California has many districts that are targets for the Democratic Party to flip. Most of them are districts that Biden won, but not all of them are that way. California’s 3rd district narrowly voted for Trump in 2020, but it was still targeted by the DCCC in 2022. Democrats were hoping to build on the fact that Biden got close to 48% here, but the race fizzled out in the end. That made this district less of an exciting prospect in 2024.
That is, until a candidate familiar to the area got into the race. This candidate ran in the 2018 blue wave election in California’s 4th district (covered much of the same territory), and she has been busy serving the constituents of this district in various roles ever since. Jessica Morse has experience on her side, and a compelling story that she tells in her launch video below:
Make no mistake — this district is still going to be tough to win over, even with an excellent recruit such as Morse. However, the campaign sees a path to victory in a Presidential year through persuasion and higher turnout. The nonpartisan primary has anointed GOP Rep. Kevin Kiley and our challenger. Kiley got 55% in the nonpartisan primary, while Morse got 43%. A lot will have to shift for the upset to happen. Question is, can Jessica Morse pull off the upset and defeat the incumbent?
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Jessica Morse for California-3
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What’s the Big Idea?
THIS RACE IS LIKELY REPUBLICAN, with an R+4 PVI
The Sacramento suburbs have been conservative for a very long time. The 3rd district is very similar to what was the 4th district in previous decades, in that it took in those conservative suburbs, and then it spread out to rural terrain in various directions.
After 2010 redistricting, Rep. Tom McClintock gained a much safer seat in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada combined with Lake Tahoe and those conservative Sacramento suburbs. He went effectively unchallenged in 2012, 2014, and 2016. Jessica Morse ran in 2018 during the blue wave, but she could get no closer than a 54-46 margin. 2020 resulted in nearly the same spread, which means this district is on the periphery of being competitive.
In 2020, Trump won this district by a total of 49.7% to 47.9%, which was the closest Presidential result in a very long time in this area. This is a seat that could be trending towards us, as suburbs across the nation are ditching the Republican Party and becoming more friendly to Democrats. In 2022, redistricting added the spine of the Sierra Nevada, which was enough for Rep. McClintock to bail to the 5th district instead. Kevin Kiley ran instead, and won this district by a 53.6% to 46.4% margin, in line with previous Congressional results. Morse has an uphill climb in this district for sure!
Here's where races are won for us in the 3rd district.
- Lake Tahoe region: This area is the Democratic anchor for the district, even though it doesn’t produce as many votes as the Sacramento suburbs. It is critical that Jessica Morse have an excellent environmental pitch to these voters, as they tend to be conscious of such issues.
- Folsom: This suburb of Sacramento is an exception to the idea that the suburbs included in this district are all conservative. It is important that Morse get as many votes as possible out of this city. Losing it would be nothing short of catastrophic for the campaign.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we will lose.
- Sacramento suburbs: There are some blue and pink precincts in the northern suburbs of Sacramento, but there are also a ton of MAGA voters in this part of the district. Jessica Morse needs to attract new voters to our cause out here to offset the lean of these suburbs. Can she find those votes?
- Plumas, Sierra, and Yuba Counties: There aren’t many votes out in the rural portions of the district, but many of the voters out this far are solidly conservative. Morse needs to fire up the base out here, and then work even harder to convert people in the suburbs to her cause.
Who is Jessica Morse?
Jessica Morse has a family that has been in this area of California ever since the covered wagons started traveling west. She has served her community and country in numerous ways. During the war in Iraq, she worked in national security for the DoD, State Department, and USAID. She volunteered in Paradise, CA after the Camp Fire, and that led to her seeking jobs as the Deputy Secretary for Forest and Wildland Resilience at the California Natural Resources Agency, as well as the U.S. Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission. This website has even more background on Morse.
- Wildfire Crisis. Morse has the resume to make this her signature issue in Congress. She gives solutions to protect homes, use indigenous techniques to better manage forests, and finally to conduct cutting edge research into the best practices for fighting mega fires. It is a long read, but this talk she gave at UC Berkeley demonstrates her knowledge and passion for this issue.
- Abortion Rights Ally. Morse has made it clear in her path to victory that abortion rights will also be a centerpiece of her campaign. She will vote yes on codifying Roe v. Wade, as well as be a vote against a national abortion ban and even a possible contraception ban. Reproductive Freedom for All has endorsed her campaign, as well as Emily’s List.
- Housing Affordability. While light on specifics, Morse wants to make homes in the Sacramento suburbs more affordable for denizens of the district. This area is near the top of the charts for unaffordable housing, and it is next to impossible to get insurance too. This issue is interconnected with the wildfire crisis, because it is that issue feeding this one.
- Defending Democracy. In her path to victory, Morse mentions that ‘she will work every day to defend our democracy and our rights from extremist ideology’. This is another issue which she can contrast herself with the incumbent. No voting rights groups or democracy groups have endorsed her campaign as of writing this article.
- Problem Solver. Her path to victory mentions Morse as ‘a strong defender of Social Security and Medicare, veteran’s health care, childcare, and abortion rights. Her values align with this rapidly changing, moderate district. She will be strong on all of these issues, though she doesn’t go into specifics on what she will do on each one.
- Union Strong. Morse has yet to opine on issues relating to unions in the 2024 campaign. However, SEIU California has endorsed her campaign for Congress, which wouldn’t happen if she demonstrated anti-union tendencies. Hopefully, Morse will be another vote for the PRO Act and other legislation supporting unions.
Who is Rep. Kevin Kiley?
