Every week from now until Election Day, a new poll will enter the political zeitgeist with the promise of inducing either pervasive nausea or temporary refuge, with the former consistently feeling more overwhelming than the latter.
Right on cue, two examples emerged last week. A Bloomberg/Morning Consult swing state poll showed President Joe Biden losing to Donald Trump in seven make-or-break swing states:
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Arizona: -3
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Georgia: -8
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Michigan: -5
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Nevada: -8
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North Carolina: -10
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Pennsylvania: -3
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Wisconsin: -5
The same poll also suggested a criminal conviction could sink Trump, with over half of swing-state voters saying they would decline to vote for him if he were convicted, including 23% of swing-state Republicans.
On the sunny side for Democrats, a Quinnipiac University poll claimed Biden had opened up a 6-point lead on Trump nationally, 50% to 44%. The survey’s big reveal was a widening gender gap, with Biden winning women by 22 points, 58% to 36%, a 10-point uptick since December. Trump's 11-point lead among men was virtually unchanged.
One survey was national and the other centered on battleground states, but any way you slice it, these polls painted very different visions of the electorate.
More than likely, the truth lies somewhere in between, and The Economist published a welcome reminder Sunday that not all polls are created equal. The outlet parsed the 538 aggregate of national polls, dividing them up by pollster ratings between the very good, good, decent, poor, and unranked. Generally speaking, the worse the pollster's ranking, the better Trump performed in the survey.
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Very good (13 polls): Trump +.15
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Good (eight polls): Trump +2.4
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Decent (30 polls): Trump +1.7
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Poor (four polls): Trump +5.3
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Unranked (two polls): Trump +6.5
Last month's Daily Kos/Civiqs co-branded poll found Biden and Trump in a dead heat at 44% each (with 9% choosing someone else, and 2% unsure).
None of this is good news for Trump, unless the unranked polls putting him 6.5 points up are true. Rather Trump is likely hitting a high point right now after winning the first two primary contests, solidifying his front-runner status, and appearing to be on a glide path to the Republican nomination.
What awaits Trump in the coming months, however, is a series of body blows. An imminent decision in the civil fraud case brought by New York State Attorney General Letitia James could cost Trump hundreds of millions in damages and eject his business from the state.
Trump's Republican primary opponent Nikki Haley continues to hammer away at him, calling Trump "unhinged," likening him and President Joe Biden to "Grumpy Old Men," and slamming Trump for praising Chinese President Xi Jinping.
"Praising dictators is not normal. Make America normal again,” Haley said.
Haley's play isn't likely to weaken Trump's grip on the primary, but it almost certainly will provoke intemperate moments from a man who directed a Chernobyl-style meltdown at Haley in the middle of his “victory” speech following the New Hampshire contest.
Team Biden will simultaneously be capitalizing on Trump's penchant for miscues, like calling America “pathetic.”
Seriously though, Team Biden is running a disciplined campaign, outraising Trump, making substantial ad buys, and preparing for the post-convention sprint to Election Day.
For his part, Trump is praying for an indefinite delay in the Jan. 6 criminal trial, hoping to avoid jail time, and reaping the benefits of many Americans continuing to tune out the particulars of the 2024 contest.
But an onslaught of political gravity is heading Trump's way over the next several months. Let's revisit the head-to-head polls closer to the conventions.
Campaign Action