We begin today with Steven Shepard of POLITICO and the latest poll numbers from this coming Tuesday’s New Hampshire Republican primary race.
Former President Donald Trump leads former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley by 17 percentage points in the latest New Hampshire tracking data from Suffolk University, The Boston Globe and WBTS, the NBC affiliate in Boston.
In interviews conducted Thursday and Friday, Trump leads Haley, 53 percent to 36 percent, the poll shows.
Since the Iowa caucuses, the race in New Hampshire has remained remarkably stable. In each of the four days the tracking poll has been released, Trump has been at or above 50 percent, and his lead over Haley has ranged between 14 and 17 points.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is in a distant third place, with 7 percent. Another 5 percent prefer another candidate, are undecided or refused to answer.
Moving right along ...
Heather Cox Richardson writes for her “Letters from an American” Substack about the reasons that Number 45 has been sounding off about “debank-ing” as of late.
His statement looks like word salad if you’re not steeped in MAGA world, but there are two stories behind Trump’s torrent of words. The first is that Trump always blurts out whatever is uppermost in his mind, suggesting he is worried by the fact that large banks will no longer lend to him. The Trump Organization’s auditor said during a fraud trial in 2022 that the past 10 years of the company’s financial statements could not be relied on, and Trump was forced to turn to smaller banks, likely on much worse terms. Now the legal case currently underway in Manhattan will likely make that financial problem larger. The judge has already decided that the Trump Organization, Trump, his two older sons, and two employees committed fraud, for which the judge is currently deciding appropriate penalties.
The second story behind his statement, though, is much larger than Trump.
Since 2023, right-wing organizations, backed by Republican state attorneys general, have argued that banks are discriminating against them on religious and political grounds. In March 2023, JPMorgan Chase closed an account opened by the National Committee for Religious Freedom after the organization did not provide information the bank needed to comply with regulatory requirements. Immediately, Republican officials claimed religious discrimination and demanded the bank explain its position on issues important to the right wing. JPMorgan Chase denied discrimination, noting that it serves 50,000 accounts with religious affiliations and saying, “We have never and would never exit a client relationship due to their political or religious affiliation.”
But the attack on banks stuck among MAGA Republicans, especially as other financial platforms like PayPal, Venmo, and GoFundMe have declined to accept business from right-wing figures who spout hate speech, thus cutting off their ability to raise money from their followers.
Kathryn Dunn Tenpas of the Brookings Institution examines the personnel turnover of senior Biden administration officials.
2023 was another challenging year for the president — tepid approval ratings, narrow margins in Congress, calls for impeachment, new and continuing military conflict abroad, and an economy struggling to regain its footing. Despite these challenges, relative stability in White House staffing continued to be a Biden administration hallmark, particularly when compared to the tumult in the Trump administration. In year three, the men and women who work at the most senior levels of the Executive Office of the President (EOP) continued their efforts with less turnover than in 2022, dropping from 35% (23 individuals) in 2022 to 23% (15 individuals) in 2023. Overall, three years of top staff departures stand at 65%, which ranks President Biden fourth among the seven presidents going back to Ronald Reagan and including George H.W. Bush, William Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump. [...]
Though one can only speculate on the causes of the 15 departures, one reason may be the increased (and inevitable) focus on reelection when, some former White House staff members contend, reelection politics trumps policymaking. Ever since President Nixon established an independent reelection organization (CREEP, The Committee for the Reelection of the President), the national party’s role in reelection planning has declined, and the White House has become more involved in campaign planning. Referring to the 1992 reelection campaign, Marlin Fitzwater, President George H.W. Bush’s press secretary, explained, “Within the White House there is less emphasis on issues, fewer decisions coming to the president. The President was distracted by the campaign…lots of travel…Maybe we should’ve abandoned the process of governing earlier. The reality is the White House pretty much comes to a stop.” “Shutting down” governing for the reelection campaign does not necessarily create an inviting climate for those happily immersed in the details of legislation or policy analysis. Also, “burnout” in the White House is real: Many of the 15 departing staff began working grueling hours when they joined the Biden campaign in spring of 2019. In short, some of the senior staff members departing in year three were reaching their fifth year with Team Biden.
Another key segment of senior presidential appointees includes the Cabinet secretaries in the 15 departments that are in the line of presidential succession. Whatever the fluctuations among the “A Team” in the EOP, the Biden Cabinet has experienced record-level stability compared to the six most recent administrations. George Condon of the National Journal recently reported that one had to go back 171 years, to the nation’s 14th president, Franklin Pierce, to find a more stable Cabinet. Only one Biden Cabinet member has departed, Labor Secretary Marty Walsh. (Note that my analysis of turnover relies on a strict definition of “Cabinet,” including only the 15 Cabinet secretaries in the line of presidential succession.)
Melissa Hellman of the Guardian says that the right-wing strategy utilized to force former Harvard President Claudine Gay’s resignation will continue to be used as long as it works.
The strategy behind Gay’s ousting wasn’t new, and has been used to advance conservative agendas, influence school curriculum and demonize Black people throughout history. What was different this time was the quick efficacy of the takedown, which, according to some political scientists, historians and lawyers, emboldened conservative activists and could have dangerous implications for the future of education. [...]
