To predict how the presidential election will come out, pollsters need to determine who is likely to vote. They aren’t even close. The much-discussed Times/Siena Poll is only reporting on Registered Voters. Many people are registered to vote and seldom do. So, looking at supposed opinions of Registered Voters is essentially looking at nothing.
With more candor than most pollsters, Data for Progress attempted to show how much the abortion issue is affecting polls in Arizona. “The presence of an abortion measure on the ballot shifts vote likelihood in Democrats’ favor: After learning of the measure, Democrats were slightly more likely to say they were going to vote (+2%) with no corresponding bump in interest among Republicans, who were less likely to say they were going to vote (-7%) — resulting in a cumulative 9% impact on vote likelihood in Democrats' favor.”
A nine-point swing in a close election is, as they say, huge.
Times/Siena is only reporting Registered Voters in the presidential race. But they apparently have a Likely Voter model, perhaps hidden in a locked drawer. They report Rep. Ruben Gallego leading Kari Lake by 3 percentage points among Likely Voters in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race.
It’s hard to understand how they were able to determine who the Likely Voters are when polling for the Senate, but didn’t factor that information into their presidential poll.
In fairness to pollsters, abortion is a monster issue that is destroying much of what they know about forecasting elections. It couldn’t be bigger news in Arizona, making the state’s major newspaper on most days.
First, of course, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned 50 years of precedent in throwing out the protections of Roe v. Wade. Women who had spent nearly their entire adult lives feeling some of their bodily autonomy rights were protected, found they were suddenly under the rule of state legislators. In getting to know the people who fill state capital buildings, they realized that they were crackpots, extremists, dimwits, hateful and not interested in women’s rights or good government. Arizona’s top court decided the thing to do was to revert to an 1864 Territorial law written 60 years before women could vote.
Then the Legislature decided to repeal the 1864 law, replacing it with a law that is less harsh, but still very anti-abortion. In making the about face, the lawmakers did not have enough votes to attach the “emergency clause” to their bill. So, the law stays in effect until 90 days after the legislative session ends. But the lawmakers have shown no inclination to stop talking and go home.
Meanwhile, the state Supreme Court weighed in again with its own 90-day rule, blocking the enforcement of the Territorial law. Arizonans are left trying to figure out how much sooner the court’s 90 days will expire before the 90 days following the legislative session ends. Somebody should create an app.
And this is all about which bad abortion bill the state gets. But that will likely change once again in December, when a citizens Initiative will restore women’s rights in Arizona. It will be voted on in November. Then the votes will be counted and the governor will issue a proclamation stating the Initiative is now law.
The sponsors of the Initiative already have enough signatures to get the measure on the ballot, and people are continuing to get signatures every day. At this point it’s more about lining up votes than getting signatures.
U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake, deeply unloved by Democrats and Republicans, is changing her position on abortion frequently. She seems to strongly favor the position of the last person she talked to. The fact that she stabbed the state party in the back by using secret tape recordings to dethrone the state GOP chair hasn’t helped her image.
The fact that Republicans have little money and no campaign on the ground will probably also keep their voters away from polls. Arizona is definitely a state where the election will be decided by a “field margin,” a few percentage points that can be made up by hard work.
Our people are working hard on the Reservations, where in the last two elections Native Americans supplied Democrats a winning margin. If you would like to help, secure.actblue.com/...
In Arizona and several other states, abortion will actually be on the ballot. But with Republicans advocating a national anti-choice law, it really is on the ballot everywhere.
One bonus fact for people who have read this far: At a town hall yesterday, Rep. Eli Crane, R-Ariz., said that the Republican party is weak and focused on managing the decline of America. A strange message to try to rally Republican voters.