Russia launched a missile attack deliberately on the home town of the band representing Ukraine in The Eurovision Song Contest.
- Moscow acknowledged that its forces had fallen back north of Ukraine’s ruined eastern city of Bakhmut, in a retreat that the head of Russia’s Wagner private army called a “rout”.
- The Ukrainian military said in a daily update that Russia was focusing its efforts near Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka in eastern Ukraine. “The enemy carried out 36 attacks in these directions in the last 24 hours,” it said.
- Russian-installed officials in the occupied eastern Ukrainian region of Luhansk said missiles fired by Kyiv injured six children and a Russian parliamentarian. Two disused factories were also damaged, they said.
- The commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet said it was strengthening its defences amid a flurry of Ukrainian drone strikes aimed at the Crimean port of Sevastopol. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.
- Two Russian pilots were killed when a Russian Mi-28 military helicopter crashed in Crimea, Russian news agencies reported, citing the defence ministry.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine had to keep pressing Russian forces and promised more weapons to his soldiers. “We must put pressure on them every day so that their sense of defeat turns into their flight, their mistakes, their losses”, he said in his daily address.
- The Chinese foreign ministry said Li Hui, China’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, would visit Ukraine, Poland, France, Germany and Russia from Monday to promote peace talks.
- The Kremlin said it was unaware of a Vatican peace mission after diplomatic sources told the Reuters news agency that Zelenskyy was expected to meet Pope Francis in the Vatican on Saturday.
- South Africa’s foreign ministry said in a statement the US ambassador to South Africa had “apologised unreservedly” for claims a sanctioned Russian ship had picked up weapons in South Africa last year.
- The United Kingdom’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was “disappointed” at European broadcasters banning Zelenskyy from sending a video message at the final of this weekend’s Eurovision Song Contest. The organisers say the event, won by Ukraine last year, is “non-political”.
- Zelenskyy spoke on the phone to Sunak about Ukraine’s future in NATO and thanked him for donating long-range missiles to Ukraine.
- Germany plans to buy 18 Leopard 2 tanks for 525 million euros ($578m) to replace tanks delivered to Ukraine, a defence source told the Reuters news agency.
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- Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack in the Bakhmut area amid unconfirmed claims of further marginal Ukrainian gains southwest of the city as of May 13.
- Russian forces conducted a Shahed-131/136 drone strike against Ukraine on the night of May 12 to 13.
- Russian media reported that two Russian Mi-8 helicopters, an Su-34 bomber, and an Su-35 fighter crashed in Bryansk Oblast on May 13, which some Russian sources claimed was caused by Ukrainian air defenses.
- Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces struck rear Russian areas in Luhansk Oblast with British Storm Shadow cruise missiles on May 12 and 13, prompting heightened Russian anxiety about potential Ukrainian abilities to target Russian logistics.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin’s insistence on conducting the war in Ukraine in the style of the “Great Patriotic Special Military Operation” has opened the door for several hardline actors to advocate for the institutionalization of increasingly Stalinist domestic policies.
- Former Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Sergey Avakyants reportedly received an appointment to lead a new Russian force generation organization called “Voin” (“Warrior”), which reportedly replaced Russia’s legacy Russian Volunteer Society for Assistance to the Army, Aviation, and Navy of Russia (DOSAAF).
- Belarusian President Lukashenko was reportedly hospitalized at a presidential hospital in Minsk on May 13.
- Russian forces continued limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and northwest of Svatove.
- Russian forces made marginal gains within Bakhmut and continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front.
- Russian forces targeted Ukrainian positions in southern Ukraine west of Hulyaipole.
- Russian forces are reportedly replenishing units with mobilized personnel.
- Russian authorities continue efforts to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of “rest and relaxation” schemes.
understandingwar.org/...
