While both parties' presidential primaries have now been decided, the downballot primary season is just getting underway, with plenty to watch in two big Midwestern states. The main event is Ohio's volatile Republican primary to take on Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. Both Donald Trump and Senate Democrats want the same candidate to advance—albeit for very different reasons. However, it's far from the only major contest on tap in the Buckeye State or in Illinois.
Below you'll find our guide to the key primaries to watch in both states. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.
To help you follow along, you can find interactive maps from Dave's Redistricting App for both Illinois and Ohio. You can find Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results for each congressional district here, as well as our geographic descriptions for each seat. You’ll also want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states.
We'll be liveblogging all of these races at Daily Kos Elections on Tuesday night, starting when the first polls close at 7:30 PM ET. Join us for our complete coverage!
Ohio
Polls close at 7:30 PM ET.
• OH-Sen (R) (53-45 Trump): Republicans have a nasty and chaotic three-way primary to take on one of the most vulnerable Democratic senators in the country, Sherrod Brown. The main candidates entering the stretch run are a pair of self-funders, businessman Bernie Moreno and state Sen. Matt Dolan, while a third alternative, Secretary of State Frank LaRose, has faded.
Moreno has support from Donald Trump, Sen. J.D. Vance, far-right Rep. Jim Jordan, and the radical anti-tax Club for Growth. But Dolan, a Cleveland Guardians co-owner who has condemned the Big Lie, picked up an endorsement in the final week of the campaign from Gov. Mike DeWine. LaRose, meanwhile, has largely depended on a super PAC funded by conservative megadonor Richard Uihlein to get his message out, but the group appears to have scaled back its advertising during the final days of the race.
Moreno immediately became the front-runner after he picked up Trump's endorsement in December, but recent polls show him locked in a tight race against Dolan, who took a close third against Vance in the 2022 primary for Ohio's other U.S. Senate seat. Democrats launched a late multimillion-dollar effort to meddle in the primary to boost Moreno, whom they view as the weakest potential opponent for Brown.
Things took another turn less than a week before Election Day, though, when the Associated Press reported that an online profile seeking "Men for 1-on-1 sex" was created with Moreno's work email in 2008. In a statement released by the campaign, a former Moreno intern said he'd made the account as a prank, and Trump quickly reaffirmed his support for the candidate.
• OH-02 (R) (72-27 Trump): Rep. Brad Wenstrup unexpectedly announced his retirement in mid-November, leading to a pileup of 11 fellow Republicans who are now campaigning to replace him in this conservative southern Ohio district. There is no obvious front-runner in this packed field, where all the major candidates are promoting themselves as hard-liners.
The only current elected officials in the contest are a pair of state senators, Niraj Antani and Shane Wilkin, though they each face a key disadvantage. Antani, while well-funded, represents a constituency in the Dayton suburbs that's located far from the 2nd District. He's nonetheless tried to get his name out with attention-grabbing spots, including one in which he wields a flamethrower.
Wilkin has the opposite issue: Though he already represents about 40% of Wenstrup's constituency, he's struggled to bring in money. However, he does have the backing of the influential anti-abortion group Ohio Right to Life.
The race additionally includes a trio of businessmen, Larry Kidd, Tim O'Hara, and Dave Taylor, who have each self-funded over $1 million. Also in the running is former Hamilton County Commissioner Phil Heimlich, who is campaigning as an anti-Trump Republican. But while Heimlich, who is the son of physician and inventor Henry Heimlich (yep, the Heimlich you're thinking of), has received over $240,000 in support from a super PAC called Buckeyes for Values, he's brought in relatively little money himself.
Another five candidates are on the ballot, and while they've also struggled to keep pace financially, it's possible one could pull off a surprise in an election this crowded.
• OH-06 (R) (64-35 Trump): GOP Rep. Bill Johnson resigned from this deep-red eastern Ohio constituency in January to become president of Youngstown State University, and the same three Republicans are competing in two different primaries on Tuesday. One contest will determine the party's nominee for the June 11 special election for the remainder of Johnson's term, while the other is for a full term in the next Congress.
The field consists of two state legislators, state Sen. Michael Rulli and state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus, plus a chiropractor named Rick Tsai, who has raised little. Stoltzfus launched a transphobic ad during the final days of the race targeting Rulli, who has expressed support for LGBTQ+ rights. Rulli's backers at Defending Main Street, which supports candidates friendly to the GOP leadership, responded with a spot defending his credentials as a social conservative.
