Today’s Financial Times’ Election Countdown had an interesting write-up about the presidential race comparing Biden and Trump’s latest fundraising figures, with some nice graphics.
Biden raised almost twice as much as Trump from January to the end of March, bringing in almost $166mn compared with roughly $90mn for pro-Trump groups, according to an FT analysis of federal campaign data [free to read].
You probably already know this. What i thought was particularly interesting, given the current political environment, was that “Trump has 270,000 fewer unique donors than he did at the same stage of his 2020 White House run.” The Trump campaign has reported 900,000 unique donors up to the end of the first quarter of 2024. In comparison, the Biden campaign has reported 1.3 million unique donors — exceeding the 1.17 million unique donors Trump reported from the 2020 election cycle (up to this point).
Small donors, defined as those giving $200 or less, have been critical to Trump’s previous campaigns. Ever since Barack Obama, political analysts have used that as a measure of relative campaign strength before votes were cast.
The Financial Times analysis of federal campaign data “raise new questions about how the former president’s shrunken base will sustain him through costly court cases and what is expected to be the most expensive presidential race ever.”
These warnings have been bubbling to the surface for awhile (some think it was a factor behind Trump’s recent Mar-a-Lago major donor funder). But they have been clear: “The drop in Trump’s small-dollar contributors could be significant obstacle as the former president faces the well-funded incumbent president, Democrat Joe Biden.”
Donald Trump’s reelection campaign has begun to see warning signs that the small-dollar donors who fueled his last run for the White House have slowed their support to the former president this year, according to people familiar with the matter.
Since late last year, members of Trump’s team have been warned by Republican Party advisors that their small-dollar donor base could be shrinking, said the sources, who were granted anonymity to discuss internal campaign matters.
One factor nobody disputes is that small-dollar donors are critical to Trump’s ability to raise enough money to fund his presidential campaign.
Rufus Gifford, the Biden campaign’s finance chair, stated the obvious:
Every single dime that we raise right now is going to talk to voters, whether that is on TV in ads, whether that is online in ads, whether that is opening offices. Our opponents are spending tens of millions of dollars on legal fees. This is a huge, huge, huge advantage that we do have, and we are excited about that.
[...]
Biden clearly eclipsed Obama in another measure. While Obama reported nearly 350,000 donors in February of 2012, the Biden campaign claimed 469,000 unique donors at the same point in the current cycle.
There have been lots of questions about whether or not Democrats are enthusiastic about this election. These questions abound even though Gallup has found similar levels in Democratic enthusiasm this year as Republicans. But comparisons of unique donors are measures of which side is willing to “put their money where their mouth is.”
“In 2023, Trump’s reelection campaign raised 62.5% less money from small-dollar donors than it did in 2019, the year before the last presidential election.” Of course, Trump was “president” in 2019, but MAGA supporters have been trying to argue that they are more motivated, more committed this time than last time (hard as that is to believe). Still, Republicans are lagging behind.
“During his failed 2020 reelection campaign, the $378 million he [Trump] raised from small-dollar contributions represented almost half of the total cash.”
The Trump campaign has reacted to its drop in small-dollar donations by inventing a NIL (name-image-likeness) Tax on Republican candidates who fund-raise off it.
Mr. Trump has for years feuded with Republican candidates and institutions who have solicited donations using Mr. Trump’s likeness without his approval. Weeks after leaving office, when many in the Republican establishment were seeking to distance themselves from the former president after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, Mr. Trump sent cease and desist letters to the party asking it to stop using his name and likeness. Many Republicans ignored him and continued to profit from his image.
Trump remains the gift that just keeps on giving. Many, if not most, Republican candidates running in competitive races this year have used his imprimatur as signals to the MAGA grassroots. If Trump wants to take money away from GOP candidates to pay his lawyers, i won’t object!
Trump’s apparent struggles with small-dollar doors could be a result of donors not engaging as much with his often outrageous fund-raising pitches or an indicator of donor fatigue. Regardless of the reasons why, if this trend continues Trump’s campaign will be seriously struggling for money. Large dollar donations could mean that donors are prohibited from supporting (financially) his campaign in the final months of the campaign.
President Biden‘s campaign continues to have an enormous cash advantage over Donald Trump’s presidential campaign with nearly six months until the election. And that advantage is primarily due to grassroots’ support for Biden’s re-election.
Well done...