We can assume the claimed numbers are exaggerated. The personnel numbers clearly included wounded, and can’t be anything more than a rough guesstimate in the best of circumstances. It’s doubtful even Russia knows the real number of its casualties. And in the past month of fierce combat around Avdiivka, the open source intelligence community has been able to visually verify less than half of the claimed armored vehicle kills, despite extensive drone and satellite footage of the entire battlefield. It is what it is.
Still, the claimed numbers are useful as a barometer of intensity. And right now, we’re seeing some of the fiercest fighting of the war.
A spokesman for one of the units fighting in the area claims that Russia has gathered 40,000 soldiers around Avdiivka for a final push into the town. I am skeptical of that number, as it is in Ukraine’s interest to exaggerate the number—it both adds urgency for further aid packages from its allies, while presenting a handy excuse if it becomes necessary to retreat.
Yet this entire war, Russia has proven incapable of massing forces, and it wasn’t long ago that Ukraine claimed that Russia had over 100,000 soldiers massed near Kupyansk in the country’s north. The most Russia managed was a handful of insignificant villages in that approach, which Ukraine may or may not have retaken (as no one seems overly concerned about it).
Russia has certainly attempted surprisingly larger-scale operations around Avdiivka, but they’ve been clumsy single-file approaches down easily targeted roads. This one was mid-October:
Another one a week ago:
Infantry small unit attacks continue, giving cluster munitions the chance to do their best work:
Ukraine reported another major armored attack yesterday, likely leading to Ukraine’s elevated kill claims. We don’t have video of that yet. But reporters are trickling out of more of the same Russian meat-grinder tactics, and results, as we’ve seen the last six weeks. AFP reports:
"The fields are just littered with corpses," Oleksandr, (one name) a deputy of a Ukrainian battalion in the 47th mechanized brigade, told Agence France-Presse.
"They are trying to exhaust our lines with constant waves of attacks," he said. He did not provide his full name for security reasons.
“The fields are just littered with corpses” is not an exaggeration, as you can see in photos and videos here, here, here, here, here, and here. All the usual caveats apply. It’s gruesome stuff. Combat is bad enough, but just witnessing this is traumatic enough. Those drone operators dropping grenades and steering FPV suicide drones into other humans will have trouble sleeping for the rest of their lives. Ukraine will face a mental health crisis for decades.
Here is the current map:
Avdiivka
Orlivka, which I’ve circled, is the logistical lifeline for Avdiivka. That road running to its east has to feed Ukrainian defenses all the way through to its southeastern tip, surrounded on three sides most of the way.
The author of this map, Andrew Perpetua, has marked six Russian air strikes in town, which is what Ukraine’s general staff claim took place yesterday. But the rims is where the action is happening, almost exclusively drone strikes from both sides.
As of now, Russia is trying to encircle Avdiivka, or at the very least, bring that one last remaining supply road into town under direct fire control. Ukraine cannot hold the town without that lifeline.
Still, Russia’s encircling attempts have created two salients of their own, both north and south of Avdiivka, presenting some tempting counterattack opportunities.
Ukraine has long since given up using its armor for its operations in southern Ukraine. Both the Kherson and the Zaporizhzhia fronts feature mostly small infantry tactics today.
As such, this is a great place for that armor to redeploy, as those Russian flanks don’t enjoy the kind of defensive structures that cover Ukraine’s south. Even if the “40,000” claim is real, it still requires Russia to expose a great number of its forces within easy flank attack. And lo and behold, we’re now seeing video of some of Ukraine’s best armor engaging in this fight.
Here is a Leopard 2 in action:
And here is an M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle in action:
Note how the Bradley deploys a smoke screen to mask its location, then uses its thermal sights to find its targets beyond it. (And as an aside, that smoke screen is white phosphorous, which is used by all armies to generate smoke screens. The use of white phosphorous for smoke is not prohibited by international law, and in fact, has an explicit carve out to those prohibitions. So when you see claims about white phosphorous regarding, ahem, another current conflict, they are bullshit.)
Here, two Bradleys evacuate a squad, including wounded, at risk of being overrun.
Again, note the use of smoke to shield their position from the enemy.
No one is pretending the situation at Avdiivka isn’t difficult, and as Russia closes the vice, there certainly appears to be an uptick in Ukrainian casualties from several weeks ago. But look at Perpetua’s map up above again—aside from the assault on the coke factory—Russia must attack across open fields. Those aren’t just getting muddier by the day, but they allow Ukraine’s drones, mine layers, cluster munitions, and rocket artillery to work effectively.
Perhaps Russia can charge 40,000 men across those fields all at once, a la Braveheart, overwhelm Ukrainian defenses, and claim themselves some sort of victory. But it is far more likely that it continues to roll out hapless mobiks in waves, to be chewed up by Ukrainian defenses.
Drones as literal infantry air support:
A brutal 33-minute uncut video of what war in the trenches around Avdiivka looks like:
Russian delivers drinking water to the troops, films it, and gives Ukraine everything it needs to wipe out the position.
I find the number of drones—20 in this case—interesting. It means Ukraine has the means to send swarms of them against targets.