• OH-09 (R) (51-48 Trump): Republicans have a volatile race to take on 21-term Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur in a northwestern Ohio seat the GOP gerrymandered after the last census. Party leaders spent months fretting that J.R. Majewski, a QAnon ally who lost to Kaptur 57-43 last cycle, would be their nominee again, but he formally withdrew from the race weeks before Election Day. Majewski will remain on the ballot, but votes cast for him will not count.
Majewski's late departure has turned the primary into essentially a duel between two candidates who each experienced some major disappointments last year, former state Rep. Craig Riedel and state Rep. Derek Merrin. Former Napoleon Mayor Steve Lankenau is also running, but he's attracted little money or attention.
Riedel, who lost the 2022 primary to Majewski in a massive upset, seemed to be the front-runner this time until he called for the party to move "in a different direction" from Trump in December. Speaker Mike Johnson and other Republicans desperate to block Majewski quickly recruited state Rep. Derek Merrin, who unexpectedly lost his 2023 bid to lead the state House due to internal GOP fractures.
Merrin's late start put him at a serious cash disadvantage against Riedel, but Johnson's allies at the deep-pocketed Congressional Leadership Fund have spent over $750,000 to boost their man. Riedel, who has Ohio Right to Life's backing, has also been airing ads tying Merrin to convicted former state House Speaker Larry Householder. Merrin, however, still earned Trump’s endorsement one day before the primary.
• OH-13 (R) (51-48 Biden): Three Republicans are challenging freshman Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes in a competitive seat based in the Akron and Canton areas. Hudson City Councilman Chris Banweg has the backing of Sen. J.D. Vance, while former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin is campaigning to return to office for the first time in over a decade and is self-funding much of his effort. The third contender, perennial candidate Richard Morckel, has brought in little cash. There's been no outside spending of note.
• OH State House (R): GOP state House Speaker Jason Stephens won his job in early 2023 with the support of the Democratic minority, even though the majority of the GOP caucus favored a more conservative option, state Rep. Derek Merrin. Stephens is hoping to keep his job next year by helping his allies win crucial Republican primaries, and he's using his control of the party's deep-pocketed campaign arm, the Ohio House Republican Alliance, to do so.
The termed-out Merrin, who is running for Congress, will not directly benefit no matter how things turn out for Stephens' side. But state Senate President Matt Huffman, who is termed out of the upper chamber and is now running for the state House, is trying to boost his own slate of candidates as he prepares to challenge Stephens for the speakership in 2025.
• OH Supreme Court (D) (53-45 Trump): Republicans hold a 4-3 majority in the Ohio Supreme Court, so for Democrats to flip control, they need to sweep the three seats that are on the ballot this year, including one held by the GOP. All the justices are elected statewide, and the only contested primary on either side is the Democratic contest for an open seat between two members of the state Court of Appeals.
Lisa Forbes is running on a slate with incumbent Justices Melody Stewart and Michael Donnelly that the state Democratic Party announced in November, while Terri Jamison, who lost to Republican Justice Pat Fischer 57-43 in 2022, launched a second bid at the December filing deadline.
Whoever secures the nomination will face Franklin County Judge Dan Hawkins, who has the Republican primary to himself. The ultimate winner, though, will only serve for two years. That's because Republican Justice Joe Deters, who was appointed to fill a vacancy following the 2022 elections, opted to run against Stewart for a full six-year term rather than campaign for the remaining two years in his term.
• Cuyahoga County Prosecutor (D) (66-32 Biden): Cuyahoga County Prosecutor Michael O'Malley faces a challenge from the left in the form of law professor Matthew Ahn in a race where capital punishment has emerged as a major issue. O'Malley, who was elected in 2016 as the top prosecutor for Cleveland and many of its suburbs, spent years as an ardent supporter of the death penalty. He's since said his position has "evolved" while in office, but critics note that he's still used the threat of execution in plea negotiations.
Ahn, who has pledged not to seek the death penalty, has also faulted other aspects of O'Malley's record. "An office that doesn't take wrongful convictions seriously is not an office that's built for justice," he told Bolts. The Democratic nominee will be favored in November against Republican Anthony Alto.
Illinois
Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time.
• IL-04 (D) (72-26 Biden): Democratic Rep. Chuy Garcia faces a primary challenge from the right from Chicago Alderman Raymond Lopez, who is close to the local police union. Lopez, however, has lived up to his reputation for being a poor fundraiser and used one of his many Fox News appearances to decry that the party is "lurching too far to the left."
