Robotyne:
In a not unexpected move, the Russians are moving on Robotyne. A few days ago, they advanced onto ground to the west and south of town that was just high enough before to shield the town from most direct fire from those two directions (Red area). With that ground taken, they could now fire directly on the major road/resupply route into the town for basically its entire length.
Now, Ukraine appears to be withdrawing from the town from the south to north (Pink area). There are several geoconfirmed sightings of Russian troops and armor in the town (Red dots). I expect this withdrawal (if that is what it is) to continue until Russia once more holds the entire town.
Whether Ukraine will attempt to hold position down near Verbove in the eastern part of the pocket, I do not know, but expect Russia to push hard on those positions probably by moving from west to east once Robotyne is secured. Right now, however, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of activity on the eastern side near Verbove (lack of red dots). Putin wants that area back since it represents Ukraine’s only penetration of a main defensive line this past summer (opinion).
Novomykhailivka/Marinka:
Elsewhere, the mystery (to me at least) of Marinka may be solved as Russia appears to be turning south likely making it into an attack on Novomykhailivka’s flank/rear by threatening the town of Kostyantynivka. That isn’t a tiny town and represents a pretty good challenge for the Russians. However, since the roads run to the north side of town, they don’t actually have to take it to essentially cut off Novomykhailivka. After all, mud season will be here soon and the fields probably won’t be very passable. Novomykhailivka is now threatened from both the north and the south following recent advances from both directions. So now, Marinka, Novomykhailivka, and Solodke (in the S) are combined into one decent sized push. Some suggest this is all an attempt to flank Vuhledar further south, which was the scene of other Russian embarrassment months ago.
Avdiivka:
Next, as the dust continues to settle in the Avdiivka direction, Russia has successfully taken Lastochkyne. While I did not expect Ukraine to make a long-term stand there (it’s not a good place to defend), Russia is moving more quickly to consolidate than I expected. Sjeverne, Tonenke, and perhaps even Orlivka do not seem to be great places to defend, either. We’ll see if Russia still has some gas in the tank (tired of that unintentional pun) stream in the engine.
Side Note/Title Photo: In the first confirmed sightings I have seen, the M1 Abrams are engaged in combat in the Avdiivka area.
Krynky:
Finally, there is video from a couple of days ago of Russian soldiers going in, planting a flag in the NE part of town the Ukrainians previously controlled, and running back out. This does not mean the Krynky has fallen. However, they did go in maybe 150 meters, do their deed, and leave again without receiving incoming fire and without making much if any individual evasive moves. That denotes a lack of fear. They did “trot” out for much of the distance, but they slowed to a walk while crossing open ground and roads closer to their wooded destination. From that, I gather there is not much volume of fire from the Ukrainian side.
Ukraine has been compressed out of the NE 1/3 of the portion of the town they previously held and now occupy about ¾ sq km of dry land/town. Expect further news from Krynky within a few days.
Overall:
So far this quarter, Russian advances, while still far from impressive, now almost triple the rate of 4th Qtr last year, mostly due to action in the past three weeks. Republicans can rot in hell.