UPDATE: Sunday, Mar 12, 2023 · 3:18:17 AM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
Reports from the Ukrainian military indicate Russia suffered over 500 casualties in a single day at Bakhmut. However, the situation is not good. Pressure on the north of the city and toward the “road of life” is extreme.
Ukrainian general staff indicates that holding Bakhmut remains a priority. But it’s hard to estimate the cost.
UPDATE: Saturday, Mar 11, 2023 · 8:04:57 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
Unclear if this is the aftermath of the video below. If not, it's the result of a very similar incident. The DPICM mentioned here is “Dual-purpose improved conventional munition.” That’s the type of shell designed to burst into thousands of small projectiles a few dozen feet about the ground, hitting an area like a giant shotgun.
There are some big numbers to get to this morning when it comes to events on the battlefield over the last 24 hours. However, before going to Ukraine, here’s a little side trip to Russia.
Verstka Media is an independent Russian news organization launched around the start of the invasion of Ukraine. They’ve reported previously on what people inside Russia believe about war crimes happening during the invasion and about the attitudes of Russians outside of Moscow when it comes to the mobilization and resulting deaths. They’ve become a go-to source for many outlets seeking some insight into how Russians really feel about the war launched by Vladimir Putin … including how the feel about Vladimir Putin.
However, their latest article is something else. It’s a tale of accusations, both true and false. A story of appalling betrayals; of petty grievances turned into overwhelming vengeance. It’s a Hamlet-esque tale of sly insinuation and brutal retribution playing out in hair salons and grocery stores.
It’s the amazing true story of how Russia is being overrun by a wave of Russians ratting each other out for fun, profit, and pure spite.
Selling your friends out to the state, whether it earns a slightly nicer apartment or just that warm feeling of delivering some comeuppance, is a long tradition in Russia. Only now it seems that the invasion of Ukraine has supercharged the game, resulting in “massive” numbers of charges for casual comments “dropped in bars, supermarkets, saunas, beauty salons, at the post office and even on the porch of their dacha.”
One man was jailed and received a 45,000 rubles fine after he reportedly shouted “Glory to Ukraine, then!” after getting into an argument during a New Year’s celebration at a sushi restaurant. Two young women at another restaurant found themselves under scrutiny when they began to discuss the war over dinner. Another guest at the restaurant summoned the military police and the two women were arrested. Just for good measure, they also arrested one of the women’s husbands, even though he hadn’t been at the restaurant.
One man was arrested in church when others thought he said “Glory to Ukraine” rather than following along with a prayer that said “Glory to the soldiers who have died in Ukraine.” Another man got a jail sentence when he drunkenly railed against Putin and Chechen mercenary leader Ramzan Kadyrov while waiting in line at a Pyaterochka (the Russian equivalent of 7-11). Another man was arrested when his neighbors called to complain that he was playing a song that included the phrase “glorious Ukraine.” That it was an old song that long predated the war didn’t stop him from racking up a 30,000 ruble fine.
A man was fined because his neighbors claimed he “raised his hands like a fascist” while discussing Ukraine with his father. A woman arrested because it appeared she had put tape over a picture of Putin on her luggage and another passenger on her flight went to the airport police to report this “crime.”
All over Russia, it’s open season on anyone. All it takes is a quick suggestion that they said something against Putin, the war, or the Russian military. Or a claim that they were caught saying anything favorable about Ukraine. No evidence required. Rat Season has only been boosted by new legislation that has upped penalties and added even more restrictions about what it’s permissible to say.
Russians are ratting Russians out in such numbers that even attorneys are fed up over dealing with the cases. Those who have long harbored a grudge are using this as an opportunity to get back at the guy they didn’t think was respectful enough in the local bar, or the neighbor who played his music too loud.
And the worse things get in Ukraine, the more “traitors” they’re going to find.
All right, here are those promised numbers, and they’re a doozy. In a single day, Ukraine reports that Russia lost over 1000 men, 10 tanks, and 20 APVs.
