Looks like Trumpty Trump could be in trouble. According to this Raw Story article:
Two Republican operatives privately told NBC News Trump and the Republican National Committee have fewer than five staff members between them in Pennsylvania and Michigan. And Trump reportedly can't afford to expand the campaign's staff to full capacity in some places, like Pennsylvania, until the summer.
I don’t pretend to know how much that ground game helps because I have never run a national, let alone even a statewide campaign, but everything I hear from people who know about this stuff says that a ground game is extremely important in GOTV efforts.
I have been very critical of the Florida Democratic party because, according to people who live there (I am in PA myself), the state Democratic party in Florida is directly responsible for the Democrats' miserable showing over the last few cycles. This means that I believe, without direct evidence of my own mind you, that state-level operations do matter.
If I am correct in that assumption, then 5 staff members across two abso-fucking-lutely must-win states for Trump can’t be a good thing at all…. well, for him at least, I suspect that is a very good thing for… you know… democracy… the future of our planet… Europe… America…. it’s the small things in life that matter, the small things.
To juxtapose that reporting, Raw Story says:
Biden's campaign told NBC News that money went into a hiring spree that brought in 300 paid staffers across nine states and 100 offices in key swing states.
That’s a pretty big difference. A (I assume) Trump staffer had to say this:
One staffer raised serious concerns and made a blunt comparison between the two campaigns.
“This is like comparing a Maserati to a Honda — 2020 had staff and the bodies in place to turn out the vote,” one of those staffers said. “This current iteration is starting from ground zero, and we’re seven months out from the election. It makes no sense and puts them at a huge disadvantage to Biden, who is staffing up in droves.”
Let’s repeat this again my children….
Everything…
…… Trump …..
……… Touches ….…
…………… Dies……………
It appears this might be the case for his own re-election campaign. His incompetence coupled with his greed, leading to his legal troubles is causing his base to collapse.
Yeah I know I know… but the polls, the POLLS I can hear you scream. Fuck the polls, people vote with the pocket books and they don't give money to political candidates they feel are going to lose.
But wait you say, Trump’s campaign says:
"Trump's fundraising has been picking up, potentially helping him mount a more competitive ground game if he chooses," the report noted. "His campaign and the RNC said last week they raised more than $65.6 million in March and ended the month with more than $93.1 million on hand."
Just remember, Biden already had $70 million MORE than Trump did in February, and that’s after Biden spending on advertising and Trump just paying his legal fees. And this $93.1 million talked about above includes the Trump campaign along with the RNC combined if I am reading that correctly.
Trump is seriously behind the 8 ball when it comes to funding. And it’s not going to get a lot better when his people think all his money is going to his legal fees. And things get even uglier if and when we see a jury come back with a guilty verdict in NY over the next few months.
Yeah, I can hear you now “but his rubs will follow him off a cliff if Dear Leader askes them to.” This is only partly right, they might bluster about their “unconditional support” for Trump, but that unconditional support smokescreen evaporates pretty quickly when the reality of choosing to pay your bills vs. supporting someone else’s legal fees hits you in the face and you are already pretty sure that candidate is probably going to lose.
That is exactly what we are seeing now with his fundraising numbers, his small dollar donations are just not there like they were in 2016 and 2020.
So yeah, Trump might get some funding from big dollar *cough cough* foreign *cough cough* contributors but don’t be fooled. Just because he has more money doesn't mean his voters are more engaged, I believe a lot more of them have checked out than we might imagine.
I suspect Trump’s small-dollar fundraising is going to improve a bit as we get closer to the election, but he is WAY behind his small-dollar donation numbers from previous cycles, AND they aren’t going to improve as much as he is going to need…. AND more importantly, it’s already starting to be too late to get a ground game in place now, if he does score a big chunk of donations in the next month or two it might not help with that ground game.
I think the only saving grace for Trump here is that maybe with his name recognition and batshit crazy supporters, he doesn’t need a ground game to GOTV? I am a little skeptical about that because he needs MORE votes than he got in 2020 and I think that GOTV effort is critical to getting reluctant voters to turn out for him.
I could be wrong on all the above, but I can say for a fact, Trump is in a much worse position now than he was in 2016 and 2020 when it comes to his overall campaign direction, strategy, funding and boots on the ground.
As they say, if I had to pick I would MUCH rather be the Biden campaign than the Trump campaign at this point in the race, polling be damned.