Weeks prior to Gay’s resignation, the rightwing activist Christopher Rufo publicized the plan to remove her from office: “We launched the Claudine Gay plagiarism story from the Right. The next step is to smuggle it into the media apparatus of the Left, legitimizing the narrative to center-left actors who have the power to topple her. Then squeeze.” In an interview with Politico after Gay vacated her post, Rufo described his successful strategy as a three-pronged approach of “narrative, financial and political pressure”.
Alexander Hertel-Fernandez, an associate professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University, noted the effectiveness of the plan, and warned of what it could portend considering that these actors have “seen the impact that they can have when they are able to marshal pressure from the media, donors and others”.
Of course, many on the left have internalized the centuries-long propaganda about Black people. That’s why this method of attack remains so effective.
Mary Mitchell of the Chicago Sun-Times writes about how the decision and desire of seniors to remain in their homes for various reasons are affecting the housing market.
What does aging in place mean?
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention describes it “as the ability to live in one's own home and community safely, independently and comfortably regardless of age, income or ability level.”
According to a 2021 AARP survey, “More than three-quarters of adults 50 and older said they wanted to stay in their homes or communities as they age.”
That means most seniors don't want to move to a retirement community or an assisted-living facility or nursing home.
I'm sure there are plenty of quality facilities in the Chicago metro area aimed at seniors, but I've been in enough bad ones to know that's not where I want to spend my last days. [...]
Seniors’ decisions to not move have affected the housing market, according to Construction Coverage, a company that specializes in researching construction software, insurance and related services.
The headline on an email it sent that landed in my inbox leaped out: “Boomers own 35.6% of Chicago homes amid a housing shortage.”
Katrin Kuntz (with photographs by Dmitrij Leltschuk) of Der Spiegel looks into the efforts of survivors of the Oct. 7 Hamas massacre at the Nova music festival to overcome the trauma.
The Nova festival in the Negev Desert of southern Israel was a popular event for electronic trance music. Around 4,000 people gathered there for several days of partying – just five kilometers from the border to the Gaza Strip. On October 7, around 50 terrorists attacked the party and killed 364 people. Dozens more were abducted and taken back to Gaza. [...]
On October 7, young people once again found themselves the targets of a terror attack – just as they have been in the past. In 2015, the terror organization Islamic State killed 90 people in the Paris concert venue Bataclan, many of them in their thirties. The right-wing extremist Anders Behring Breivik murdered 69 people, most of them teenagers, on the Norwegian island of Utøya in 2017. [...]
Therapists fear that the trauma inflicted on the Nova festivalgoers is likely to be even worse than that caused by previous wars in Israel. One reason is that the survivors are so young, averaging 27 years of age, but also because the attack was so unexpected and because Israel failed to protect them. And because many were high on hallucinogenic drugs at the time. Their experiences have also been magnified by the horrific video clips that can be found on the internet. Some survivors saw themselves in those videos, fighting for survival. In a number of cases, festivalgoers themselves filmed with their mobile phones.
The government is paying for at least 12 hours of therapy for survivors, but not all Nova guests qualify. Experts believe the time allotted to be absurdly inadequate and have also complained about the slow pace of financing. It’s like promising a cancer patient just a single cycle of chemotherapy, says one Israeli scientist.
Sui-Wee Lee of The New York Times previews another of the upcoming elections in 2024, this time in Indonesia.
Prabowo Subianto has spent the past two decades trying his hand at democratic politics, donning different personas in multiple attempts to become Indonesia’s leader.
Now, a month before the next election, nearly every poll shows Mr. Prabowo, 72, leading in the first round of voting. His rise, with the help of a running mate who is the son of the popular departing president, Joko Widodo, has alarmed millions of Indonesians who still remember the brutal and kleptocratic rule of Suharto, Mr. Prabowo’s former boss and father-in-law.
A victory for Mr. Prabowo, his critics warn, would revive a dark past.
“What will happen is the death of democracy,” said Hendardi, the director of the Setara Institute for Democracy and Peace. Like many Indonesians, he goes by one name. “We have long been against Prabowo,” he added, “and with our limited power, we were still able to prevent him from moving forward. But now he has gained this support.”
Finally today, Rafael Clemente of El País in English explains the complexities of landing on the Moon.
Japan’s recent lunar landing, becoming the fifth nation to complete a soft landing after India last August, showcased the challenges of returning to the moon. The moon lacks air, of course, making parachute deployment impossible. Only rocket engines can be used, requiring precise adjustments to achieve a near-zero speed touchdown. Landing on the moon is a complex task that requires radar and laser measurements to monitor altitude and carefully manage fuel consumption. The objective is to avoid premature depletion while ensuring a safe landing without any horizontal displacement. And the delicate onboard instruments must be protected from potential damage upon impact.
The challenge is such that NASA has chosen to delay the Artemis program, pushing back its crewed lunar landing until at least 2026. Uncrewed landers have also met with frequent failure. In the past decade, no privately-funded attempts have succeeded, with only China and India making successful soft landings.
Try to have the best possible day everyone!