In late January, Zelensky urged Ukraine to carry out strikes on Russia and to move Ukrainian troops to occupy "unspecified Russian border cities"
The aim would be to give Ukraine leverage in diplomacy with Russia /2
Zelensky has positioned himself as both a hawk and moderate relative to his advisors
Valery Zaluzhny emphasized the lack of long-range missiles, which caused Zelensky to back drone strikes on Rostov
Zelensky vetoed strikes on Russian targets in Syria in December 2022 /3
Russian Telegram channels and the Wagner Group are warning of the entry of Russia's 1991 borders into the frontlines
These revelations will fuel their contentions, while also undermining Zelensky's official opposition to striking Russia /4
Britain's Storm Shadow delivery hinged on Ukraine not using them against Russian targets, and the US has stalled on ATACMS and F-16s due to fears of cross-border strikes
So Zelensky's private positions on striking Russia could explain these conditions/delays in US deliveries /5
Zelensky's level of outrage with Hungary's Viktor Orban was also revealed
In a mid-February 2023 meeting with Deputy PM Yuliya Svrydenko, Zelensky proposed that Ukraine strike the Druzhba pipeline to cripple Hungary's Russian oil dependence /6
Not mentioned in these leaks was anything about Ukrainian coordination with Russian partisans or infiltration of the Russian military
These actions were potentially key to today's aircraft shoot-downs and the Kremlin UAV strike /END
• • •
Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack in the Bakhmut area amid unconfirmed claims of further marginal Ukrainian gains southwest of the city as of May 13. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces established new positions on the outskirts of Kurdyumivka (14km southwest of Bakhmut) and pushed Russian forces behind the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal in the area.[1] The milblogger also claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced towards Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) from the direction of Predtechyne (16km southwest of Bakhmut). ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these additional Ukrainian gains southwest of Bakhmut or elsewhere in the wider Bakhmut area as of May 13. Ukrainian Eastern Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on May 13 that Ukrainian forces are advancing in unspecified areas of the front, and the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces are currently conducting active operations in the Bakhmut area.[2] Ukrainian Eastern Grouping of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated on May 13 that Ukrainian forces liberated 17.3 square kilometers of territory in the Bakhmut direction over three days of counterattacks.[3] ISW has assessed as of May 13 that the Ukrainian forces have liberated 16.85 square kilometers in the Bakhmut area during recent counterattacks. Russian sources amplified footage purporting to show the aftermath of a recent Ukrainian counterattack on Russian positions near Mayorsk (20km southwest of Bakhmut) and claimed that the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 3rd Brigade of the 1st Army Corps repelled the assaults.[4] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that recent successful limited Ukrainian counterattacks north of Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut) degraded Russian forces’ ability to interdict the O0506 highway between Khromove and Chasiv Yar (13km west of Bakhmut), a significant ground line of communication (GLOC) for Ukrainian forces operating in Bakhmut itself.[5] The milblogger claimed that Russian retreats in response to recent Ukrainian counterattacks have occurred in relatively small areas of the frontline but warned that these “regroupings” could become more significant if Russian forces fail to stabilize the frontline.[6] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on May 12 that talks of tactical Russian withdrawals are nonsense as Russian forces continue to outright abandon positions in unspecified locations.[7]
understandingwar.org/...
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces struck rear Russian areas in Luhansk Oblast with British Storm Shadow cruise missiles on May 12 and 13, prompting heightened Russian anxiety about potential Ukrainian abilities to target Russian logistics. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on May 13 that Ukrainian aircraft struck industrial facilities in occupied Luhansk City with a Storm Shadow cruise missile on May 12.[16] Geolocated footage published on May 13 shows the aftermath of Ukrainian strikes on Yuvileyne (7km west of Luhansk City) on May 13, and Russian sources widely claimed that Ukrainian forces also used Storm Shadow cruise missiles in the subsequent strike.[17] A Russian milblogger claimed that a Storm Shadow cruise missile would have caused more damage, however, and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Internal Ministry claimed that Ukrainian forces used “Hrim-2” missiles to conduct the May 12 strike.[18] United Kingdom Defense Secretary Ben Wallace confirmed on May 12 that the UK is supplying Ukraine with the missiles but did not specify when or even if Ukraine received them.[19] ISW has not observed visual confirmation that Ukrainian forces have used Storm Shadow cruise missiles to strike Russian positions in Ukraine. Russian milbloggers claimed that the strike illustrates that Ukrainian forces may be able to target airfields and rear deployment and logistics centers in areas previously considered to be completely safe.[20] A prominent Russian milblogger compared the alleged use of the cruise missiles to the summer of 2022 when Ukrainian forces began using HIMARS rockets to target Russian logistics in Kherson Oblast and argued that the Russian information space is similarly attempting to downplay the impact that such systems may have.[21]
understandingwar.org/...