Rep. Kevin Kiley has an undergraduate degree from Harvard, which he parlayed into a gig teaching in Los Angeles through Teach for America. He is known as a debate champion through his time at Loyola Marymount University. He eventually went to Yale Law School and edited the Yale Law Journal. Kiley clerked at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, then returned to the Sacramento area to practice law, including a huge case between T-Mobile and Chinese giant Huawei. Eventually, Kiley ran for a seat in the California Assembly and won in 2016. He tried to run for the California Senate in 2020 and the recall election in 2021, but failed to gain traction both times. He was elected to the 3rd district in 2022.
Kiley participated in C-SPAN’s New Members of Congress series, in which he gives more of his background.
Kiley doesn’t have an issues page on his campaign website, which makes writing this section more difficult. However, his official website has an issues page, and media can fill in the gaps. The AP characterizes Kiley as "a conservative who often flirts with the fringes of the GOP".
- Dismantling Education. Kiley is one of the biggest proponents of charter schools and school choice on Capitol Hill, and this was one of the issues he emphasized in the recall election. He has attacked teachers’ unions as ‘too powerful to the detriment of students’. Kiley is likely to be an architect of educational policies in the House of Representatives for a hypothetical Trump 2nd term, given that he is on that committee.
- Election Denier. Kiley has refused to acknowledge that Biden won the 2020 election. He was panned in an op-ed, “He reminds us of Republican opportunists like Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, Sens. Josh Hawley of Missouri and Tom Cotton of Arkansas, and Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, who benefited from Ivy League educations but have veered far right to pander to Trump supporters when they certainly know better.”
- Forced Birth Maniac. Kiley may have scrubbed abortion from all his issues pages, but he cannot hide his ‘pro-life’ record from the internet. He has rated consistently high on the grading scales of forced birth groups. He said the US Supreme Court decision on the Dobbs case would “change literally nothing” about abortion rights in California, but he also is voting for measures that would lead to a national abortion ban.
- 2nd Amendment Zealot. Kiley is another member of the GOP who has an “A” grade from the NRA. In the California Assembly, he has voted against countless measures to strengthen gun safety laws, including ones that would limit the manufacture of ghost guns, allow individuals to sue firearm manufacturers, and prohibit the purchase of more than one gun per month.
- Debt and Deficit Peacock. Kiley calls for a Balanced Budget Amendment, which would require either sharp increases in taxes or the radical shutdown of government services. He railed against the Inflation Reduction Act and other ‘ out of control spending by the Nancy Pelosi Congress’ despite it actually lowering the deficit. Kiley also voted to strip the IRS of funding, which would have caused the deficit to rise.
- COVID Zaniness. Kiley was one of the politicians most opposed to the measures Gov. Newsom proposed to curb the COVID-19 pandemic. He proposed bills to eliminate COVID-19 vaccine mandates, as well as mask mandates. It was those policies that spurred Kiley to run against Newsom in the 2021 recall election.
How Can You Help?
You don’t have to live in northern California to help out Jessica Morse. There are several ways people can help, with the first way being giving a donation to her campaign. It is likely that the DCCC will see better targets on the Congressional map, leaving Morse out of the Red to Blue program for now. In order to run a GOTV operation and targeted ads, Morse will need the funds. That's where we step in by chipping in!
Jessica Morse raised $356k for the Q4 filing period, which isn’t terrible but it could be better. Rep. Kevin Kiley raised $502k during the same time period, showing he isn’t taking this race for granted. Morse has $628k to spend at the beginning of 2024, while the incumbent Kiley had a huge war chest of $1.91M. Morse likely won’t catch up to Kiley, but we can still make sure she gets what she needs!
If you live in northern California and especially in the Sacramento area, this Congressional district is the most competitive one in your area. Volunteering for this campaign makes a lot of sense! Text banking for funds, canvassing, and updating voter contacts are just some of the many different tasks you could be asked to help with. This campaign is about turning out our voters and persuasion. Help with both things is needed!
A final way to help out the Morse campaign is through social media outreach and by boosting her messaging on various platforms. It’s how candidates build a solid fundraising platform and make sure to get noticed when so many candidates vie with one another for your attention. It’s one of the easiest ways to help out as well!
I was surprised by how many people followed her on what was once Twitter. Jessica Morse has 21.8k followers there, likely due to her previous run in 2018 combined with her work in forestry. She has mainly been doing short videos on issues that are important to the district. Here, she is mourning the loss of life in the huge avalanche in early January.
Morse has a decent following on Facebook as well, with 5.6k followers. There is a LOT more material on Facebook that isn’t on her Twitter page, so it is worth following both to get a complete picture of her social media message. Here, she participates is a fun night with the Placer Action Network!
Help spread the word today by following Jessica Morse and boosting her campaign in the critical realm of social media!
Jessica Morse needs some breaks to fall her way to win this district. While this area is trending to the left (just like suburbs across America), Trump probably will win the district again in 2024. She will have to woo independents and moderate Republicans to her campaign, which means she cannot spout off too many progressive policy planks. It is possible she will be endorsed by the New Dem Action Fund and even the Blue Dog PAC (hasn’t happened yet).
Rep. Kevin Kiley has a simpler task of running even with Trump in this district. According to Daily Kos, he is the 29th most vulnerable Republican, which shows that he has quite a few advantages over the challenger Morse. He may be out of step with the district, but it is up to the Morse campaign to inform the electorate of that fact. He has been representing some of this area since 2016, and the task of unseating him looks even more daunting. Yet 2024 is likely the best chance at beating him before he gets too entrenched. Question is, can Jessica Morse pull off the upset?
Jessica Morse for California-3
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Here is the Defeat the MAGA Dozen Fund on ActBlue! These 12 incumbent members of the GOP are MAGA Republicans residing in swing districts. The challengers are all strong and can win in these tougher districts. Please donate and then share a link to this site on your social media! #MAGADozen