I know, I'm a bit obsessive about my home state. I do not want to see it vote for Bush again. It is your classic swing state.
President Bush is scheduled to give the commencement address to LSU graduates this May. He also, according to my friend down there (I am still visiting parents in UT), will start running ads in the next week or so. Two weeks ago, the campaign reported that they would not air ads in LA unless Kerry made inroads.
There should be no doubt now. LA is in play, and a HUGE opportunity for Democrats. 9 votes in LA is equivalent to WV and NH. Win here, despite the small, but annoying Nader vote, and Kerry can offset the damage that Nader may do to him in those states, particularly NH. Polls I've seen show that if Bush wins NH, it will be due to Nader, and not Bush himself.
LA is in play. It's a big opportunity I think. All statewide offices but one held by Democrats, and that office (Sec of State) held by a turncoat, former Democrat, who, rumor has it, may switch back. Popular John Breaux will be on the campaign trail to make sure his seat doesn't go GOP. Kerry's Catholicism won't hurt either. Neither will a reminder of Bush's attempt to screw LA when it came to sugar.
Take away LA and Bush is in serious trouble.