In 1960, John F. Kennedy defeated Richard M. Nixon in a close race to win the presidency. Nixon appeared to be done. However, eight years later, Nixon improbably came back to take the presidency in 1968?
So when I think of Al Gore's future, well I think of Nixon. Gore came oh-so close in 2000, and we have an open presidential race in 2008. Sound familiar?
However, it doesn't look like it's going to happen. Gore has shown no interest in 2008; he may have already made a formal announcement that he will not run that I am not aware of. He is currently working on a new television channel targeted at young people. If he is running in 2008, he's sure doing a damn good job of hiding it.
Still, I figured it would be interesting to evaluate the pros and cons of a Gore run in 2008
Pros:
1. Gore was Vice-President. He would be the highest ranking official to run for President in the 2008 Democratic Primary.
2. Gore won the popular vote in 2000, and would already be president if not for Bush v. Gore, a truly terrible decision.
3. As Vice President, Gore was more than a figurehead. He was a true # 2 man. He was involved in the reinventing government program under Clinton. Some will argue that he was the greatest Vice-President ever, for what it's worth.
Cons:
1. Gore had one challenger in the 2000 Democratic Primary, and nobody seriously thought that he would lose. This time, he would be one of about 10 candidates, and he would have to work much harder to win, with no guarantees.
2. Hillary Clinton is now a formidable figure, and I can't see Gore going up against his old boss's wife. This wouldn't exactly be comfortable.
3. Other past candidates are not going away. Edwards will almost certainly run 2008, and Kerry is still keeping his options open. This makes getting the nomination that much tougher.
4. In 1988, 1992, 1996, and 2000, Gore ran for either President or Vice-President. In 1992, 1996, and 2000, he was involved in the general election. This has to take a lot out of a person. Does he really want to endure another grueling election at this point, particularly a harder one than 2000?
5. The 2000 election is a painful memory and Gore, like it or not, is its symbol. This may make Democrats weary.
6. Gore endorsed Howard Dean in the 2004 primary. I don't think that he would have made an endorsement if he thought he was going run again anytime soon.
The pros are very, very strong. I still think that he clearly has the best upside of any candidate when you think of credentials. However, the cons add up pretty quickly. With this in mind, it is a virtual certainty in my mind that Gore will not run in 2008.
So what to make of Gore's presidential future? Well, if we're talking about Gore in 2012, we have serious problems in the Democratic Party. It means that we lost in 2008, and we are having trouble getting good, new candidates. So while I like Al Gore, I hope he's not running in 2012, for all of our sakes!
I think that Gore will remain a vital part of the Democratic Party as an elder statesman. Not as important as Bill Clinton, obviously, but still very important. He gave a great speech recently denouncing the nuclear option, and cannot be ignored. I just don't think his role will be as President.