• IL-07 (D) (86-13 Biden): Democratic Rep. Danny Davis surprised many Chicago politicos by running for a 15th term this cycle, yet with four opponents campaigning against him, it may be hard for anyone to stop the 82-year-old from winning the plurality he needs to secure renomination. Davis' foes have largely focused on his effectiveness in office rather than ideological differences, while prominent Illinois Democrats like Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Mayor Brandon Johnson have stuck with the incumbent.
Davis' most familiar opponent is gun-safety activist Kina Collins, who held him to a 52-46 victory in their 2022 primary. However, the progressive outside groups that spent on Collins' behalf two years ago have remained on the sidelines this time, while the hawkish pro-Israel organization AIPAC has deployed about $500,000 to defeat her. And while Collins benefited from a fundraising concert headlined by The Strokes late in the race, she's otherwise struggled to bring in cash.
The leading fundraiser, however, has not been Davis but rather Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin, who had planned to run to succeed the congressman when it looked like he would retire. However, Conyears-Ervin has dealt with unfavorable headlines thanks to a report by the city's Board of Ethics that determined there was "probable cause" that she committed ethics violations by firing two aides who accused her of abusing her powers.
The field also includes Nikhil Bhatia, a teacher who holds an elected post as a member of a local school council, and Kouri Marshall, a former aide to Gov. J.B. Pritzker.
• IL-11 (D) (57-41 Biden): Democratic Rep. Bill Foster's only opponent for renomination in this seat, which contains the southwestern outer suburbs of Chicago and exurbs, is civil rights attorney Qasim Rashid. Rashid, who unsuccessfully ran for office in Virginia in 2019 and 2020, has raised a notable sum for his campaign against Foster, whom he's accused of being too close to special interests.
The incumbent, however, still enjoys a wide fundraising advantage and support from prominent Democratic politicians and groups. But Foster's detractors are hoping that his modest 59-41 win in the 2020 primary for the last version of this seat indicates that he's still vulnerable.
• IL-12 (R) (71-28 Trump): Republican Rep. Mike Bost is trying to fend off a primary challenge from former state Sen. Darren Bailey, who was the party's 2022 nominee against Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker, in a dark red seat that covers southern Illinois and the southeastern St. Louis exurbs.
Bost, though, appears to be in a strong position to fend off Bailey, a fellow far-right politician who has portrayed himself as an outsider. The incumbent has enjoyed a huge financial advantage throughout the race, and he picked up Trump's endorsement a month ahead of Election Day. Still, an early March poll from the GOP firm M3 Strategies showed Bost up only 45-39.
• Cook County State's Attorney (D) (74-24 Biden): After incumbent Kim Foxx opted against seeking a third term as the top prosecutor for America's second-most populous county, two fellow Chicago-area Democrats emerged in a battle to replace one of the nation's most prominent criminal justice reformers.
In one corner is attorney Clayton Harris, who has the backing of the Cook County Democratic Party and Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle. Harris has also spoken positively of the incumbent's record, and Foxx backed him in the final days of the race.
The other candidate is former Illinois Appellate Court Justice Eileen O'Neill Burke, who, with the support of prominent Republican donors, has raised more than twice as much money as Harris. Burke has also set herself apart by arguing that Foxx has mismanaged her office and made the public less safe. The winner will be favored in the general election against Republican Bob Fioretti, a former Chicago alderman who has turned into a perennial candidate.
California
Polls close at 11 PM ET / 8 PM local time.
• CA-20 (special) (61-36 Trump): It's déjà vu in California's Central Valley as voters go back to the polls in a special election for the final months of former GOP Rep. Kevin McCarthy just two weeks after they took part in the state's regular top-two primary. Unless one candidate wins a majority of the vote, the two contenders with the most votes, regardless of party, will advance to a May 21 general election.
Republican Assemblyman Vince Fong, who has Trump and McCarthy's support, took first on March 5, with 41%, while GOP Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux outpaced Democrat Marisa Wood, 25-21, for the second spot in the general election. These three candidates are once again competing on Tuesday, as are six others.
The field isn't exactly the same as it was two weeks ago, though. Some minor candidates filed to compete in only one election or the other. It'll be challenging for Fong to clear the 50% mark in the special, though, as the five candidates who chose to run in both races combined for more than 92% of the vote in the primary.
This story has been updated to reflect Donald Trump’s endorsement of Derek Merrin in Ohio’s 9th Congressional District.
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