Over the last seven days, average estimated Russian losses have exceeded 800 men a day. Tanks have been going out at a rate of at least 5 a days.
The obvious question in response to such numbers is: Where? And, of course, the obvious answer is: Bakhmut. Fighting in the area continues to be severe, with Russian forces continuing a slow advance into the city and fighting happening in almost open fields on both the north and south flanks of the city.
But the actual answer to the “where” question is “almost everywhere.” Over the same period that these casualties were reported, the Ukrainian general staff reports that forces on the ground repelled over 100 Russian assaults from Kupyansk down to Vuhledar. That includes the latest attempt by Russia to push west from Kreminna, an effort that seems to have ended almost precisely on the lines that have existed since December.
All over Ukraine, Russia’s big “winter offensive” seems to have little to show for itself. That estimated 80 square kilometers around Bakhmut, and a few ungarrisoned villages northeast of Kupyansk, seems to be all that has been netted in a period where Russia has lost over 50,000 men.
By most measures, the situation in Bakhmut continues to disintegrate. The fighting today is running right through the heart of the city, Russian forces have managed to sporadically close off supply lines to the west and make travel along “the road of life” subject to artillery bombardment. Attempts to close the “pincers” around the city appear to be making slow, brutal progress, especially on the north near the village of Berkhivka.
Over the last several days, complaints have been rising from Ukrainian forces in the city who feel they’re being neglected or left to die. Reports have indicated that the lack of steady supplies have affected Ukraine’s ability to maintain positions. Previous estimates that Russia was losing between 7 and 8 soldiers for every 1 Ukrainian troop who died, have dropped to numbers like 3:1. Or even 1:1.
The costs of maintaining Ukraine’s position in Bakhmut are extremely high, and the universal sentiment around the current situation can be summed up by this tweet.
It’s easy to call up reasons why Ukraine might want to maintain it’s position in the city:
- Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin has been talking about taking a “tactical pause,” or reorganizing his force among reports that Wagner is both undersupplied and running low on men.
- Holding onto Bakhmut may be much easier than retaking it, especially if Russia keeps a large force centered there.
- With Western tanks, other new systems, and freshly retrained troops about to enter the conflict, Ukraine may feel that keeping Russian pinned at Bakhmut opens the door for an offensive elsewhere.
- The political importance that has been attached to the city is so large at this point, that surrendering it may seem too great a loss in terms of morale.
But it’s even easier to sum up why Ukraine should pull back to higher ground and new entrenchments, letting Russia have the rubble: The cost of staying is so very, very high.
A huge amount of trust is being placed on Volodymyr Zelenskyy and on his military commanders. Zelenskyy’s frequent attendance at funerals of military commanders being lost in Bakhmut seems to indicate he understands that cost. All we can do is hope the gamble they are making turns out to be worth it.
The first Leopard II tanks donated by Poland are now in Ukraine. The first group from Germany is expected in the next two weeks, along with Challenger 2 tanks from the U.K.
Now some timelines are emerging on more pending arrivals.
Still no definitive date on the first U.S. Abrams tanks, but don’t look for them before summer. On the other hand, 60 of the promised Bradley Fighting Vehicles were in Germany last month being prepped for delivery. They could be over the border any day. They could be there now. Ukraine has already taken delivery of the first batch of French AMX-10rc wheeled vehicles.
If the training, logistics, and tactical deployment of these vehicles has been worked out, Ukraine should be able to role out some forces using Western equipment (and hopefully, Western combined arms tactics), in a matter of weeks — General Mud allowing.
But where those forces will go is still something that absolutely no one seems to know.
This is an interesting claim, if true.
That Pakistan would do anything that was seen as weakening its military relative to India would be extraordinary. However, they may be fishing to see just how much money a tank will fetch on the market these days. Expect these to be marked up more than new F-150 lightnings at your local Ford dealer.
Ukrainian soldiers in a trench outside Bakhmut are nearly overrun by invaders who came across no man’s land unscathed. But then … they are no man.