As a Time Lord I love to play a little game with myself. I like to predict the future and then jump forward in time to see if I’m right. Ok, I really can’t time travel, but I still like predicting things and then sit around and wait with the rest of you humans to see if I was right. So with that preface, here’s a question I’ve been pondering for some time:
What Will The GOP Do If When Trump Is Indicted?
Let’s start this prediction game with a few highly probable future events:
1. We know that Trump is under investigation for numerous crimes on both the State and Federal level. At the risk of leaving out some, here’s my list —
- State — Fulton County Georgia investigation into the Raffensburger election tampering and the Georgia Fake Electors scheme;
- State — Michigan AG’s investigation into the Michigan Fake Electors scheme;
- State — New York Manhattan DA’s investigation into the Stormy Daniel’s pay off scheme;
- State — New York Manhattan DA’s investigation into Trump’s alleged tax & bank fraud crimes;
- Federal — DoJ Special Counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into Trump’s Mara Lago classified document heist and subsequent obstruction of justice;
- Federal — DoJ Special Counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into Trump’s role in the seven (7) states’ fake electors scheme;
- Federal — DoJ Special Counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into Trump’s role in the Jan. 6 Insurrection; and
- Please add any I have forgotten in the comment section below.
One doesn’t have to be much of a psychic to know that the odds of Trump getting indicted on one or more of the above alleged crimes in the next few months is EXTREMELY HIGH. The odds of Trump being able to completely avoid any indictment over the next 2 years are probably much higher than avoiding death while playing Russian Roulette with 5 out of 6 loaded chambers. My guess the first one we will see is out of Georgia since the Special Garand Jury has already recommended several indictments and it’s very likely that DA Fani Willis has empaneled a regular Grand Jury (one capable of issuing indictments) that can sit for a 2 month period, meaning we could see indictments anytime between now and the end of April.
2. On the other hand, the chances of a Trump conviction on any indictment before the GOP Primaries are completed in mid 2024, are probably pretty low. Not that he won’t eventually be convicted, just not in a timeframe where he could somehow be forced out of the Primaries. So it seems all to likely that Trump will be indicted (maybe more than once) but not convicted heading into the GOP Primaries.
While I’m not sure what the GOP rules/requirements are for Primary candidates, but if there is no rule forbidding a candidate from running while under indictment, they’re pretty much screwed. There is no chance they could pass such a rule now that the Trump MAGAs are running the Party, and there is no chance that Trump will voluntarily drop out if indicted. In fact, an indictment would no doubt fire up the GOP base voters and improve Trumps chances of winning the nomination.
I should say here that in my skimming of the US Constitution, I can find nothing prohibiting an indictment Presidential candidate from being elected and holding office, or even a convicted one for that matter. If you can find such a prohibition, please post in the comments.
So what will the GOP do with an indicted candidate running in their Primaries?
Beats me, but you can kiss any hopes of GOP Party unity good bye! To further complicate matters for the GOP, each State requires each candidate running for President to collect a minimum number of signatures to get on the ballot to run for President, and they all have different deadlines for submitting the required number of signatures. Many States have deadlines that fall in late 2023 and very early 2024. So by the time you get to the end of the Primary season and the GOP convention, it will be too late for the GOP to put some other candidate on the ballot in each State, meaning they would be stuck with Trump if he were to win the Primaries, regardless of his legal situation at that time. Sure they may be able to play games at the Convention in August and put one of the other candidates who also had enough signatures in enough States to be on the ballot. But think what that would do to the Party who overturned the will of their members. It would blow the Party apart and guarantee a defeat in November.
No, the GOP opened Pandora’s Box when they ran Trump in 2016, and now Trump has taken that box and locked the GOP in it so there is no way out for them since Trump has the only old and rusted key.
My only advise for us Democrats, is to stock up on popcorn, we are in for some wild entertaining times ahead!
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