night, the panel has released several troves of evidence, including about 120 previously unseen transcripts along with emails and text messages obtained during its 18-month inquiry, totaling tens of thousands of pages.
Julian E. Zelizer/Atlantic:
The Mistakes Historians Make on Television
History professionals can offer crucial insights on the great issues of the day. But best beware these stock phrases.
The main pitfalls involve clichéd shorthands or tropes—tempting to use when communicating with a lay audience, but distorting and reductive. There are five, in particular, I’ve heard too many times.
Unprecedented: We use the word because it seems a surefire way of getting attention in a media environment that is constantly searching for novelty. Fundamental breaks are more newsworthy than more of the same. For the historian, it’s also a way of stepping into the shoes of contemporary observers who feel as if something could never have happened before.
The problem is that unprecedented can be misleading: To say something is without precedent ignores comparable phenomena in the past, even if they took a different form. Consider President Donald Trump’s penchant for false statements: To declare his lies “unprecedented” risks downplaying how much presidential lying we’ve seen throughout American history. How should we weigh Lyndon B. Johnson’s 1964 fabrication about an attack by the North Vietnamese in the Gulf of Tonkin—which became the pretext for one of the United States’ most catastrophic military interventions ever—with Trump’s habitual lies? Or George W. Bush’s grossly exaggerated claims about Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction, which proved false after being used to justify a disastrous invasion of Iraq that lasted from 2003 until 2011?
Jill Lawrence/Bulwark:
Moderate Democrats Are the Future of the Party
They have the energy and the momentum, they know how to cut deals, and their “boring” messaging works.
As a strategic matter, it’s no secret why moderates are crucial. The Pew Research Center classifies only 6 percent of Americans and 12 percent of Democrats as “progressive left.” “Democratic mainstays,” the largest group in the party and the country, are older loyalists with “a moderate tilt on some issues,” in Pew’s phrase. The fact is that Democrats across the spectrum share many goals, among them equitable justice; police accountability; more immigration and a more humane, practical system; voting and abortion rights; and respect for people’s identities, whatever they may be.
For the record, I’m on the “mainstay” wavelength—someone who frets about deficits, believes in compromise, and respects negotiators (yes, even Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema). It’s infuriating that Republicans routinely portray the Democratic party as one big socialist mob that coddles criminals, hates the police, loves open borders and lectures nonstop on pronouns, and millions of voters believe them. My top political wish for 2023 is that Democrats stop handing ammo to Republicans.
George Santos for Speaker of the House
Despite agreeing to give up some of his authority and power as Speaker, House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) reportedly still doesn’t have enough votes to win. The result is pure chaos. The “Kevin Only” crowd has vowed not to vote for anyone else, while the “Never Kevin” gang still can’t come up with a candidate to replace him. And, in desperation, some Republicans are beating the bushes looking for anybody — even a former member or non-member of Congress — willing to take the job.
Meanwhile, the perfect candidate is staring them right in the face. Why all the confusion? There’s one obvious answer — the one man who, in the spirit of Donald Trump, embodies everything the Republican Party stands for today. The one man who’s perfect for the job: New York’s newly elected Rep. George Santos.
Charles P. Pierce/Esquire:
It's the NFL's Players—And Their Humanity—that Could Save the League's Soul
Players' empathy and solidarity with Damar Hamlin on Monday night showed heart, but also the power of collective action.
In hindsight, it may seem like it should have been the most obvious decision in the world, but it appeared more like one forced upon the NFL office by the people in constant peril on the field. (Troy Vincent, the NFL's executive vice president for football operations, said on a conference call last night that "What was most important was that it wasn't about proceeding with the game," and according to ESPN, that "resuming play did not cross their minds.") It was a wildcat job action of the heart, a rebellion based in empathetic solidarity.
On ESPN, Ryan Clark, a former Pro Bowl defensive back who won a Super Bowl with Pittsburgh, explained the dynamic at work on the field in Cincinnati:
When Damar Hamlin falls to the turf, and when you see the medical staff rush to the field and both teams are on the field, you realize this isn't normal. You realize this isn't just football. So many times in this game, and in our job as well, we use the cliches: ‘I'm ready to die for this. I'm willing to give my life for this. It's time to go to war.’ And I think sometimes we use those things so much, we forget that part of living this dream is putting your life at risk. Tonight we got to see a side of football that is extremely ugly. A side of football that no one ever wants to see and never wants to admit exists. When you see both teams on the field crying in that way, your first thought is Damar Hamlin, your second thought is his family. This isn't about a football player. This is about a human. This is about a brother. This is about a son. This is about a friend. This is about someone who is loved by so many that you have to watch go through this.