Big state, nice weather means big turnout. Now we didn’t expect that this week. Lots of rain leading up to Saturday. But we try to, no matter what, have at least 500 pieces of turf ready to go by the Friday before. The question, then, isn’t whether we cut enough turf, the question is, did we cut enough turf for where volunteers show up.
We ask volunteers to confirm that they are coming. But, let’s face it, that’s not a great way to ”schedule” volunteers because even if they confirm, that doesn’t mean they always come. I, myself, have been known to confirm i was coming and then get diverted. So even though we thought we were prepared for Saturday in Texas, we had to do some emergency cutting of turf because there were two locations where there wasn’t enough. These are good problems to have. But, remember, all our people are volunteers, even organizers, right now — it’s a true grassroots effort, even if most of our organizers have real campaign staff experience. So when we say seat of the pants organization, that’s exactly what it is.
We highlight Texas again because it was the state that had the third highest volunteer turnout last Saturday. We have targeted Texas because of the Senate race; you will note that Texas is classified as leaning Republican in both the Senate race and the Electoral College, but most people would argue that Texas is unlikely to elect a Democrat in either. And it won’t be a swing state until it is. Who expected Georgia or Arizona to be a swing state last time? Some of us are even old enough to remember 2000, when the Gore campaign pulled its campaign out of Tennessee to focus on Florida (very few remember that he probably would have won Tennessee had he not done so). It’s not exactly a science.
But it is easy for Hope Springs from Field PAC [website] volunteers because we are just the first wave of canvassers, not the last wave. So arguing that “y’all should come back to Texas” doesn’t alter the campaign volunteer landscape in any other state. So, i repeat, we aren’t in Texas because Ted Cruz can be beaten, we are in Texas because we have no idea if Ted Cruz can be beaten. And the thing about Texas, the THING ABOUT TEXAS — the reason that it remains some kind of holy grail for Democratic activists — is that Texas is a state where registered voters don’t vote. It’s not just a matter of expanding the electorate — which Democrats should always try to do at this level of elective office — it is still very much a matter training Democratic voters to be more consistent about turning up to vote, every year, every election, AND a matter of convincing Democrats to actually run for office, contest every race, present a more diverse and representative ballot that voters will actually want to come out and vote.
And here’s the thing: the old Democratic guard isn’t that likely to do that. It’s hard to change institutions. Tom DeLay battled to change the Texas GOP and Texas Democrats are in the same position. We have to expand the base, not just expand the electorate. It’s not just a money problem (big states like Texas, Florida and California are super expensive because they have multiple major media markets).
I say this not because i have a dog in this fight, because i don’t. But i recognize that the Texas grassroots has to get into the fight because, quite frankly, i believe that they are the only ones who can save Texas, if Texas can be saved.
I am going to repeat myself: we misidentify Texas as a red state because the Texas GOP has been successful in turning out their voters since the 1990s. But Texas is repeatedly at the bottom of the 50 (51, including D.C.) states year in and year out. In 2020, Texas was 51st, dead last [pdf]. From 2004 to 2016, it was 50th, with only Hawaii having lower turnout percentage wise.
In 1994, when just 8.6 million Texans were registered to vote, nearly 51% of registered voters participated in the midterm...
Incidentally, 1994 was the last year a Democrat won statewide office.
So when Texans ask for help here, they are making that plea with historical data to back them up: Democrats won when turnout was normal; Democrats have lost when the turnout in Texas was suppressed. It’s a valid point. But i want to be crystal clear here: devoting outside resources to Texas is not the answer. It is one piece of the puzzle; getting the Texas grassroots more engaged in that goal is another, equally important piece.
Still, Texas (and Florida, for that matter) are big reaches. I have spent time in Texas because that’s where my wife’s family hails from. And i have lots of opinions, some good, some bad. But it’s not my opinion that matters. What matters is that the Hope Springs from Field volunteers we mobilized in 2021 felt abandoned. Especially after the reception we got that Summer, walking with the staffs of the Democratic state house delegation that fled the state in order to prevent more laws to suppress the vote.
We are canvassing in Texas because of the Senate race. (So far afaik) All of our volunteers here were veterans from our canvasses in Texas in 2021 and many of them had specifically asked that Hope Springs return this year..
But there’s more to it, and i am repeating myself here. Since Hope Springs has evolved into a grassroots-driven political committee, we’ve planned to create state satellite groups as state political committees after the November election. As a federal committee, a designation that we choose because (while it hurts fund-raising) it allows us to get poll watchers’ credentials. It’s a trade-off.
But the takeaway is that we are looking for — and finding — people who will step up to keep this thing going. It’s easy to say, sure, we can return to Texas (it’s easier than starting from scratch, like we did in Ohio!), but volunteers have to respond. And they have.
468 volunteers came out to knock on doors in the Houston area, the Dallas suburbs and parts of TX-15 on Saturday. They knocked on 34,023 doors and talked to 3,021 voters. 1,894 voters answered questions from at least part of the Issues Survey.
The Economy was the Number 1 issue for the Texans we talked to on Saturday. Housing and Insurance Issues (ie, Rent, Single Home Availability and affordability of both Housing and Insurance) were the #2 issue voters raised. Border Security was third.
Among the Texans we talked to, Biden’s Job Approval was at 49%; 8% expressed some measure of Disapproval. 17% of the voters who responded Approved of the job Sen. Cruz was doing while 38% expressed Disapproval.
It is important to remember that we are knocking on the doors of Democrats and unaffiliated voters. We also ask about whether voters Approve of the Democratic Senate nominee Colin Allred. This week, 43% of the voters we talked to had a positive impression of the Congressman, a significant drop off from the week before. 12% approved of the job Gov. Abbott was doing; 41% disapproved.
Hope Springs from Field PAC began knocking on doors again on March 2nd in a grassroots-led effort to prepare the Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are taking those efforts to the doors of Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024
Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
We registered 22 new voters and re-registered 41 voters who updated their addresses for the voter file. We differentiate between the new voters and re-registering voters because brand new voters are often ignored by campaigns and we hope to compensate for that somewhat by having volunteers send them post cards before the election and they will also receive robocalls thanking them for registering.
156 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
3 voters in Texas completed an Incident Reports. 4 other voters expressed concerns about the 2024 elections but did not fill out incident reports because they didn’t say they witnessed voter suppression or intimidation (they just expressed concerns or worries about them). Incident Reports are used to plan Election Protection activities, and will be combined with other, historical incidents and handed over to District and State Attorneys, Attorney Generals and the DoJ Civil Rights Division right before Election Day as a precaution against Election Day Incidents in November. Past polling place activity is a predictor of future voter intimidation or suppression activity.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.
But the main focus of our canvassing is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with some really, really onerous new voter regulations, Hope Springs from Field seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them.
We are also — this being an election year — adding the Post Cards to New Voters component back into our Voter Outreach, both New Voters we find at their doors as well as New Voters we target in the Voter File. Several of our Arizona organizers are also talking to Native American groups about replicating our Voter Matching service that Hope Springs provides for Black Churches. This is really dependent upon the Native American tribes, though. It’s a big year. There’s lots to be done, and, hopefully, we won’t have to suspect in-person voter contact because of a heatwave this year.
Our biggest expense is the Voter File. But it is also a fixed cost. That won’t change as we raise and spend more money. Printing literature is our second largest cost. Printing and mailing our our Post Cards to New Voters is our third cost and paying the fees for ActBlue is the smallest of our monthly costs.
Hope Springs is a seat-of-the-pants grassroots-driven operation. We don’t have employees but we realize that to formalize and professionalize this effort that will have to change.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024
If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!