The first law of humanity is not to kill your children. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, atmospheric scientist, climatologist, and founder of The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Despite being in a La Nina climate cooling pattern, the world has endured deadly droughts, heat waves, and heavy rainfall flooding in 2022. It was a brutal year for billions as climate change supercharged the effects of La Nina, intensifying natural disasters across the earth. That pattern is expected to continue perhaps to August or fall of 2023 when the warming climate pattern of El Nino arrives. We will be out of the frying pan and into the fire as surface temperatures are expected to heat further, perhaps to the Paris milestone of 1.5C or higher, as climate breakdown continues to intensify unabated. In other words, we were spared the worse last year. We won't be spared in 2023 by any means.
The heat dome in Europe is moving east toward Ukraine. But record-smashing January high temperatures erupted across Belarus, Denmark, the Czech Republic, Poland, the Netherlands, Latvia, Lithuania, and Liechtenstein. Temperatures were up to 36 F above average. The heat dome blanketed Europe on New Year's Eve. Temperature records fell across the European continent on New Year's Day. The dome has slowly moved east, and Ukraine's warm temperatures will begin to ease.
Ian Livingston writes for the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang:
This exceptional wintertime warmth comes on the heels of the warmest 2022 in many parts of Europe, including in the U.K., Germany and Switzerland.
Extreme heat visited Europe in waves throughout the year and was intensified by a historically severe summer drought. The combination helped push the United Kingdom to 104 degrees (40 Celsius) for the first time on record in July.
Although the warmth is slowly easing in Europe as Arctic air creeps in from the northeast, above-normal temperatures are forecast for much of the mainland region through at least Jan. 10. After that, the forecast is a little less clear, but a cooler pattern could emerge by mid-month.
Euro Green News:
“We can regard this as the most extreme event in European history,” Herrera told the Guardian.
“Take the case of July 2022 UK extreme heatwave and spread this sigma (magnitude) in a much huger area, encompassing about 15 countries.”
He added that this phenomenon is the first in Europe that can be compared to the extremes experienced by North America this year.
Scientists are still trying to work out the reason for the unseasonal temperatures.
“It’s been extreme heat across a huge area, which is almost, to be honest, unheard of,” Alex Burkill, a senior meteorologist at the Met Office, told the Guardian.
He explained that a mass of warm air had been generated off the west coast of Africa and had moved across Europe.
“It has been widespread, Denmark, Czech Republic, as well as pretty much the whole of Germany have seen temperatures for January exceeding records,” Burkill said.
But meteorologist Scott Duncan noted that even taking into account the unusually warm sea surface too, it doesn’t seem to explain the staggering temperature rises.
What climate scientists are sure of, however, is that these anomalous heatwaves are going to continue to become more common and more extreme thanks to global warming.
It's going down, and we aren't ready.
From The Wire:
A global average temperature rise of 1.5°C is widely regarded as marking a guardrail beyond which climate breakdown becomes dangerous. Above this figure, our once-stable climate will begin to collapse in earnest, becoming all-pervasive, affecting everyone, and insinuating itself into every aspect of our lives. In 2021, the figure (compared to the 1850–1900 average) was 1.2°C, while in 2019—before the development of the latest La Niña—it was a worryingly high 1.36°C. As the heat builds again in 2023, it is perfectly possible that we will touch or even exceed 1.5°C for the first time.
But what will this mean exactly? I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the record for the highest recorded temperature—currently 54.4°C (129.9°F) in California's Death Valley—shattered. This could well happen somewhere in the Middle East or South Asia, where temperatures could climb above 55°C. The heat could exceed the blistering 40°C mark again in the UK, and for the first time, top 50°C in parts of Europe.
Inevitably, higher temperatures will mean that severe drought will continue to be the order of the day, slashing crop yields in many parts of the world. In 2022, extreme weather resulted in reduced harvests in China, India, South America, and Europe, increasing food insecurity. Stocks are likely to be lower than normal going into 2023, so another round of poor harvests could be devastating. Resulting food shortages in most countries could drive civil unrest, while rising prices in developed countries will continue to stoke inflation and the cost-of-living crisis.
One of the worst-affected regions will be the Southwest United States. Here, the longest drought in at least 1,200 years has persisted for 22 years so far, reducing the level of Lake Mead on the Colorado River so much that power generation capacity at the Hoover Dam has fallen by almost half. Upstream, the Glen Canyon Dam, on the rapidly shrinking Lake Powell, is forecast to stop generating power in 2023 if the drought continues. The Hoover Dam could follow suit in 2024. Together, these lakes and dams provide water and power for millions of people in seven states, including California. The breakdown of this supply would be catastrophic for agriculture, industry, and populations right across the region.
Having lived in hurricane country, this scenario freaked me out. If conditions are favorable, heating from this El Nino could so warm ocean surface temperature in the Atlantic Basin that a major American city could be taken-out.
