UPDATE: Friday, Feb 3, 2023 · 8:15:11 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
I’ve been phoning around in an attempt to get some answers on the quantity and timing on GLSDB, and what I have for you is … nada. There have been statements from some analysts claiming that there were already stockpiles of GLSDB on hand. There have been other claims that there are no such stockpiles, everything is being made from scratch, the production line is not even up, and that’s why it will take 9 months. I’ve been unable to resolve the difference. The official Boeing position is that they are “not talking about supplies, schedules or production at this time.”
If I find anything, I’ll let you know.
UPDATE: Friday, Feb 3, 2023 · 7:09:45 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
The Russian ministry of defense reports the destruction of two more HIMARS systems today. They have now destroyed over 220% of all HIMARS delivered to Ukraine, so Russia should feel absolutely safe about grouping all their equipment, ammo, and troops into one big pile.
On Friday, with Russian forces reportedly making advances to both north and south, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared once again that the city of Bakhmut would never be surrendered. Ukraine will “fight as much as we can.”
Meanwhile, inside Bakhmut the pounding of Russian artillery has increased. Every area of the city is now targeted by a near-constant artillery barrage that makes no distinctions between civilian and military buildings. Bakhmut is being slowly reduced while fighting continues on the north, east, and south sides of the city. Things there are … not good. However, on this morning as on every morning for the last eight months, Bakhmut holds.
This morning, the U.S. has made the latest $2 billiob package of military assistance to Ukraine official. The list of gear includes more HIMARS ammo, more Javelins, and a pair of HAWK air defense systems. However, the closest that the announcement comes to talking about the 150-kilometer range Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) is the line “precision-guided rockets.” So figuring out how many GLSDB are on their way has been left as a challenge to the reader.
Too bad they couldn’t be at Bakhmut today.
Some days, I get a good reminder of why it’s better to be the kind of journalist who compiles and analyzes information in a moderately clean and well-lighted space, and not actually a war correspondent whose reporting of events involves having to move because of artillery shells.
In this thread, Patrikarakos brings back a number of observations from the city he describes as a “hellscape of destruction.” One is just how deserted Bakhmut seems to be at this point. Where earlier videos of the city showed people stubbornly trying to hold onto some sliver of normality, and even operate small businesses in the parts of the city farthest from the fighting, that no longer seems to be the case. Every video of Bakhmut in the last week shows mostly empty streets running between what appears to be nearly universal destruction, with no building untouched by the months of bombardment.
In that first video from Patrikarakos, you can hear him say that the streets are deserted except for “the odd elderly person.” That ties to this even more incredible thread from reporter Arman Soldin. In the center of Bakhmut, Soldin finds that some of the city’s oldest residents are not just refusing to leave, they are daring regular trips through some of the most hazardous regions to obtain small rations of firewood, food, and clean water.
Watching these people struggle across a fallen bridge to return to their damaged, unheated homes in the midst of a destroyed city as artillery shakes the ground and rifle fire crackles in the background is horrifying. It’s surreal. It’s heartbreaking in the extreme. How can anyone withstand this? What kind of monsters would subject other human beings to such conditions?
It’s impossible to wonder why they don’t leave. At the same time, it’s absolutely understandable why they refuse.
Some of these people have lived their whole lives in Bakhmut. They were children there. They went to school, and on family picnics, and watched parades there. They fell in love there. They had their own children there. Their parents and grandparents are buried there. This is their home. This has always been their home. And now it is dying around them. Day by day, the landscape of their lives is being erased.
How could they possibly leave? Where else would they go?
Just watching them brings on such a powerful feeling of anger, sorrow, and frustration. And that can only be a candle flame next to the sun of what they are feeling.
The bullet point list of equipment doesn’t get explicit, but what’s clear from this list is that there are few “big-ticket items,” such as dozens of tanks, but there is quite a hefty price tag.
That creates the impression that the number that should be attached to a lot of the items with unspecified quantities comes down to “a lot.” As in a lot of HIMARS ammo. A lot of anti-aircraft guns. And hopefully a lot of precision-guided missiles, in the form of GLSDB.
On Thursday, the Associated Press discussed the sending of GLSDB and made it clear that both U.S. and Ukrainian officials were holding back on giving details like numbers and arrival dates. Operational security has been one of the hallmarks of Ukraine’s operations during the invasion. The first time Russia learns of the presence of GLSDB in Ukraine is likely to be when their new HQ at Henivhesk just north of Crimea, or the train junction at Starobilsk comes under fire.
Here. Have another promo video.
The good news is that a spokesperson at the Pentagon has confirmed that the “precision-guided” line refers to GLSDB. The bad news is that the spokesperson indicated that getting these weapons into Ukraine would take … nine months. Please let this be disinformation.
Considering the reported cost of GLSDB puts each missile between $30,000 and $40,000, this package could easily contain thousands of such missiles while still crossing off the other items on the list. Fingers crossed that this is exactly the case.
I started promising that I would dig into the French AMX-10rc several days ago, with intentions of talking about how this not-a-tank is used very much as a tank by the French to spearhead operations in Africa, but is unlikely to play the same role in Ukraine. But while I was getting delayed by other news, the Task & Purpose guys made a video that hits most of the topics I meant to cover. So watch the video.
Is it really air defense if a drone can hover overhead for an extended period and direct artillery to a precision strike?
Watching these Russian kids wiggle across the snow as “military training” may seem ridiculous. However, a) it’s more extensive training than some of the Russians mobilized now in Ukraine received and b) considering the rumors of another massive call-up, these kids could be in the next wave.
I particularly like the “spin around until you’re dizzy and then fire a gun” drill. If this is a regular part of Russian military training, it would help explain some of their assaults.
On this episode of The Downballot, don't miss a special double-guest episode. Hear from Tiffany Muller, the president of End Citizens United, as she discusses the group's efforts to roll back the corrupting effects of the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision and their plans for campaign finance reform. Then, law professor Quinn Yeargain joins to discuss the surprising setback Gov. Kathy Hochul faced in the state capitol and what it means for the future of New York's top court.