So if you’ve been on any sort of social media today you’re likely seeing everyone freak the hell out about the NY Times/Siena polls of 6 battleground states which, a year out, show us devolving into fascism. Short version: we’re losing 5 of 6 battleground states if the election were held today.
I’m not going to tell you not to worry, because you should ALWAYS worry. But even so, there’s something very fishy about these results. My suspicion is that it’s a bunch of Dem infighting based on Biden’s age, Gaza, and maybe a few other issues that are causing folks to respond strategically to polls.
And to make a few things clear: 1) Siena is a very good pollster (Nate Cohn is the far superior Nate). Looking at past historical polling misses is a fishing expedition. For instance, at this point in 2019, they had Biden winning PA by 3, and he won by about 1. Pretty good. 2) The cries of “low response rate” and “I’VE never been polled!” are silly.
But, and this is the important thing, when you look at voting demographics, they remain remarkably steady over time. For instance, per Pew, here’s how hispanic voters cast their votes in from 1980-2012.
with a Dem advantage of 38 in 2016, and 21 in 2020.
In other words, Dem advantage has been anywhere from 18 (when the candidate was “Texan” GW Bush) to 51, but generally in the 20’s or 30’s. Siena/NY Times would have you believe the advantage is 8. No wonder the poll has Biden getting walloped in Nevada.
For black voters, Siena would have you believe that Trump is going to get 21% of the black vote. He got 8% in 2020, and 6% in 2016. Not only are those numbers remarkably consistent, they are a hell of a lot lower than 21.
The only race that remotely makes sense is white voters, which Trump leads by 15. He won them by 12 in 2020, and 15 in 2016.
Finally, in 2020 Biden won young voters (under 30) by 24 points. Hillary won them by 30 in 2016. Again, a relatively modest shift. We’re supposed to believe that Biden is only ahead by 1? Pardon my french, but that bull crap.
I don’t know whether it’s bad methodology or strategic responses, but I can tell you that this in no way reflects what will actually happen a year from now.