It's clear that there has been no significant shift in the climate of Florida (the political one, at least), as it has received pounding after pounding by natural storms in the last few weeks. Apart from Floridians, the most frustrated group through this hurricane season must be pollsters, who have to cope with power outages, downed phone lines, and fled residents that throw off their careful samplings.
If Kerry can manage a victory in Florida, he could win the presidency even if he loses some Midwestern states. But how will Frances, Charley, Ivan, and Jeanne affect the Sunshine State's electorate in November? Here are some thoughts for discussion...
Advantages for Bush:
-Gets to look presidential with his brother the governor.
-Will promise and take credit for tons of money in emergency federal aid.
-Will reap benefits of basement prayers that promise obedience to God's anti-gay will.
Advantages for Kerry:
-Florida seems to have missed coverage of Bush's bounce.
-First debate will give Kerry a great opportunity to re-introduce himself, as Bush remains a known quantity.
-Big Government pays off, as federal aid money and relief workers descend on the state.
-Pronounced need for National Guard staying inside the nation instead of playing policeman in Iraq.
-Frustration with slow-moving insurance companies, who are already lobbying GOP leaders for ways to get out of their obligation.
-Possible attention paid to global climate and need for better environmental regulations.
-Realization that, at any moment, you could lose your home and/or job, which makes social program safety nets all the more important and worthy.