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces have made marginal gains within Bakhmut as of May 13. Geolocated footage published on May 13 indicates that Russian forces made marginal advances in northwestern Bakhmut.[36] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on May 12 that Wagner forces advanced up to 400m in Bakhmut and that Ukrainian forces currently control two square kilometers of the city.[37] Prigozhin and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces made further marginal advances in southwest Bakhmut as of May 13, although ISW has not yet seen visual confirmation of these claims.[38] A Russian milblogger claimed that there were also combat clashes near Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut).[39] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations in Bakhmut itself; within 11km northwest of Bakhmut near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Hryhorivka, and Bohdanivka; and within 14km southwest of Bakhmut near Bila Hora and Stupochky.[40]
understandingwar.org/...
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Russian forces targeted Ukrainian positions in southern Ukraine west of Hulyaipole on May 13. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces have significantly intensified unmanned reconnaissance over the past day, launched about 24 drones along the frontline, and shelled Ukrainian positions 88 times.[45] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command also stated that two Russian Su-35 aircraft launched four KAB-500 bombs at the Beryslav raion.[46] A Russian milblogger additionally published footage on May 13 that purportedly shows Ukrainian forces operating in the Dachy area in Kherson Oblast on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.[47]
understandingwar.org/...
In one of the worst days for Russia’s air force since the start of the war in Ukraine, four aircraft were shot down today inside Russia’s borders, including two planes and a pair of helicopters.
All four aircraft went down on Saturday in the Bryansk region of western Russia, near the Ukrainian border. They include a Su-34 fighter-bomber jet, a Su-35 fighter jet and two Mi-8 transport helicopters. They were on their way into Ukraine, in part to carry out bombing raids. Video taken of the planes crashing show the Su-34 on fire as it plummeted to the ground.
[...]
The shoot downs also happened after Ukraine used newly supplied British Storm Shadow missiles for the first time on Friday, May 12. The long-range cruise missiles hit two industrial sites in Russian-controlled eastern Ukraine, in the Luhansk region. Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed that both Ukrainian fighter jets were shot down after firing, and that the missiles hit civilian sites.
taskandpurpose.com/...
"Before the war, the subversive work of the Russian GRU and FSB was very active. They even noticed apartments in the city center - which they were going to seize first of all. The occupiers already had lists of whom they were going to evict: the first circle, the second circle; as well as plans where to make concentration camps - in Brovary, in Vasylkiv - everything was planned for them," said the ex-deputy head of the SBU, Lieutenant General Andriy Kozhemyakin
According to him, the occupiers already had ready lists of Ukrainians to be exterminated. Among them were people's deputies - about 200
Details:
By: Oleg Tymchenko
The occupiers were going to create two concentration camps in the Kyiv region and shoot 200 people's deputies, the ex-deputy head of the SBU....After the capture of Kyiv and the Kyiv region, the Russian occupiers were going to create concentration camps in Brovary and Vasylkiv. They had ready lists of Ukrainians, in particular people's deputies, who were to be destroyed.The ex-deputy head of the SBU, Lieutenant General Andriy Kozhemyakin, told about this, Telegraph reports . Currently, he holds the post of deputy commander of the volunteer formation of the territorial community of Kyiv "Mriya" of the 241st Brigade of Terrodefense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine"Before the war, the subversive work of the Russian GRU and FSB was very active. They even noticed apartments in the city center - which they were going to seize first of all. The occupiers already had lists of whom they were going to evict: the first circle, the second circle; as well as plans where to make concentration camps - in Brovary, in Vasylkiv - they had everything planned," Kozhemyakin said
According to him, the occupiers already had ready lists of Ukrainians to be exterminated. Among them were people's deputies - about 200."At the same time, a hundred people's deputies are, on the contrary, infiltration and re-recruitment. For example, MPs from OPZZ were supposed to help in the destruction of their colleagues. Or become a "storehouse" of candidates for the leadership of some state structures," Kozhemyakin summarized.in March 2022, the aggressor country of the Russian Federation planned to take control not only of the airport in Gostomel in the Kyiv region, but also in Vasylkiv. Thanks to the Ukrainian defenders, the plans of the occupiers failed
https://t.co/wAoaqx3B5Z